WI: Republican Split in 1880?

In 1880, tensions within the Republican party were approaching their boiling point. Roscoe Conkling and the Stalwart faction coalesced around Ulysses S. Grant, while the Half-Breeds were angling to nominate James G. Blaine. John Sherman was the favorite of many who did not fall into either camp.

What if one faction (likely the Half-Breeds) leaves the convention, nominating their own candidate, making for a three way race? We can say Garfield dies shortly before the RNC, and no other suitable compromise candidate emerges. Assuming Grant and Blaine are the rival nominees (though Sherman could become the Half-Breed nominee), is it inevitable Grant's popularity will make him the victor?

@David T?
 
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Blaine was loyal to Grant, it's doubtful he would run a third party against him. However, Blaine was vitriolically opposed to Roscoe Conkling, and he was not alone. Say something along the lines of Grant declines interest in another term, and Conkling seeks the presidency for himself. A deadlocked convention that somehow leads to Conkling being nominated would be the straw that broke the camels back. Throughout the 70s Blaine was urged by many to form a new, reformist party, but ultimately refused and stayed loyal to the Republicans. With Conkling at risk of becoming president, perhaps Blaine finally makes that third party (perhaps a Reform Party 115 years early?). He has little chance of winning but probably hopes that winning some New England states could toss the election to the house and overcome Conkling there. Regardless, his plans probably fall through and we get a Democratic president from vote splitting (even if Grant were the nominee). Who the democratic candidate is could be totally different from Winfield Scott Hancock, as the Democrats also had a deadlocked convention and no presumptive nominee, meaning tons of butterflies from a Republican Split.
 
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