WI: Reagan (1981-1989), Bush (1989-1997), Kemp (1997-?)

Deleted member 180541

The first big change in this scenario is that instead of picking Quayle as his running mate, Bush picks Jack Kemp instead. He was one of the finalists for the VP pick along with Bob and Elizabeth Dole, and it will bolster his credentials when he runs in 1996. It also gives Bush more credibility amongst conservative voters and congressmen. This could also lead to Bush winning New York in '88, but it doesn't really effect the scenario one way or another. Lets also make Bush's first term go more smoothly, with stuff like puking on the Japanese prime minister not occurring.

We're also going to have both George and Jeb Bush become Governors of Texas and Florida in 1998. George W. Bush has said in his memoirs that he wouldn't of run if his father won re-election, and we will assume Jeb does the same. We will also have Richards loose the election in 1990 to remove her from the equation in 1996, and Clayton Williams will step down after two terms in time for George W. Bush.

Bush winning re-election in 1996 is easy enough, and has been done to death. Let's say Perot doesn't run and there are multiple accusations of sexual harassment and rape made against Clinton during the campaigns. Lets also have Bush win over 300 EVs to further destroy Democrat morale.

Bush has a successful second term and finishes with high approval ratings. Jack Kemp is quite a popular and charismatic figure and picks Christie Whitman, the governor of New Jersey, as his running mate. This in my opinion is the strongest conceivable ticket. Now, it's time to sabotage the Democrats.

I believe Mario Cuomo would be the nominee in 1996, and he definitely would of won. So, we are going to have him loose the 1982 gubernatorial election, which he won 50.9% to 47.5% OTL.

As aforementioned, there is no Ann Richards in this timeline. And Gore was on the loosing ticket in 1992 so he's not getting the nod either. Lets say Bill Bradley looses the 1990 senate election (which was quite close OTL) to Christie Whitman, so I guess she would be a senator instead of governor ITL. You have Dick Gephardt, lets say he's Senate Majority Leader IITL and Tom Foley still looses. There's also Paul Wellstone, let's have him loose the 1990 United Senate election, which he won 50.5% to 47.9% OTL. John Kerry has potential, lets say he looses the democratic primary in 1984 to James Shannon, and lets say Ray Shamie closes the 10 point gap against him in 1982, or James Shannon bungles some subsequent election. There's Jay Rockefeller, lets have him loose the 1984 senate election which he won 51.8 to 47.7% OTL. Who's left... Joe Biden would be the nominee I guess.

Lets have Joe Biden die in 1988. He had to have brain surgery OTL which kept him away from the senate for several months.

Okay then, there's really nobody left. With a booming economy and a popular candidate I think the GOP could win the white house in 1996. What comes next?
The Democrats have an advantage in 1996. All you need is [Generic Democrat]. There will have been a successful Democratic year in 1994 to give you some candidates at minimum. Also Kemp isn't a great candidate IMO. He didn't perform well in the 1996 debates for instance. Even assuming a good Bush term I'd still give the advantage to the Democrats just out of party fatigue, they'd need a really abysmal campaign to let the GOP in.