Bush still pushes a tax cut as a tribute to Reagan and to keep the party unified. He also picks a conservative to be his VP (Paul Laxalt and Jack Kemp are the first to come to mind). The early 80s recession still happens as OTL, so the Democrats make gains in congress as they did OTL, and with Volcker still running the fed, the economy recovers and inflation falls as OTL. With less defense spending, and especially no SDI, the deficits and debt are smaller. Bush is able to engage the Soviets sooner as 1983 wont be dangerous without SDI or the Evil empire speech , so the Cold War may end earlier, or at the very least significant arms reductions come earlier. Bush beats whoever the Democrats put against him in 1984. The economy continues to recover as OTL, but with Bush not being Reagan, and Iran Contra happening as OTL, the Democrats narrowly win the White House in 1988.