WI Reagan was assassinated in 1981

What if Ronald Reagan was assassinated on March 30, 1981, by John Hinckley Jr in this attempt? How would the 80s go differently with George H W Bush as President instead of Reagan? Would the Reagan Revolution still occur or would Bush govern as a more moderate figure than Reagan? How would US politics and the Republican Party be altered? What would Reagan's legacy be like TTL? How would the 80s go differently? What if?
 
What if Ronald Reagan was assassinated on March 30, 1981, by John Hinckley Jr in this attempt? How would the 80s go differently with George H W Bush as President instead of Reagan? Would the Reagan Revolution still occur or would Bush govern as a more moderate figure than Reagan? How would US politics and the Republican Party be altered? What would Reagan's legacy be like TTL? How would the 80s go differently? What if?

Bush still pushes a tax cut as a tribute to Reagan and to keep the party unified. He also picks a conservative to be his VP (Paul Laxalt and Jack Kemp are the first to come to mind). The early 80s recession still happens as OTL, so the Democrats make gains in congress as they did OTL, and with Volcker still running the fed, the economy recovers and inflation falls as OTL. With less defense spending, and especially no SDI, the deficits and debt are smaller. Bush is able to engage the Soviets sooner as 1983 wont be dangerous without SDI or the Evil empire speech , so the Cold War may end earlier, or at the very least significant arms reductions come earlier. Bush beats whoever the Democrats put against him in 1984. The economy continues to recover as OTL, but with Bush not being Reagan, and Iran Contra happening as OTL, the Democrats narrowly win the White House in 1988.
 
Bush still pushes a tax cut as a tribute to Reagan and to keep the party unified. He also picks a conservative to be his VP (Paul Laxalt and Jack Kemp are the first to come to mind). The early 80s recession still happens as OTL, so the Democrats make gains in congress as they did OTL, and with Volcker still running the fed, the economy recovers and inflation falls as OTL. With less defense spending, and especially no SDI, the deficits and debt are smaller. Bush is able to engage the Soviets sooner as 1983 wont be dangerous without SDI or the Evil empire speech , so the Cold War may end earlier, or at the very least significant arms reductions come earlier. Bush beats whoever the Democrats put against him in 1984. The economy continues to recover as OTL, but with Bush not being Reagan, and Iran Contra happening as OTL, the Democrats narrowly win the White House in 1988.

Would the tax cut be the same size as OTL and would more of it be reversed or not? So the first four years of this scenario would be like your Ford TL. How would the 1988 election go differently? Would the Republican Party be more moderate and less conservative without Reagan's presidency? The end of the Cold War would go differently.
 
The irony is that Bush may be more conservative--at least during his first term--than Reagan, because unlike Reagan he has to worry about conservatives claiming he had "betrayed" Reaganism and possibly challenging him in the 1984 primaries. For example, I am not sure that TEFRA (which somewhat offset the Kemp-Roth tax cuts) would have passed under Bush. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Equity_and_Fiscal_Responsibility_Act_of_1982

Would this not passing mean the Democrats make even bigger gains in 1982, possibly retaking the Senate? I also doubt Bush would push for more defense spending that Reagan OTL, so worst case scenario the debt/deficits are the same as OTL, as Bush will have a smaller defense build up, but no tax increases in his first term.
 
Would the tax cut be the same size as OTL and would more of it be reversed or not? So the first four years of this scenario would be like your Ford TL. How would the 1988 election go differently? Would the Republican Party be more moderate and less conservative without Reagan's presidency? The end of the Cold War would go differently.

I would think so, or they could very well be bigger. In my Ford TL they were smaller as a more moderate Ford was elected President and a Conservative VP getting assassinated (although the Kemp cuts written by Kemp in my TL were smaller, to get Ford on board).

With a Conservative like Reagan getting elected President and getting killed, a moderate like Bush is going to have to please conservatives in one form or another.

1988 goes differently because Bush lacks the charisma and charm of Reagan. If a scandal like Iran Contra happens in Bush's second term TTL, he isn't going to be able to shed blame the way Reagan was able to, so the Democrats will use that to their advantage and win a close one in 88. It's very rare that the White House doesn't switch parties after 8 years, Bush may not be able to create a situation where it stays republican another 4 years. The GOP after 8 years of GHW Bush, IMHO, will be more moderate socially, but more or less the same economically (I lean toward them being a tiny bit more moderate, but still to the right of Nixon and Ford). The end of the Cold War I think at the very least ends as OTL, but as I said Bush could end it earlier. He may just get an arms reductions agreement, either way I don't see it going hot or being prolonged with Bush in the 1980s.
 
Would this not passing mean the Democrats make even bigger gains in 1982, possibly retaking the Senate? I also doubt Bush would push for more defense spending that Reagan OTL, so worst case scenario the debt/deficits are the same as OTL, as Bush will have a smaller defense build up, but no tax increases in his first term.

Why would no TEFRA give the Democrats the Senate in 1982? In fact passing TEFRA is more likely to do so, angering conservatives and Bush would be less popular than Reagan, so the 1982 midterms could be worse.
 
Why would no TEFRA give the Democrats the Senate in 1982? In fact passing TEFRA is more likely to do so, angering conservatives and Bush would be less popular than Reagan, so the 1982 midterms could be worse.

Conservatives would be happy with Bush, but Democrats could easily make the argument that the President is further hurting the economy and blowing a hole in the budget by not letting it pass. With unemployment at almost 11% in 1982, the Democrats could use the failure of the passage of TEFRA to their advantage.
 
Bush is more vulnerable to be damaged by Iran-Contra, he lacks Reagan's popularity and Reagan's alibi. Could Bush get impeached TTL? Though would Iran-Contra still happen or would it be butterflied away?

In 1988 maybe Hart wins, though butterflies might still take him down. Without Hart the 1988 Democratic contest was so open any of the Seven Dwarves have a good chance especially with butterflies stretching back to 1981. I think Bush would pick Kemp and Kemp would be the 1988 nominee. TTL the GOP would be more moderate on both social and economic issues, though still be quite conservative and have drifted right significantly from the 50s and 60s. The end of the Cold War would be different, and Bush would be less hawkish than Reagan there.
 
Top