WI: Rafael Trujillo attempts to assassinate Muhammad Reza Shah

  • Thread starter Deleted member 67076
  • Start date

Deleted member 67076

Bit of a wacky idea but:

In 1958, Rafael Trujillo the longtime dictator of the Dominican Republic, as part of his anti isolationist policies attempted to forge diplomatic relations with the Iranian State under recently empowered Muhammad Reza Shah.

During this time, he sent one of his most respected diplomats and a close personal friend, a Sephardic Jewish man named Leland Rosenberg to begin diplomatic and conmerical relations. The Shah, distrustful and somewhat antisemetic sends back an agent to negotiate a deal. Said agent is Teymour Bakhtair, an important SAVAK agent with the goal of assessing the situation.

Historically, the agent was of course captured and interrogated by the SIM because El Chivo doesnt let anything get passed him. Now negociations continue but remain limited as the Dominicans were very interested in selling the Iranians sugar in exchange for oil.

So far everything is historical. But what if Trujillo got angry and decided to get revenge? What if he sends back a SIM agent instead and attempts an assaasination attempt on the Shah? And what if that succeded?

How does the US state department (and everywhere from the Soviets to the Saudis) react to the bullwark of American foreign policy in the middle east getting thrown into chaos by a 4th rate power? Particularly given that 1958 was the Iraqi revolution.
 
The U.S. Marines hit the beach in the Dominican Republic. It’d be 1965 nine years early. That would be an enormous violation of The Rules.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
I think Asp nailed the Dominican part.

...but...

You've got a whole new string of political possibilities for Iran. Does the military just ensure a secure regency? Do we have broader openings to political competition and flux.

Perhaps Mohammed Mossadegh would be released from house arrest and permitted to participate in politics again. Ayatollah Khomeini could be motivated to participate politically if a parliamentary government tries to push through reforms he doesn't want. And these two are far from the only games in town.
 
The DR doesn't get nearly enough a fair shake in AH, first of all - Trujillo is an utterly terrifying character, after all. I wonder if this might be the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back for Trujillo, with the US providing aid to kill El Jefe like they almost certainly did a bit later.
 
The DR doesn't get nearly enough a fair shake in AH, first of all - Trujillo is an utterly terrifying character, after all. I wonder if this might be the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back for Trujillo, with the US providing aid to kill El Jefe like they almost certainly did a bit later.
am i an evil person for wanting trujillo to bay of pigs the USA?
#breakthemonroe
 
The DR doesn't get nearly enough a fair shake in AH, first of all - Trujillo is an utterly terrifying character, after all. I wonder if this might be the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back for Trujillo, with the US providing aid to kill El Jefe like they almost certainly did a bit later.

Oh, it absolutely would be. Murdering the head of state of the linchpin of American Middle Eastern policy and one of the world’s most important non-superpowers for no reason would turn you into the equivalent of the Taliban government circa 9/12/01 in DC.

am i an evil person for wanting trujillo to bay of pigs the USA?
#breakthemonroe

Well, considering the Arc Lights and D-Day the Dominican Republic would experience in response and what that would mean for its people...
 

Deleted member 67076

Oh, it absolutely would be. Murdering the head of state of the linchpin of American Middle Eastern policy and one of the world’s most important non-superpowers for no reason would turn you into the equivalent of the Taliban government circa 9/12/01 in DC.

Well, considering the Arc Lights and D-Day the Dominican Republic would experience in response and what that would mean for its people...
The interesting thing is really that this pushes up the 1960s Political transformations basically a decade ahead of schedule.

I don't think any US invasion would be that long lasting, instead it would probably look like Lebanon. Quick internal assassination following a peacekeeping mission of a variety of nations to ensure stability and purge Trujillista forces by and large. Its not like the people would resist a feared dictator being ousted.

The real question is who comes out of the housecleaning? Is it Juan Bosch who was still in exile in Puerto Rico? Political mastermind Balaguer (still the VP at the time and now looking very much like a target; none of that hiding behind the scenes stuff now)? Pro Business Liberal Viriato Fiallo?
 
Balaguer is almost certainly enough of an opportunist to take on the role of an anti-communist post-Trujillista, although his many sins might well be exposed.

Bosch - in my opinion, one of the few bright spots in the modern history of the DR - was sadly too much of a leftist to really be countenanced by the US.
 

Deleted member 67076

am i an evil person for wanting trujillo to bay of pigs the USA?
#breakthemonroe
Realistically what I think would hapoen is clandestine assassination attempt at first. Same thing that happened after Trujillo tried to assassinate Romulo Betancourt alongside sanctions.

But these wouldnt work at first (given believe it or not Trujillo had men in the CIA feeding him information, its why it took so long for people to realize what was going on in the DR) and so eventually shock amd awe would be tried taking the form of an intervention.

I don't think the Dominican Army would offer much resistance, they werent so much loyal as they were terrified of Trujillo, and the population would love the chance to end the long rule.
 

Deleted member 67076

Balaguer is almost certainly enough of an opportunist to take on the role of an anti-communist post-Trujillista, although his many sins might well be exposed.

Bosch - in my opinion, one of the few bright spots in the modern history of the DR - was sadly too much of a leftist to really be countenanced by the US.
The thing with Balaguer here is that he is the Vice President at this time, and so its right in the crosshair of the inner circle. So I don't doubt the guys ability to try to stay in the background, but its kind of hard when the whole world is looking at the country and the removal of the regime would coincide with all the dirty laundry being poured out.

Bosch here is probably in a slightly better position. The coup against him started off internally- he moved way too quickly in reforms that upset the business elite, the church, and the army. But here at least, the latter would be under a very tight leash (and probably purged to hell and back during the US occupation of anyone with remote ties to Trujillo, in effect decapitating it) and all these changes would be occurring while he was in exile. Hence there is the chance to present himself as a better reformer after the inevitable pushback against US occupation.

Granted I also think there might be a pushback against using strongmen for clients in US foreign policy after this entire debacle just ruined the Mideast. Hopefully.
 
But what if Trujillo got angry and decided to get revenge?

Revenge for what? Sending a covert agent to look over the situation in the DR? What harm is there to Trujillo? Any at all? He might take offense, but it would be very odd to do so: the Shah's action was well within conventional statecraft. But assassinating a head of state who is not hostile, that's way over the line.

IMO even if El Jefe decided on this - his minions would first try to talk him down. If he insisted, and told off some SIM operative to go to Iran - that operative would beg off if possible in any way. If he couldn't beg off - he might go overseas for a while, then come back and say, "Well, I tried, but he has really good protection." Or not come back at all.

But suppose Trujillo goes barking mad, and selects a SIM team to carry out the assassination, under pain of execution if they fail or refuse. Then, most likely, the head of SIM arranges an accident for Trujillo, possibly with the assistance of the CIA - which will be horrified to learn that Trujillo wants to kill an important American ally.

Because at this point, trying to carry out Trujillo's order is much more dangerous than going against him. SIM agents don't speak or read Farsi, and SAVAK kept close watch on any foreigners, particularly anyone as odd as visitors from the DR. And success would invite the wrath of the CIA.
 
Yeah, the US finally turned on Trujillo IOTL after he murdered the Mirabal sisters and tried to make it look like an accident (which fooled absolutely no one), similar to how the US turned on Marcos (without the assassination part) after the murder of Ninoy Aquino, the coverup of that, and the blatant electoral fraud used against his widow when she ran against Marcos.

But, here, the Shah has been (whatever else can be said about him) a reliable ally of the United States; yeah, Trujillo is so fucked it's not even funny.

There is an interesting butterfly: the Mirabal sisters survive ITTL, since Trujillo isn't around to order their deaths...
 

Deleted member 67076

Revenge for what? Sending a covert agent to look over the situation in the DR? What harm is there to Trujillo? Any at all? He might take offense, but it would be very odd to do so: the Shah's action was well within conventional statecraft. But assassinating a head of state who is not hostile, that's way over the line.
As I said, its a silly scenario basically to wonder the ramifications of such a crazy move both in Latin America and the Middle East.
 
Biggest possible difference in the Middle East is unification of the Arab Middle East under Nasser’s United Arab Republic, which everyone expected Iraq to join, and thought Jordan and Lebanon and Saudi Arabia would fall into by popular revolt as well. 1958 was the most pivotal year in the Arab world for revolution until 2011, but when the went into Jordan and Lebanon after Iraq, the fervor stopped (to everyone’s surprise.) So that would change the world as much as China going communist did. Speaking of…

Considering one of Mao’s excuses for starting the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1958 was to defend the Iraqi Revolution by distracting Washington, if the Shah dying ignites a revolution or civil war in Iran, he might go even further than OTL. This would make the beginning of the Sino-Soviet split even worse. WWIII is in the cards, though it always is in the Cold War.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Biggest possible difference in the Middle East is unification of the Arab Middle East under Nasser’s United Arab Republic, which everyone expected Iraq to join, and thought Jordan and Lebanon and Saudi Arabia would fall into by popular revolt as well. 1958 was the most pivotal year in the Arab world for revolution until 2011, but when the went into Jordan and Lebanon after Iraq, the fervor stopped (to everyone’s surprise.) So that would change the world as much as China going communist did. Speaking of…

Considering one of Mao’s excuses for starting the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1958 was to defend the Iraqi Revolution by distracting Washington, if the Shah dying ignites a revolution or civil war in Iran, he might go even further than OTL. This would make the beginning of the Sino-Soviet split even worse. WWIII is in the cards, though it always is in the Cold War.

Interesting - what is the potential of the Iranian Communists at this time. Were the Mujhadeen e khalq a thing yet? Was there a Persian version of Nasserism, militant and non-aligned?
 

Anchises

Banned
Bit of a wacky idea but:

In 1958, Rafael Trujillo the longtime dictator of the Dominican Republic, as part of his anti isolationist policies attempted to forge diplomatic relations with the Iranian State under recently empowered Muhammad Reza Shah.

During this time, he sent one of his most respected diplomats and a close personal friend, a Sephardic Jewish man named Leland Rosenberg to begin diplomatic and conmerical relations. The Shah, distrustful and somewhat antisemetic sends back an agent to negotiate a deal. Said agent is Teymour Bakhtair, an important SAVAK agent with the goal of assessing the situation.

Historically, the agent was of course captured and interrogated by the SIM because El Chivo doesnt let anything get passed him. Now negociations continue but remain limited as the Dominicans were very interested in selling the Iranians sugar in exchange for oil.

So far everything is historical. But what if Trujillo got angry and decided to get revenge? What if he sends back a SIM agent instead and attempts an assaasination attempt on the Shah? And what if that succeded?

How does the US state department (and everywhere from the Soviets to the Saudis) react to the bullwark of American foreign policy in the middle east getting thrown into chaos by a 4th rate power? Particularly given that 1958 was the Iraqi revolution.

This is a brilliant POD. Something unexpected and fresh with the potential to completely change the history of the CW.

The butterflies are enormous. From a quagmire in Iran or the DR, to a Soviet occupation of Iran there are a lot of possibilities.

Even a stalwart western Iran is possible because the Shah never has the possibility to fuck up the goodwill of the population as much as IOTL.
 

Deleted member 94680

What does the DR have to gain in assassinating the Shah?

Or is Trujillo enough of a mad dog to go for it anyway?

For me the most likely outcome is a botched attempt on the Shah and “The Jackal” gets to do his thing a few years early.
 

Deleted member 67076

What does the DR have to gain in assassinating the Shah?

Or is Trujillo enough of a mad dog to go for it anyway?

For me the most likely outcome is a botched attempt on the Shah and “The Jackal” gets to do his thing a few years early.
The geostrategic gains are probably hoping any revolt would be in their favor, the Shah didnt really care that much about Latin America outside Mexico.

The reality is well Trujillo in his old age got angry and more vicious. He tried to intervene in Central America and Venezuela after all (including almost killing Presiddnt Betancourt). So I think there's precedent in that. Of course Teymour himself wasnt exactly a nice guy, so I wouldnt doubt his ability to really piss off another strong personality like Trujillo.
 

Deleted member 67076

Biggest possible difference in the Middle East is unification of the Arab Middle East under Nasser’s United Arab Republic, which everyone expected Iraq to join, and thought Jordan and Lebanon and Saudi Arabia would fall into by popular revolt as well. 1958 was the most pivotal year in the Arab world for revolution until 2011, but when the went into Jordan and Lebanon after Iraq, the fervor stopped (to everyone’s surprise.) So that would change the world as much as China going communist did.
Would the Nasserists do anything in response to the news of the Caribbean? I know everyone at the time knew about Cuba and tried to get relations with them, but could this be expanded to more of the Caribbean and Latin America? Certainly Santo Domingo is no on the map, if at least for a moment.
 
Top