WI: Republicans win the Spanish Civil War

[Ellie]

I'm pretty sure this has been discussed many times before, but what if the Republicans won the Spanish Civil War? Would this have an effect on World War II?

 

[Locke01]

I'm pretty sure this has been discussed many times before, but what if the Republicans won the Spanish Civil War? Would this have an effect on World War II?

Republican Spain was essentially a Soviet client state, so a win there for them will be give Stalin a foothold in Western Europe. Hitler will find that utterly unacceptable. I would expect that the Vichy ''Free Zone'' to be much smaller than it was historically, with enlarged German rights to move troops and have them stationed on the French border with Spain. Once Hitler goes to war with the USSR, I think a full scale German attack on Spain would be inevitable. When that attack would happen, I don't know. I'm not at all certain the Wehrmacht is up to mounting a simultaneous invasion of both Spain and Russia at the same time. Might be put off until the Allies mount Operation Torch.

 

[usertron2020]

Depends a lot on whether the victors are communist dominated, and if so, how strictly controlled are they by Moscow. Could make Barbarossa very messy if that were to happen.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Locke01

Would make Torch VERY interesting. And a German invasion of Communist Spain could be a real Class One Clusterf---. Might require a lesser attempt towards Moscow, or further pullbacks in NA. Or perhaps with less pressure in NA, the British can send more troops to Burma to prevent its fall, preventing the Bengal Famine, with all its butterflies.

 

[rush4you]

Depends a lot on whether the victors are communist dominated, and if so, how strictly controlled are they by Moscow. Could make Barbarossa very messy if that were to happen.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Locke01

Would make Torch VERY interesting. And a German invasion of Communist Spain could be a real Class One Clusterf---. Might require a lesser attempt towards Moscow, or further pullbacks in NA. Or perhaps with less pressure in NA, the British can send more troops to Burma to prevent its fall, preventing the Bengal Famine, with all its butterflies.

I doubt Germany will attack Spain, Hitler won't be willing to sacrifice manpower against the huge wall that is the Pyrenees mountains, not while Barbarossa is his main priority. Perhaps Italy or Vichy France would try something but ultimately fail, as the UK and France will try to reinforce Spain in order to keep a foothold in the continent.

 

[snerfuplz]

Would be best if the war ends without the Communist coup of Republican Forces. Soviet directed Communists would still be a big part of a coalition government. I wonder if Hitler would launch an invasion of Spain after the fall of France.

 

[usertron2020]

Would be best if the war ends without the Communist coup of Republican Forces. Soviet directed Communists would still be a big part of a coalition government. I wonder if Hitler would launch an invasion of Spain after the fall of France.

Considering the shattered condition of the Spanish Army in 1940, and the time Hitler would have pre-Barbarossa, its possible. Remember that he didn't know that Benny would get the bright idea of invading Greece, or that Yugoslavia would go south on him. If all that happens, Barbarossa could wind up being considering more anemic than OTL. They still do very well. But maybe Typhoon never happens, or the siege of Leningrad is less severe, or the Soviet armies around Kiev manage to escape.

 

[MattII]

A lot depends on when they win, a quick victory in 1936 for example has dramatically different outcomes compared to a pyrrhic victory in 1938.

 

[Gregg]

Republican Spain was essentially a Soviet client state

The Republican side only became a Soviet client after Negrin took over and brought the PCE into the centre of government. Keep either Giral or Largo in power long enough for a Republican victory, and the Communists will never be more than a minor influence; even with Negrin leading, have Britain and France come to the Republic's aid and the Soviets probably won't be relevant. Republican Spain became a Soviet client because Russia was the only country that came to the aid of the democratically-elected government.

 

[Colin]

Personally I think that the only option for a Republican victory is for the coup in 1936 to fail, once we get into the civil war proper the (admittedly at times marginally ) greater ability of the Nationalists to mobilise militarily and the greater help that they were able to bring in internationally and finally the greater internal unity that Franco was able to impose meant that with a lengthy civil war they are by far the most likely victors.

If the coup of 1936 failed and somehow (and given the state of Spain in 1936 this is a very big ask) the Republic got back on track then the communist influence would be minor, it was only the aid that Russia gave Spain that gave the Communist party such huge leverage within the republic.

There is somewhere a very good timeline on this site where the coup fails, (basically because Franco doesn't support it) and then plays the consequences of that out throughout the second world war. I have tried to look for it but couldn't find it so sorry no link available. My memory of it was that the consequence led to a German invasion of Spain. As others have stated not sure if that would have happened.

The absence of the Spanish Civil war might have had other consequences, including perhaps a lessening of the climate of ideological conflict, which ironically may have made the left more pacifist, post 1936 the left was more belligerent in the UK and would have been unlikely to take a George Lansbury type attitude towards Hitler. Also the Spanish civil war helped to bind Mussolini to the Axis, particularly with the very heavy participation of Italian 'volunteers' in Spain. I would be interested to see a timeline which focused on the political/diplomatic effect of there not being a Spanish Civil war rather than purely the military ones, but also one that took into account the consequent trajectory of spanish history. Sorry I haven't got the time/resources to do this myself.