So Sweden gives up Ingria, with Narva and Noteborg. This might cause some revanchist thoughts later, but that's a given whenever a country loses.
Of course, Narva was not a completely worthless piece of property: since the time of Ivan the Terrible there were multiple Russian attempts to get it because it was an important outlet through which Russia was trading with the West. Of course, the trade continued when Narva was in the Swedish hands: the existing agreements regulated the custom dues keeping them on a mutually acceptable level. Then, "Russian trade" did not mean that the imports/exports had been carried by the Russian ships because this was not the case even by the end of the reign of Catherine II (see Memoirs of Count de Segur, French ambassador at St-Petersburg). Basically, the Swedes would lose some income but it most probably would be peanuts comparing with the revenues from Riga (and Revel). Ingria was more or less "Russian revanchism" (
However as this is a challenge for a quick Saxon-Danish-Russian Victory does it fit the challenge if Augustus loses?
Good question. How about him not being thoroughly beaten as in OTL?
After all, not every victory results in the territorial acquisitions.
The real damage to Sweden would be if it does lose its northern German territories. The Swedish military was dependent on tolls from Bremen-Verden, Wismar, the Oder, etc, to finance it.
But Riga was the biggest Baltic city and, IIRC, an outlet for the grain exports from Lithuania which should be bringing noticeable revenues.
A little bit of the nitpicking: Saxons - the PLC was at that time neutral and August was acting strictly as Elector of Saxony with the Saxon troops.While assuming a Swedish victory over the Poles
the tolls there won't be affected, Denmark taking the former two (even without Swedish Pomerania) would have actual effects on the Swedish ability to finance the army it had in its empire stage. Keeping Livonia, or even expanding it with Courland, might allow it to keep its breadbasket regions but Sweden was never going to stay relevant through population numbers. Assuming this alt-GNW ends while the WoSS is still ongoing, I could absolutely see Sweden either joining or even leasing out its troops Prussian style once the leaders realize they can't keep their current military going without foreign subsidies or looting someone.
AFAIK, the idea of making a fast peace and selling army to the highest bidder was advocated in OTL by Count Carl Piper. Not that Charles was listening. Later in the war the allies tried to woo Charles: the Duke of Marlborough visited him but they distinctively disliked each other.
Alexmilman, assuming a quick victory for Russia regardless of whether the first campaign for Narva succeeds or not, how will Peter's politics likely change? You've made it a point to say Peter didn't do much to prepare his military between the Azov Campaign and Narva. Would he continue this behavior until the next war comes by where he has to put together a better army, or did he appear to learn and promote military reform during peacetime?
IMHO, if there is a fast victory against Sweden, the things would be allowed to deteriorate until the next occasion. Of course, the appearances would be maintained but the I'd not bet on the further improvements because everybody would be too busy celebrating (as after Azov). In OTL after Poltava and all these victories he still managed to screw up royally against the Ottomans mostly because his preparations for the Prut campaign had been inadequate, army was not prepared to act against a different type of an opponent, was noticeably short of a cavalry, etc. Actually, his military reforms did not prepare Russian army to fight even against the European opponents, except for the Swedes with their "specifics": few decades later fieldmarshal Münnich conducted serious reforms, including creation of a heavy cavalry (cuirassiers). They made Russia victorious against the Ottomans but in the 7YW Russian army was still somewhat archaic in its tactics and had to learn by the experience.
One more problem with Peter's military reforms is that he seemingly tended to pick the worst things available. As later was commented by Potemkin, he thought that "regularity" (aka, western warfare) is based upon the western-style uniforms. As a result, the Russian soldiers had been dressed in the clothes which had nothing to do with a national costume (this lasted all the way to the reign of Alexander III) and as such both inconvenient and ill-suited for the climate (the capes instead of the warm winter overcoats, stockings and boots in a cold and dirt, etc.). Ditto for the tactics: the stress was exclusively upon the firing by salvos and holding the line, which was not working well against the Swedish bayonet charges. Regular cavalry was explicitly forbidden to act other than on a slow trot (again, hold the line) which was an idiocy against the Swedish cavalry attacking on a full gallop sword in hand. Maneuver on a battlefield was almost completely absent (this was carried all the way to the 7YW), the infantry regiments had been weak (initially 1,000 on paper), etc. Even advantage in artillery was not properly used at Poltava.
We can assume St. Petersburg still happens with Ingria under their control, but I don't think the Russian Baltic fleet was much valued for a while. Would the Russian army be able to fight back evenly with the Swedes if the Swedes attacked in a decade, or even knock them out entirely? If the Russian-Swedish conflict ended ~1702, what quality of troops/defenses would be around St. Petersburg around 1712-1715?
Russian fleet, except for the galleys, did not amount for too much even during the GNW and after that it was happily rotting in the Gulf of Finland all the way to the reign of Catherine II when it 1st time ventured out of the Baltic Sea (losing few ships before it got out) and had to do serious repairs in Britain on its way to the Mediterranean. After this, things started improving.
Peter built a considerable number of warships both on Baltics and on the Azov but, as with everything he did, the quality was lousy and time of the service short: while the high quality oak wood was collected and left forgotten somewhere in the Central Russia, the wharves had been using low quality materials and then the ships were left in the low slat waters of Kronstadt.
As for the Swedish attacks, they had been happening in OTL on rather regular basis but, without Charles, these wars usually were ending with minimal results on both sides (until Sweden finally lost Finland): Finland as a theater had certain limitations and the numbers engaged on both sides usually were relatively small. I don't think that the earlier end of the war would change too much except that there always would be a "Livonian front" for both sides to consider. As the OTL events demonstrated, this would be an area of Swedish vulnerability easily accessible to the Russian irregular troops for a massive countryside looting.