WI Republic of Sonora/Lower California succeeds?

SunDeep

Banned
If William Walker succeeds in establishing his independent republic with the long-term aim of integration into the Union, as with Texas (either consolidating his gains after establishing the Republic of Lower California, or by garnering the reserves, manpower and motivation among his men to establish control over his declared Republic of Sonora in its entirety), how might it affect things? Could it have still been possible for the US to make other deals with the Mexicans, such as the Gadsden Purchase? And how would its existence- either as an independent bordering nation explicitly supporting the institution of slavery, or as a fully fledged member of the CSA- affect the scope, path and outcome of the US Civil War?
 

Dorozhand

Banned
If William Walker succeeds in establishing his independent republic with the long-term aim of integration into the Union, as with Texas (either consolidating his gains after establishing the Republic of Lower California, or by garnering the reserves, manpower and motivation among his men to establish control over his declared Republic of Sonora in its entirety), how might it affect things? Could it have still been possible for the US to make other deals with the Mexicans, such as the Gadsden Purchase? And how would its existence- either as an independent bordering nation explicitly supporting the institution of slavery, or as a fully fledged member of the CSA- affect the scope, path and outcome of the US Civil War?

An independent Republic of Sonora would actually be kind of interesting. Especially of Sinaloa, Chihuahua, and Baja California join it. Even more if Alta California decides to join to create a "Pacific Federation".

William Walker never had a chance though.
 
If William Walker succeeds in establishing his independent...Republic of Sonora in its entirety), how might it affect things? Could it have still been possible for the US to make other deals with the Mexicans, such as the Gadsden Purchase?

Nearly all of the Gadsden Purchase was in Sonora, and would have been under Walker's control.

If so, Mexico would be more inclined to 'sell' it and also the larger area the US offered to buy, which extended to all Sonora and Baja California at maximum.

The question is whether the US would pay Mexico anything, or just try to deal with Walker alone.

And how would its existence- either as an independent bordering nation explicitly supporting the institution of slavery,

There's a problem. Walker's pro-slavery agenda would alienate northerners. It's possible that the difference might be split - the US supporting "Sonora" only if slavery was not introduced. And it's hard to see what use slaves would be in Sonora.

...or as a fully fledged member of the CSA- affect the scope, path and outcome of the US Civil War?

Independent Sonora would have trouble connecting to the CSA. I think the US would mount an expedition from California to get rid of Walker and his pro-CSA forces.

BTW, this could have a major knock-on for California politics in the 1850s. California, though a free state, was politically dominated by the "Chivalry", the pro-Southern wing of the Democrats. If there is a slave state of Sonora, many of the Chivalry and their supporters may go there, leaving California to swing Republican earlier.
 

SunDeep

Banned
Nearly all of the Gadsden Purchase was in Sonora, and would have been under Walker's control.

Except for the disputed areas in south-east Arizona, southern New Mexico and the Mesilla Valley, where James Gadsden's original proposal for the purchase IOTL called for the construction of a railroad and highway, connecting the slave states which later formed the CSA with a proposed slave state in Southern California.

ITTL, with the Pacific slave state already in existence, there'd be even more motivation in the South to get that connection in place a soon as possible- but opposition to the Gadsden Purchase by anti-slavery senators would also be increased for the exact same reason, and the Mexican people would certainly perceive the sale of any further territory to the warmongering Americans as even more of a national betrayal than they did IOTL.

Of course, even if they did make the purchase (OTL territory or less- getting the purchase of a larger area through the US Senate would be pretty ASB in this scenario, unless Lower California/Sonora has already seceded to the Union by this stage and swayed the vote), and get the transport links up and running before the outbreak of the Civil War, they'd still be connected to the CSA via a pretty thin strip of land- albeit still pretty tough going for any potential Union expeditionary force, due to the harsh conditions in the region.
 
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