WI: Republic of China (Taiwan) invades the mainland in the 60's-early 70's?

During the Cultural Revolution, assuming that the PRC is in disarray. If the Republic of China had invaded, how much progress would they make, if any?
 
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They'd have local air superiority for a while in the Straits, but any invasion force would be utterly wrecked by massed Chinese armor and possibly nuclear weapons.
 
The obvious question is "How?" They are going to need massive direct American support which would probably result in a Sino-American War, as said above if China ended up totally FUBAR'd in the 1960's, which isn't impossible, then they may try something but would the USSR be prepared to see China fall to a close American ally even with the Sino-Soviet split?
 
The obvious question is "How?" They are going to need massive direct American support which would probably result in a Sino-American War, as said above if China ended up totally FUBAR'd in the 1960's, which isn't impossible, then they may try something but would the USSR be prepared to see China fall to a close American ally even with the Sino-Soviet split?
Would the RoC army actually be strong enough, even in the context of a great period of disarray for the PRC, to reach Beijing or some such?
 
No. They haven't the manpower nor the quality of training nor the quantity of war materiel to even attempt the feat. They might be able to temporarily seize some of the coastal cities in Fujian Province, but it wouldn't take long for their forces to be driven back into the sea.
 
I am wondering if the Cultural Revolution did turn out to become a lot worse there would be a lot more resentment then described in OTL if Chiang would not use that to his advantage while invading. One way he could is if Mao tried to remain Chairman after the the Great Leap Forward. He can make deals with local government officials and discruntled generals on the mainland who, while still socialist, stiill happened to be at the rough end of the Little Red Book. President Chiang Kai-shek can present himself as a humbled and learned man from exile and willing to allow left leaning members within his government while committed to acquiring whatever he can to save his motherland from an obviously inept rule.

It may not help him take over all of mainland China but the ROC could bring in the Southeast provinces such as Hubei where actual sectarian fighting took place between rival red army regiments. As for how he would get the military hardware to do it, it would be from his former WWII foe Japan in a way they produced much of the supplies that US forces used in the Korean War. This would certainly create a sticky situation within the UN, but perhaps the US and other western powers would remain steadfast while the ROC still reprisented China on the Security Councel.
 
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I am wondering if the Cultural Revolution did turn out to become a lot worse there would be a lot more resentment then described in OTL if Chiang would not use that to his advantage while invading. One way he could is if Mao tried to remain Chairman after the the Great Leap Forward. He can make deals with local government officials and discruntled generals on the mainland who, while still socialist, stiill happened to be at the rough end of the Little Red Book. President Chiang Kai-shek can present himself as a humbled and learned man from exile and willing to allow left leaning members within his government while committed to acquiring whatever he can to save his motherland from an obviously inept rule

It may not help him take over all of mainland China but the ROC could bring in the Southeast provinces such as Hubei where actual sectarian fighting took place between rival red army regiments. As for how he would get the military hardware to do it, it would be from his former WWII foe Japan in a way they produced much of the supplies that US forces used in the Korean War. This would certainly create a sticky situation within the UN, but perhaps the US and other western powers would remain steadfast while the ROC still reprisented China on the Security Councel..

Why would the US want to engage in brinkmanship over a few provinces of China? The US was willing to let the Nationalists sink on Formosa until the Korean War, Washington is not suddenly going to risk war with Communist China over Chiang's ambition. Especially when they're trying to get them and the Soviets to back off supporting North Vietnam.
 
I remember hearing a story that once the RoC's army was on manuevers in the Taiwan Strait, and the soldiers were lead to believe it was the real thing. When they landed (on Taiwan obviously), the soldiers stormed the beach, tossed aside their weapons and threw up their hands. I've never found any evidence to support the story, but would the Chinese on Taiwan really have the motivation to overthrown the People's Dynasty?
 
Why would the US want to engage in brinkmanship over a few provinces of China? The US was willing to let the Nationalists sink on Formosa until the Korean War, Washington is not suddenly going to risk war with Communist China over Chiang's ambition. Especially when they're trying to get them and the Soviets to back off supporting North Vietnam.

Exactly, until the Korean War and Second Taiwan Strait Crisis in which the 1954 US-ROC Defence Treaty kicked in which assured its soveriegnty. If the PRC is worse off in stability while just as aggressive the US may want to expand on that scope if not a tad in response to events in Southeast Asia. It would not be unprecedented considering how they handled the situation between the two Koreas while also letting Indonesia and Malaysia go genocidal on communist geurillas there.

So to take into account what they allowed others to do without open support at the height of tensions during the Cold War I don't see policymakers in DC getting an inclination that either the USSR nor the PRC would give up supporting a fellow comunist regime, this isn't OTL up until 1973. In fact, a war in China maybe whats needed to take the heat off to help the French and South Vietnam. If the US saw the ROC as redundant and the PRC as a major red manace then it wouldn't be a stretch that they would tacidly egg on, even if it meant the ROC's defeat, to further their own interests in the region, such maneuvers have been done before and even fairly recent.
 
The Koumintang get thrashed quickly, people hugely underrate the degree to which Mao's cult of personality had permeated China. It is noteworthy that that the biggest ''rebel' groups in the PRC during the CR were trying to undermine the party & fighting each other to determine who was most loyal to Mao.

Also Chiang's armies were worthless, they were typical of tin-pot tyrant's troops. Good at bullying a population into line, useless in an actual battle.
 
idera

Hold the post office! If the chaos of the GPCR, was more known, the Generalissmo just might make an attempt. He offered to maintain current officials with raises, source Chang Kaishek talks to the nation 1967.
He also offered to abrogate martial law and restore the democratic 1947 Constitution with full freedom for mandates to stand.
I agree not likely, but not entirely impossible.
 
Although Ike publicly stated about "unleashing" Chiang, privately he was very much against it. I read that the US military attache and US MAAG group in Taiwan privately monitored any build-up of the ROC military, just in case.
 
Although Ike publicly stated about "unleashing" Chiang, privately he was very much against it. I read that the US military attache and US MAAG group in Taiwan privately monitored any build-up of the ROC military, just in case.

Exactly. The US got naval facilities to have their Pacific Fleet to port at, and didn't care enough to gamble with Chiang. The only territory I could realistically see the ROC seizing is Hainan, and that's hardly with war with the PRC.
 
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