WI: Reagan and Bush Both Die on March 30th,1981

I know the chances of it happening are slim, even a bit ASB, but let us say that on March 30th,1981, John Hinckley's assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan succeeds, and later that day before he can take to oath of office, George H.W. Bush dies in a car crash.

Now, to my knowledge, this would make Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill President, who was a Democrat and critic of President Reagan.

How would people in America and elsewhere around the world react to the death's of both the President and Vice-President on the same day?

What would a Tip O'Neill Presidency look like? Who would he pcik to serve as his Vice-President? Would O'Neill run for a term of his own in '84? Granted he would have been in his 70's by then, but he was only one year younger than Reagan was, so age might no have been a problem.

What impact would this have on American politics, as well as future Presidents?
 
O'neill? I thought Haig was in charge here? besides, Bush getting in a car accident really would be ASB.
 

maverick

Banned
O'Neill could pick a Republican Vice-President and go for a National Unity Government or something. Definitively no second term, as that could be seen as him exploiting a tragedy for his own gain. Same reason Carl Albert allegedly refused to impeach Nixon or make a move before Ford was confirmed as VicePresident, which could have made Albert President in 1974.
 
Tip would have been dealing with a pair of national tragedies, which would have given him some political cover. But he would also have a Republican Cabinet and White House which could theoretically sabotage him, not to mention a Republican Senate, which wouldn't be likely to help him. O'Neill would be under pressure from both sides to nominate a Vice President from their party. Republicans would want a guy that could win in '84, as would Democrats.

Aside from that, not entirely sure.
 
Nope. The House Speaker is third in the line of succession, and the House Speaker in 1981 was Tip O'Neill.

:rolleyes: its an old and historically bad joke, the media likes to make hay out of nothing, when some reporter asked in the after math of the shooting asked who was in control Of the White House because the President was down and the Vice President was out of town Secretary of State Alexander Haig stated that till the Vice President got there he, as the highest ranked member of the cabinet would be in control of the running of the White House, our sound bit media saw a story(thats what they all making some one look bad) and made it look like Haig was stating he was acting President or some such thing
 
It should be noted that a member of the Bush family (Son Neil Bush) was planning to have dinner with Scott Hinkley (John's brother) the night of the assassination attempt. (It should also be noted that it's extremely unlikely that either of them knew anything beforehand.)

not to mention a Republican Senate, which wouldn't be likely to help him.

For more reasons than one... Tip was alleged to have told a Democratic Congressman that the Republicans weren't the enemy... the Senate was...
 
Tip would have been dealing with a pair of national tragedies, which would have given him some political cover. But he would also have a Republican Cabinet and White House which could theoretically sabotage him, not to mention a Republican Senate, which wouldn't be likely to help him. O'Neill would be under pressure from both sides to nominate a Vice President from their party. Republicans would want a guy that could win in '84, as would Democrats.

Aside from that, not entirely sure.

I'm pretty sure that he'd change the cabinet members, at the very least the ones he thinks would play backstab politics so I doubt the Cabinet would be much of a problem as for being under pressure to nominate a republican as Vice, well tbh that's absurd, the President nominates who he wants and who he trusts, what the republicans want is unimportant.

His only real problem would be the Senate.
 
Cabinet members require Senate confirmation, but as long as O'Neil tries to choose moderates and/or nonpoliticals (i.e.: "experts in the field") that should probably not be an issue.

There are only 53 Republicans in the 97th Senate, which means that it might be possible for him to push more "Democratic" legislation, but it also increases the prospect of gridlock - the House is with him and the Senate doesn't have a supermajority.

Most interestingly, the PATCO strike is only a little over 4 months away, assuming it isn't butterflied away by the POD, and I find it highly probable that O'Neil responds in a vastly different way to it than Reagan did. A different response to that might also affect the MLB lockout, which OTL ended August 9 only a few days after Reagan's response to PATCO. Regardless, you probably won't see as much deregulation during an O'Neil administration.

If he doesn't choose to run in '84, though, then who would the most probable candidates? Could this TL end up with a President Mondale?
 
This type of thing always seems to happen to me. Anyways, here's a pretty good response:
Tip O'Neill would want to strangle the DLC Democrats in their cradle- he was an outspoken opponent of Carter's DLC domestic policies. He was also a old wheelhorse for whom domestic politics, as TNF will attest (;)) was "New Deal or No Deal". Democrats will continue their civil war, but O'Neill is not at all bipartisan- an outspoken New Dealer- to see that the 1980 results clearly indicated that the electorate wanted a Republican President. Foreign policy wise- continues detente, no SDI, no MX, no Contra aid.
 
O Neil would be in a difficult situation. He would want a new cabinent and a Democratic Vice President. His status accidental president would make many Republicans see him as illigitmate. Things would be really tense after he vetoed the tax and budget cuts.
 
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Domestically, as I said, O'Neill is an out-and-out New Dealer. Perhaps Gary Hart mounts a primary challenge in 1984? If not the GOP will easily defeat O'Neill in 1984, probably with a Baker-Kemp ticket.
 
I swore I'd stay out of this thread, but reading the comments about Tip'O'neil I can't ignore it.

Tip was a real bastard, and simply wouldn't do have the things being attributed to him. More to the point, Reagan, much as I may have hated the man, had Charisma.

"LOADS" of Charisma. Part of the reason why Reagan became the Saint and Holy man to the Republican party was largely because he was so damned likable and folksy. Look at "Reagan Democrats" who started to follow him despite being opposed to 90% of their issues.

With Reagan gone, there is simply No one NO one on the right or the left, who could capture America's attention at the time.

With Bush Senior gone too, the chaos that will fall out is going to seriously screw over the political landscape, and who knows what the fallout would eventually become.

The only prediction I could make is that If Dukakis runs in 1988, he will most likely win since the GOP didn't really have anyone other then Bush Senior at the time. Of course who knows what will happen between 1981 and then.
 
Domestically, as I said, O'Neill is an out-and-out New Dealer. Perhaps Gary Hart mounts a primary challenge in 1984? If not the GOP will easily defeat O'Neill in 1984, probably with a Baker-Kemp ticket.

In 1984, President O Neil is running in a time of peace and prosperity. I see him relelected and no serious primary challengers.
 
This POD could work if George H.W. Bush died in a plane crash while returning to Washington from Texas. Mechanical failure or wind shear or an air traffic control mistake. Wouldn't that set the conspiracy theories going?

I believe O'Neill would have a difficult time with the Republicans and conservative Democrats in the Senate. The Republicans would want him to adhere to a generally Reagan-line policy, while O'Neill's inclinations would be in a different, more liberal direction, which would be counter to the philosophies of both groups. The Republican controlled Senate would also hold sway over his cabinet picks and have a say on his vice presidential nominee.

A lot would depend on how willing he was to work with them, and what kind of relationships he could forge. One of Jimmy Carter's major failings as President was that he didn't forge good relationships with senior members of Congress. O'Neill would understand that this is important.

O'Neill would also have an opportunity to pick a Supreme Court Justice in 1981, which no Democratic President had done since 1968. O'Connor had a significant impact on the Court, so whoever her replacement might be historically important as well.
 
I don't think Potter Stwert would retire with a Democrat in the White House. He did die in 1983,so O Neil would have gotten to make a Supreme Court pick. I think he would have chosen Shirley Hoffstedder. She was an apeals vourt judge, Johnson appointee, who resigned in 1979 to accept Jimmy Carter's offer to become the first Secretary of Education
 
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