I think he pretty easily wins reelection in 88. IIRC, Reagan and Bush pretty much agreed on foreign policy and domestic issues. So I don't see big policy changes over OTL. Not sure how Bush would handle the Iran-Contra Affair though. To me, I think the big changes are in 1992. With no incumbent running (and likely no broken promises about taxes), the GOP could have a real shot at winning. I was 8 in 92, so I don't even know if Clinton would still run or not.