While looking from a broad macro-historical perspective the conquests were quick and inevitable after the devastation of the war of 602-628 and the various internal crises both the Byzantines and Sassanids had to deal with afterward, Umar(RA), after defeating the Byzantines and Sassanids at Yarmouk and Al-Qadissiyah respectively due to their failure to coordinate, wanted to stop at Mesopotamia and not press further into Iran, as it looked to be the dividing line between the Muslims and Sassanids and is reported saying:
and:
"I wish there was a mountain of fire between us and the Iranians, so that neither they could get to us, nor we to them." |
The Sassanids kept raiding Mesopotamia, resulting in political instability there, as a result the Rashidun invaded Ahvaz in 638, where the Sassanid commander Hormuzan agreed to accept Rashidun suzerainity over the area and to rule as their vassal. Hormuzan broke the agreement three times, each time being pardoned, until the third time when he was captured and sent to Medina, where he apparently accepted Islam. Yazdegerd III then raised a large army, which was defeated at the battle of Nahavand. Umar changed his strategy and decided to engage in an all-out conquest of the Sassanid empire, invading Iran proper, which would continue to provide resistance until Yazdegerd III was killed by a miller in Merv, at which point the Sassanid royal clan fled into lands controlled by the Tang. So what if the dividing line at the Zagros had held, and the Sassanids had officially made peace with the Muslims, reasoning that while losing Mesopotamia is a mortal blow, they can retake it at some point in the future, while the situation is highly unfavorable to them at this point, to avoid a complete conquest. Let's also say that the Great Houses don't overthrow the Sassanids and the agreement holds, the Sassanids can get their house in order while the Rashidun are free to concentrate against the Byzantines. In such a scenario, could we see an Arab Anatolia? What would be the effect on both the Byzantines and the Sassanids? The effects on Central Asia and Iran are absolutely enormous, and the early development of Islam is also hugely impacted, this could butterfly away Umar's death, and either butterfly away or heavily alter the details the First Fitna. Is such a scenario at all plausible? Would there be a rematch at some point? Could we see an earlier siege of Constantinople?