WI: Republican Spain wins Civil War
- Thread starter Onyx
- Start date
Only to be a part of the post-war negotiations a la Turkey. Even then, I think the only thing a Spanish Republic would be interested in is Gibraltar, and they're simply not a strong enough ally to warrant that.
We're assuming that the Liberals/Socialists win the post-war dust-up against the Communists. If Spain is Communist and a Soviet client, than all bets are off. Heck, given the Pact which made the Soviets and Nazis allies, I wouldn't put it past Churchill to launch another Peninsular War in support of Spanish non-Communists in retaliation. Which would bring the Wehrmacht into Spain to support the Communists just to keep the British out. Which would etc., etc., etc.
We're assuming that the Liberals/Socialists win the post-war dust-up against the Communists. If Spain is Communist and a Soviet client, than all bets are off. Heck, given the Pact which made the Soviets and Nazis allies, I wouldn't put it past Churchill to launch another Peninsular War in support of Spanish non-Communists in retaliation. Which would bring the Wehrmacht into Spain to support the Communists just to keep the British out. Which would etc., etc., etc.
The Germans would be nuts to invade Spain;
a country with a completely ruined infrastructure and 100 of 1000s of people to feed. There are also plenty people with military skills in the civilian population with a dislike for fascists.
To make matters worse, after the military conquest of Spain (inevitably if Germany chooses to do so) Spain will always remain a festering sore for Germany, demanding many more troops then the partisans in Yugoslavia ever needed to be controlled.
Spain would be equally mad to join the allies for the same reasons. Completely devestated countries don't tend to do good in wars and the government of Spain would know so.
a country with a completely ruined infrastructure and 100 of 1000s of people to feed. There are also plenty people with military skills in the civilian population with a dislike for fascists.
To make matters worse, after the military conquest of Spain (inevitably if Germany chooses to do so) Spain will always remain a festering sore for Germany, demanding many more troops then the partisans in Yugoslavia ever needed to be controlled.
Spain would be equally mad to join the allies for the same reasons. Completely devestated countries don't tend to do good in wars and the government of Spain would know so.
Id disagree that theyd be more of a hassle than Yugoslavia.Unless like Yugoslavia there was a poor demilitarisation of the Spanish army to speed up readiness for Barbarossa
Ensuring starving populations were fed didn't seem to concern the Germans overmuch in WW2. Guerillas would probably on the Yugoslavian level, or even more, but in practice Germany would install some Franco figure and have him put them down with domestic forces. Whoever wins the civil war is not going to be forgiving to the loser, well, barring a major change in the entire scope of the war to OTL, which will inevitably lead to a substantial number of people more than happy to oppress their fellow countrymen with a group of German overseers looking on just to make sure Madrid remembers whose boss.
Its pretty pointless given there is no real wealth to be extracted from Spain, and will probably result in yet another number of German divisions sitting in a foreign country rather than on a front where they might do some good, but it could certainly be done. Ignoring butterflies, its hard to see Hitler just leaving the country there if it has had a communist revolution or has strong positive relations with Britain once France has been defeated.
Ofcourse Spain going communist seems pretty unlikely, but unless communists fold up overnight the conflict for Spain's future seems likely to alter events in Europe quite enough to have significant butterflies over WW2.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
3 possibilities;
1. Spain is a somewhat democratic left leaning state, neutral in WW2 and the Cold War
2. Spain is a Pro- Soviet state, could probably join WW2 at some point after Normandy. Pro- Soviet in the Cold War, economically isolated. Regime collapsing in the late 80s (if not sooner).
3. Spain is a non- aligned Marxist State, neutral in WW2, neutral in the Cold War. Would still have had troubles in trade relations with the West.
1. Spain is a somewhat democratic left leaning state, neutral in WW2 and the Cold War
2. Spain is a Pro- Soviet state, could probably join WW2 at some point after Normandy. Pro- Soviet in the Cold War, economically isolated. Regime collapsing in the late 80s (if not sooner).
3. Spain is a non- aligned Marxist State, neutral in WW2, neutral in the Cold War. Would still have had troubles in trade relations with the West.
Yugoslavia had excellent relations with the US and Britain, and a poor one with the Soviet Union.
Zimmerwald1915
Banned
Yeah, but Yugoslavia didn't have territorial ambitions against one of the major Allies
[/devil's advocate]
Onyx
Banned
Prehaps if germany invaded Rep. Spain, they would've installed the surviving nationalists and falangists as a puppet, and if Franco was alive still by escaping, Hitler would've put him under control.
Gibraltar would've been captured by any means of Germany to cut off supplies and start a East North African campaign, and the Allies would've a much more tougher campaign in North Africa, if the allies took over North Africa or were having a hard time, they would've just start a campaign in Spain, Spain would've probably be capitulated like italy did, and germans would just retreat to the Pyerenees.
This might've helped D-Day in which they attack Southern France, and would've gave the Germans a hard time in defending france, France and Italy could've been freed earlier.
This is just my opinion but it could've happened if Rep Spain was invaded
Gibraltar would've been captured by any means of Germany to cut off supplies and start a East North African campaign, and the Allies would've a much more tougher campaign in North Africa, if the allies took over North Africa or were having a hard time, they would've just start a campaign in Spain, Spain would've probably be capitulated like italy did, and germans would just retreat to the Pyerenees.
This might've helped D-Day in which they attack Southern France, and would've gave the Germans a hard time in defending france, France and Italy could've been freed earlier.
This is just my opinion but it could've happened if Rep Spain was invaded
The Soviets didn't want control of Spain - they wanted a strong liberal/social democratic republic backed with an influential and moderate Communist party. The interesting question is what has happened to the anarchists and their CNT, and the leftist POUM in a republican victory?
I suspect a republican Spain would have had to remain neutral for the reasons others have given, but it may have become a haven for the French resistance, which might have forced German incursions if not outright invasion.
Spike,
You might want to check out Dr. Strangelove's No Spanish Civil War TL.
link
Not a Republican "victory"; more of a SCW "avoided", but it addresses some of your questions and is a fun read.
You might want to check out Dr. Strangelove's No Spanish Civil War TL.
link
Not a Republican "victory"; more of a SCW "avoided", but it addresses some of your questions and is a fun read.
I think to answer this PoD it is Realy important how and why the republic's forces won over the nationals since the germans, soviets and italians all where involved there and learned alote doing so.
so if the republic won because for instance hitler didn't send the condor legion the answer might be completely diffrent than for instance the republic wins because stronger soviet involvment or maybe france and or british intervention on the side of the republic.
so i would say that the how strongly influances the answer to this PoD.
so if the republic won because for instance hitler didn't send the condor legion the answer might be completely diffrent than for instance the republic wins because stronger soviet involvment or maybe france and or british intervention on the side of the republic.
so i would say that the how strongly influances the answer to this PoD.
For the Republicans to win Spain would almost need to be communist since militarily the Stalinists (whatever their faults) were better organized than the other Republicans the POUN were anarchists and anarchists seen to suck at instigating military discipline and clear command structures for some reason, and the left-librals were also in disarray.
Not necessarily. All you need is for Britain or France to support the more moderate leftists, and they'll probably win thanks to sheer weight of material.
It all depends on when and how the republic wins. If it is at the start of the war, the non-communists remain in power. Let's say that the coup is aborted on time or the army from Morocco is not allowed to croos into Spain.
But if the republicans win later on, say in 1938, they can olny do so thanks to commuinst weapons and advisers and to the better organization of the PCE (Spanish communist party).
But then a communist spain changes all ww2. Hitler can only attack west, as in OTL, after a non-agression pact with Stalin. But this pact prevents him from invading Spain after France falls, otherwise the pact will be over and Stalin in a war mode. But Hitler cannot attack the URSS in summer '41 leaving on his back a stalinist ally. So he is in a dire position. He may very well try to defeat the british or take them from the war before going after the russians and the spaniards.
But if the republicans win later on, say in 1938, they can olny do so thanks to commuinst weapons and advisers and to the better organization of the PCE (Spanish communist party).
But then a communist spain changes all ww2. Hitler can only attack west, as in OTL, after a non-agression pact with Stalin. But this pact prevents him from invading Spain after France falls, otherwise the pact will be over and Stalin in a war mode. But Hitler cannot attack the URSS in summer '41 leaving on his back a stalinist ally. So he is in a dire position. He may very well try to defeat the british or take them from the war before going after the russians and the spaniards.