WI: Republican Spain Victory

I am thinking of the No Spanish Civil War TL that had Republican Spain joining the Allied side in WWII. I think this is a possiblity. There would be a Spanish front during mid to late 1940, maybe longer.
 

Dirk_Pitt

Banned
I am thinking of the No Spanish Civil War TL that had Republican Spain joining the Allied side in WWII. I think this is a possiblity. There would be a Spanish front during mid to late 1940, maybe longer.

I doubt that. The Spanish, wether republican or Nationalist, just didn't have the war making capabilities to fight the Nazis. The Spanish weren't stupid. A different ideology doesn't change that.
 

Deleted member 1487

Bad news for Germany. Spain sold her significant amounts of tungsten during the war, helped her in the submarine war, allow significant transshipments of goods during the war, and provided a fair number of men for the Axis armies in Russia. Here the Germans might well have to invade if the Spanish enter the war during or before Barbarossa. If the Republicans win, I think it will be earlier thanks to them controlling more territory early on. An 'all in' USSR would make the post-SCW regime a puppet of the USSR, as the Soviets really purged the ranks of the Spanish Republican leadership during the war.
I think we'd see a very different WW2 in that case. Germany would be worse off in many ways, so we'd likely see the war over quicker, maybe in 1944.

Just a quick sketch of events:
SCW ends in 1937-8 and Spain ends up a communist state, but less damaged by the war. Purges continue for years of the fascist elements and even less pro-communist leftists. France and Spain buddy up to balance the Soviet influence.
Germany is handed her first foreign policy defeat, as is Spain. Still both gain valuable, though more limited, experience and improve their forces based on that.
Because the war doesn't last as long the Luftwaffe doesn't rely as much on the Spanish experience and has its limited number of pilots training, instead of on combat operations. The quality of the combat units of the Luftwaffe is improved, but this is balanced by the lesser experienced gained in the shorter war.

WW2 happens on time, though now with Spain sending troops to fight with France. No real change, just Spanish prisoners in German prison camps after France surrenders. If Spain is officially at war, which is not a guarantee, then they might continue to fight with British support or cut a deal. I'm not sure which. Perhaps the French government retreats to Spain? Whatever the situation its messier than IOTL. Germany either has to invade or guard Spain. The Spanish probably help the British in the Battle of the Atlantic, which also forces the Portugese to help the British, as they have a buffer from other Fascist powers, so can operate with cover. This opens the Azores to the Allies in 1940-1, which brings the Battle of the Atlantic to a close sooner.

German industry runs dry of critical goods sooner, which causes problems in 1943-4. If Barbarossa is launched, which it might not be if Spain and Britain are bigger threats in 1941, too big to be ignored, then it is weaker because of the lack of resources that Spain provided IOTL, Britain is stronger thanks to a weaker Uboat offensive, Gibraltar is much much more secure and effective in closing the Straight off, German forces have to be diverted to guard against Spanish entry into the war, France is probably much more restive with pro-Allied Spain letting the British and later US operate spies in Southern France, and because Germany has no Spanish soldiers on the Eastern Front (other than perhaps whatever Fascist Spanish troops flee to Germany and Italy after the SCW).

By 1942 Spain is a major threat, as it gives the Allies an entry point into continental Europe. I think Germany has to invade by this point, otherwise Operation Torch is launched in/from Spain into France. Spain, if neutral, is bribed by tons of economic aid from the US and gets massive infrastructure upgrades to support the Allied armies, which help the Spanish economy immensely postwar compared to OTL.
1942-3 sees France turn into a second front, meaning the Italian campaign is pushed off and Vichy, if it exists, ceases to exist the minute the Allies land in Spain. Its gets totally occupied by the Germans and the Free French become a problem in Africa. Italy probably stays in the war longer, as it is not the focus of an invasion, but it is probably driven out of Africa by mid-1943 easily.

In fact if the US is in the war and might land in Spain, then the Axis don't launch operation Blue and instead remain on the defensive in the East in 1942. They get pulled in each direction earlier and more brutally, especially as the Soviets don't have to go through the losses of the German 1942 offensive. Of course the Germans don't experience the losses of Stalingrad or probably Tunisia, but they don't get to the Donbass, nor its incredibly important resources, meaning the German economy does worse than IOTL. Still without the encirclements that the Germans historically experienced in 1943, they are a bigger defensive threat and probably hurt the allies much worse than IOTL in the defensive campaigns of 1942-3. Still the Allies gain more combat experience quicker and can replace their losses much more easily. They also have continental airbases, so can really start their attrition campaign against Axis infrastructure close to the battlefield in France earlier, which will grind down the Luftwaffe far from home out of the inadequate airbases in Southern France. The Uboat threat is pretty much eliminated by 1942 in this scenario.

Its pretty much a matter of opinion from this point on how the war progresses, but I think it is very likely the war ends by late 1944 at the latest.

Spain is much better off economically, as it gets massive infusions of cash, both spending by soldiers and direct aid to the government, plus infrastructure upgrades courtesy of the US and British military campaigns, and access to the post war aid programs AND won't be locked out of international trade as they were IOTL.
So far Spain it is a major win, as it is for Europe as a whole, even Germany. France not so much, as it became a bloodier battleground, but probably for everyone else, even Germany, where an earlier defeat means less casualties overall.
 

Deleted member 1487

I doubt that. The Spanish, wether republican or Nationalist, just didn't have the war making capabilities to fight the Nazis. The Spanish weren't stupid. A different ideology doesn't change that.

Spain didn't, but as part of an alliance, it would have foreign troops doing the fighting on its very defensible border with France, plus foreign production supplying the weapons. France would probably retreat to Spain to keep fighting if Spain was an active belligerent in WW2 from 1939 on. When the USA gets involved Spain is going to be the major front for US troops from 1942 on.

If they stay neutral they can aid the Allies in all sorts of ways; even just denying the Axis the services they provided IOTL hurts the Axis significantly. Plus once the US is ready to base troops in Spain then they will enter the war.
 
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