WI: Reagan didn't speak to the heart?

During 1980, it was a close race just a week before the election, with Carter ahead by about a point or 2. The turning point was when during the debate, Reagan asked if the public was better off today that 4 years ago, which resulted in a landslide win. If Reagan hadn't thought of asking that question, what would the outcome have been?
 
His closing speech in the debate did help him win a landslide, but Reagan has already overwhelmingly won the debate. A slightly smaller victory, but still by comfortable margins. You have to butterfly away the whole debate to sustain Carter's lead.
 
One interesting butterfly is that Carter could win most of the South, which in real life he only lost by extremely small margins in 1980.
 
During 1980, it was a close race just a week before the election, with Carter ahead by about a point or 2. The turning point was when during the debate, Reagan asked if the public was better off today that 4 years ago, which resulted in a landslide win. If Reagan hadn't thought of asking that question, what would the outcome have been?

Sending only that one moment away by itself on the wings of a butterfly probably wouldn't, unless it's replaced w/a gaffe or something that falls flat, change the overall outcome of the election (a Reagan victory). It's absence however, means that the Reagan campaign still needs a "deal closing" moment in order to secure a victory at the polls.
 
Well, had Carter used Reagan's anti-Medicare record (the literal record) against him, it would likely have defused that "There you go again" remark and thus turned a major Reagan advantage against him.
It should be noted that many mental patients listened to Reagan's speeches and found them either funny or totally unconvincing.
 
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