WI: Rebellion of Molon successful?

Dorozhand

Banned
I've been intrigued just now by the rebellion of Molon in the Seleucid Empire in 220 BCE. He seemed to be a man of some talent and worth, who knew how to play politics with the satrapies (as evidenced by his persuasion of Ctesiphon and Media to join his revolt) and seemed to possess competency in raising and directing an army (as evidenced by his early prudence in the campaign against Xenoetas).

According to Polybius he was, alas, brought down by ten men defecting to the camp of Antiochus and ruining his plan to stage an attack at night against the king's army. He then returned to his camp and made a final blunder in entering suddenly and convincing the soldiers his was the advancing army of Antiochus. Many men fled immediately and his attempts to array his forces in a defensive posture when Antiochus thence grabbed the initiative and attacked were significantly hampered.

I think, for what it's worth, that had his plan for a night attack materialized for want of ten deserters, those men of his left wing who in the day had turned on him upon seeing the vast forces of Antiochus, and after the previous day's nerve-wracking of a false alarm surprise attack, might not have done so had they been the ones on the initiative and Antiochus the one being surprised. Perhaps they would have fought more bravely and Molon might have conquered.

From there Molon's way to the heart of Persia is clear and the old order of the Seleucid state in disarray...
 

Dorozhand

Banned
Any thoughts? I wonder if a Molonid dynasty might stand against the Parthians better than the latter Seleucids what with their endemic civil wars, which they kept fighting right up until there was no empire left to fight over. I wonder if Molon might have laid the groundwork for a more united state.
 
Was he attempting to secede from the Empire like in Bactria and Parthia or rebelling so he could take over the entire thing? If the former, I suppose a hypothetical Molonid dynasty would do more to keep the Arsacids at bay and focus on the east instead of being everywhere at once.
 
I'm not sure how this helps though. The Seleucid problem was it faced a two front war, with the Arascids and Romans both going after its territories. How does Molonid stop this?
 

Dorozhand

Banned
Was he attempting to secede from the Empire like in Bactria and Parthia or rebelling so he could take over the entire thing? If the former, I suppose a hypothetical Molonid dynasty would do more to keep the Arsacids at bay and focus on the east instead of being everywhere at once.

His base of power was in Media and Mesopotamia. Those are the satrapies that first supported him and from whose populace he raised a not-insignificant army for his challenge to Antigonus. Though Polybius is silent on it, it seems plain that he would have made for Persia and the east. He was a man of pride and ambition and not little talent, and with the king dead and his army scattered there would have been the pivotal opportunity to go on the offensive, gather more support among the satrapies, and raise more forces before the Seleucids could regroup.
 
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