Inspired by the Carter Assassination threat, I ask all of you what would have happened if Ronald Wilson Reagan had died of some reason or another around say... a month or two before the election; what would have happened?
George H.W. Bush would be elected President 8 years earlier and unlike in OTL, he would serve 2 terms, although the 1980 and '84 elections would be much closer ITTL. Bush's economic policies wouldn't be significantly different from Reagan's, although he'd be a little more responsible with the Budget than Reagan was. You'd still have a tax cut in '81, but probably not as big as Reagan's and you'd also have a defense build up, although again it wouldn't be as big as Reagans, so the deficits will be a little smaller and Bush may not have to raise taxes 11 times like Reagan did to try and get the deficit under control. As for foreign policy, I don't think Bush would go for another arms race with the Soviets, so he may reach out to them sooner than Reagan did. The Cold war may end sooner or latter than it did IOTL, but no latter than the 1990s.
As for the '88 election, it's a tossup in this scenario. Bush will benefit from the Volker recovery (assuming Bush keeps him on as fed chairman) like Reagan did, so the GOP has a good shot at keeping it for a 3rd term, but Bush isn't the charismatic Reagan either, so the Democrats are going to have a very good chance at winning to. Either way, I have a feeling whoever wins in '88, loses in '92 due to the economy.
For the hell of it, I'll make an alternate Presidents list as a result of a Bush win in 1980:
40. George Bush (Republican TX): 1981-1989
41. Bob Dole (Republican KS): 1989-1993
42. Dick Gephardt (Democrat MO) 1993-2001
43. Al Gore (Democrat TN): 2001-2005
44. Jeb Bush (Republican FL): 2005-2009
45. Howard Dean (Democrat VT): 2009-2017