WI: Rebellion of the Seven States brings down the Han Dynasty?

Dorozhand

Banned
What if the Rebellion of the Seven States brought down Han and started the Warring States Period all over again?
 
What if the Rebellion of the Seven States brought down Han and started the Warring States Period all over again?
I don't think that would happen. In order to survive, I don't think the seven rebelling states could survive unless they do something drastic. The seven states controlled a decent amount of land and power, but not a majority. The centrally-held areas under the commandery system, answerable only to the Emperor, was at least one third of the Han Dynasty and maybe up to one half. I've seen differing estimates. The seven states did not make up even the majority of the subordinate kingdoms. The commanderies, combined with the loyal princes, will be overwhelm the seven states unless the latter do something drastic, perhaps taking Chang'an. And if that happens, what's to prevent one of the leaders, perhaps Liu Pi, King of Wu, from simply trying to take over the throne itself?

The only way you could get a prolonged period of division is if the seven states manage to end the commandery system and turn the rest of the Han Empire into subordinate kingdoms, leaving the Han Emperors only with control of the Chang'an area. But that would require the rebel leaders to decide who to enfeoff, which would probably provoke dissent amongst themselves, which would give the loyal Han forces a chance to regroup and win. It would also require the rebel leaders to give up their own chances of being Emperor in order to stay merely feudal leaders.

If you want to create another Warring States situation, you'd need something extremely provocative, one with a point of divergence before the Rebellion of the Seven States starts, not afterwards. For example, if Liu Bang or one of his sons announces the abolition of all kingdoms, period. That might lead to enough unrest to keep China divided.
 
What if Rebels collaborated with Xiongnu? Can Rebels win Han force... Will this lead to fragmentation of Han Dynasty? Lets say Xiognu controlling Changan.
 
What if Rebels collaborated with Xiongnu? Can Rebels win Han force... Will this lead to fragmentation of Han Dynasty? Lets say Xiognu controlling Changan.

That would certainly help. The first issue would be getting the Xiongnu to help, since they did not historically. Perhaps they doubted that the rebel leader, Liu Pi, was capable enough. Xiongnu help would certainly help Liu Pi's Wu state maintain autonomy, but it still has problems. There were many princes with claims to the Han throne, so the loyal ones will still seek unification. Also, I suspect that Liu Pi wanted the imperial throne itself. In that case he would surely turn against his allies.

I don't know about the Xiongnu logistics and motivations during this time, so if I have time to look at it, I could tell you if this makes Han breakup more or less likely.
 
If you want to create another Warring States situation, you'd need something extremely provocative, one with a point of divergence before the Rebellion of the Seven States starts, not afterwards. For example, if Liu Bang or one of his sons announces the abolition of all kingdoms, period. That might lead to enough unrest to keep China divided.

I also agree with this. This should be one of the easiest way.

If things keep going worse and without any clear winners, it is also very possible that Xiong Nu and other non-Han tribes found their own states and join the conflict.
 
I also agree with this. This should be one of the easiest way.

If things keep going worse and without any clear winners, it is also very possible that Xiong Nu and other non-Han tribes found their own states and join the conflict.
Well, I think the Xiongnu formed their own state already. It just happened to be a steppe empire instead of a settled one.

I don't think the Xiongnu would leave their homeland unless China seemed really weak. But to weaken China you might need the Xiongnu to leave their homeland. The Xiongnu have a strong leader during Liu Bang's time in the form of Maodun Chanyu, but by the time of the Rebellion of the Seven States it is (I had to look this up) his grandson Gunchen Chanyu, who certainly doesn't seem to match up to his illustrious grandfather.
 
Does that mean that will be no "Han" people as an identity, since the long stability of the Han wouldn't of happened.
 
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