What if the Republican Party won the 2006 midterms and retained their congressional majorities? How could this be done-with any PoD after November 2, 2004. If you need a PoD earlier than that, don't cheat by making John Kerry President for instance(as that is a completely different scenario with much bigger ramifications-as I explored in my TL-see sig). Here are my alternate 2006 results:
2006 Senate elections
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 53-2 45.8%
Harry Reid-Democratic: 45+1 49.2%
Independent: 2+1
100 seats
51 for majority

Missouri: Incumbent Jim Talent(R) defeats Claire McCaskill(D)
Montana: Incumbent Conrad Burns(R) defeats Jon Tester(D)
Rhode Island: Incumbent Lincoln Chaffee(R) defeats Sheldon Whitehouse(D)
Virginia: Incumbent George Allen(R) defeats Jim Webb(D)

2006 House elections
Dennis Hastert-Republican: 227-5 48.3%
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 207+5 48.3%
435 seats
218 for majority

Arizona 5: Incumbent JD Hayworth(R) defeats Harry Mitchell(D)
California 11: Incumbent Richard Pombo(R) defeats Jerry McNerney(D)
Connecticut 2: Incumbent Rob Simmons(R) defeats Joe Courtney(D)
Florida 16 stays Republican
Florida 22: Incumbent Clay Shaw(R) defeats Ron Klein(D)
Georgia 8: Mac Collins(R) defeats incumbent Jim Marshall(D)
Georgia 12: Max Burns(R) defeats incumbent John Barrow(D)
Illinois 8: David McSweeney(R) defeats incumbent Melissa Bean(D)
Indiana 2: Incumbent Chris Cocola(R) defeats Joe Donnelly(D)
Indiana 7: Eric Dickerson(R) defeats incumbent Julia Carson(D)
Indiana 9: Incumbent Mike Sodrel(R) defeats Baron Hill(D)
Iowa 2: Incumbent Jim Leach(R) defeats David Loebsack(D)
Iowa 3: Jeff Lamberti(R) defeats incumbent Leonard Boswell(D)
Kansas 2: Incumbent Jim Ryun(R) defeats Nancy Boyda(D)
Kentucky 3: Incumbent Ann Northup(R) defeats John Yarmuth(D)
Minnesota 1: Incumbent Gil Gutknecht(R) defeats Tim Walz(D)
New Hampshire 1: Incumbent Jeb Bradley(R) defeats Carol Shea-Porter(D)
New Hampshire 2: Incumbent Charie Bass(R) defeats Paul Hodes(D)
New York 14: Incumbent Sue Kelly(R) defeats John Hall(D)
New York 20: Incumbent John Sweeney(R) defeats Kirsten Gillibrand(D)
North Carolina 11: Incumbent Charles Taylor(R) defeats Heath Shuler(D)
Pennsylvania 4: Incumbent Melissa Hart(R) defeats Jason Altmire(D)
Pennsylvania 8: Incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick(R) defeats Patrick Murphy(D)
Pennsylvania 10: Incumbent Don Sherwood(R) defeats Chris Carney(D)
Wisconsin 8: John Gard(R) defeats Steve Kagen(D)

2006 gubernatorial elections
Mitt Romney-Republican: 28-3
Bill Richardson-Democratic: 28+3

Maine: Chandler Woodcock(R) defeats incumbent John Baldacci(D)
Maryland: Incumbent Bob Ehrlich(R) defeats Martin O'Malley(D)
Wisconsin: Mark Green(R) defeats incumbent Jim Doyle(R)

What would be the effects of these results? How would George W Bush's term as President go differently? What would be the impact on the 2008 election and the next presidency? What if?
 
The obvious POD is get rid of the Foley scandal. Republican numbers actually looked like they would hold for much of that year until the scandal broke.
 
The obvious POD is get rid of the Foley scandal. Republican numbers actually looked like they would hold for much of that year until the scandal broke.

Perhaps but I believe the Democrats were actually already in the lead at the time. It could have cost Republicans extra seats and the Senate but they were already in deep trouble by that point. Bush's approval was also pretty low.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/house/us/generic_congressional_ballot-22.html
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  • Butterfly Katrina and subsequently FEMA's "heck of a job" in NOLA.
  • Butterfly the oil price shocks that started in 2006/2007.
  • No Kennedy-Kyl immigration reform bill, which got all the right wing border hawks mad at the Republicans.
  • Bush doesn't even try to nominate Harriet Meirs to the Supreme Court.
 
The crash of 2008 might hit earlier and harder due to more deregulation. The Republicans would be forced to do a economic bail out that would be a lot more "business friendly" with little oversight and a lot of missing money. If the Bush 43 administration was true to form ,the banks would be bailed out but the little guy wouldn't be ignored so much as actively screwed over.
2008 would be an absolute bloodbath for the GOP Obama (or another nominee) would easily get 400+ electoral votes.
 
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The crash of 2008 might hit earlier and harder due to more deregulation. The Republicans would be forced to do a economic bail out that would be a lot more "business friendly" with little oversight.2008 would be an absolute bloodbath for the GOP Obama (or another nominee) would easily get 400+ electoral votes.
Nah.
 
The difficulty is that the GOP's fundamental problem in 2006 was Iraq, and there was no quick fix for that.

Of course with a few close races going in their direction, the GOP could have retained control of the Senate, but they would have lost it in 2008 after the economic meltdown. Still, a larger GOP minority in the Senate in 2009-2010 (due to a slightly better showing in 2006) could have had consequences in terms of making it much harder to pass the ACA, etc.
 
The difficulty is that the GOP's fundamental problem in 2006 was Iraq, and there was no quick fix for that.

Of course with a few close races going in their direction, the GOP could have retained control of the Senate, but they would have lost it in 2008 after the economic meltdown. Still, a larger GOP minority in the Senate in 2009-2010 (due to a slightly better showing in 2006) could have had consequences in terms of making it much harder to pass the ACA, etc.
yep.
Dems would not get 60 seats in the Senate for sure. At best they have 55 or so. Even with 2 indies added you are looking at 57.
Obamacare is likely DOA if Obama can't get any major amount of Republican support for the final bill.
 
Rumsfeld retires after the 2004 election and someone new gets promoted in as SecDef that would catch the mistaken strategy in Iraq and start the surge earlier. Also, you need to find a way to eliminate a lot of the scandals. I think it was the "Culture of Corruption" that sunk the GOP that election cycle
 
If they actually got Bin Laden a few days before the vote they might be able to talk with confidence about foreign policy again.
 
Rumsfeld resigns in mid 2005, a competent Katrina response, butterfly Harriet Miers and nominate Alito in October 2005. Retire Tom Delay and Mark Foley in 2004. Retire Conrad Burns of Montana in 2006. George Allen doesn't mention macaca. Kill Bin Laden on May 11 2006 or 5 years prior. The republicans may lose the House but definitely retain the Senate at least 50-50.
 
The difficulty is that the GOP's fundamental problem in 2006 was Iraq, and there was no quick fix for that.

Of course with a few close races going in their direction, the GOP could have retained control of the Senate, but they would have lost it in 2008 after the economic meltdown. Still, a larger GOP minority in the Senate in 2009-2010 (due to a slightly better showing in 2006) could have had consequences in terms of making it much harder to pass the ACA, etc.
Which might encourage smashing the filibuster by the Democrats to get their agenda through.
 
Which might encourage smashing the filibuster by the Democrats to get their agenda through.

No, they were just not going to do that. (Or at least enough of them were unwilling to do that to make it unlikely.) They were very well aware that their majority would be unlikely to last forever...
 
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