WI: Quick Sassanid Victory in 602 War

So, the 602-622 Byzantine-Sassanid War is a crucial and important war. It tired both the Sassanids and the Byzantines tremendously, and the Sassanids were thrust into civil war that ultimately resulted in the Caliphate conquering all of the Sassanid Empire. On the other hand, while the Byzantines did not see civil war, they did get weakened to the point that most of the Byzantine Empire fell to the Caliphate. This war was so incredibly destructive that it allowed both empires to be greatly overshadowed by a people who were formerly a warring mass of tribes.

But, what if the war were shorter? Let's say the Byzantines, for whatever reason, come to peace relatively early? In the ensuing peace agreement, the Sassanids win control over the portions of Mesopotamia that were contested between the two, but nothing more. Simply put, the contested territory shown becomes Sassanid.

SassanidEmpireMap.jpg


Such a war could bring about a rich, strong Sassanid Empire that would surely be able to defeat the Caliphate and restrict it to the Arabian peninsula. In addition, I think it should be noted that a lot of what is Islamic culture came from the Sassanids. The Sassanids were more tolerant than the Caliphate, and were situated at a nice place in terms of trade. Assuming the Sassanids don't fall any time soon (I don't think they would), I think they could achieve a golden age similar to the Islamic one, and achieve similar progress in terms of science and philosophy, albeit under Persian rather than Arab lines.

Is this scenario plausible?
 
Seconded what @Achaemenid Rome said. If the Sassanids gain that land, the border securing Antioch will be very, very dangerous. Byzantium and any state would not accept such a tight border without a natural barrier. A good natural border for the Sassanids that does not involve them needing to take out too much of Byzantium is the Euphrates river. That should be acceptable to in peace terms and would ensure peace for a time if the victory is ensured. What the Sassanids do not need is to get into a war where there is no escape except total victory or total defeat, that will almost always lead to their eventual loss either against the much stronger Byzantines and or defeat against the Arabs and what few discuss, the Gokturks.
 
Both empires had a history of allying with Arab proxies, so I'm wondering if Muhammad's attempt to unify Arabia might not turn into a proxy war between the two, with one backing Muhammad and the other opposing him? If Muhammad attempts to unify the Southern and Eastern parts of Arabia he'll be treading on the Sassanid's toes(they still held territory in Southern and Eastern Arabia during this time, not sure why the map doesn't reflect that?). OTOH he might be canny enough to not intrude on the Sassanid 's turf?
 
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Both empires had a history of allying with Arab proxies, so I'm wondering if Muhammad's attempt to unify Arabia might not turn into a proxy war between the two, with one backing Muhammad and the other opposing him?

I could foresee the Byzantines supporting the forces of Muhammad (SAW) quite frankly, however, I cannot imagine they would continue such support once they realize how detrimental to trade Muhammad's (SAW) state would and could be. Regardless, the favorite in this war in the early stages is obviously the Quryaish and they would be supported almost indefinitely by the Sassanids if anything. In such a case, I would not be surprised if the Quryaish do defeat the Muslims. However, this is assuming the Quryaish ask for help which is almost ASB in all honesty. As well, there is no hard evidence that the Sassanids and Byzantines where aware of the situation in the Hijaz until Muhammad (SAW) had already taken power. This is likely due to the fact that war was bad business and if the Quryaish let others know of their short comings, their trade and pilgrimage to the Kaaba would decline and thus ruin for their city.
 
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I could foresee the Byzantines supporting the forces of Muhammad (SAW) quite frankly, however, I cannot imagine they would continue such support once they realize how detrimental to trade Muhammad's (SAW) state would and could be. Regardless, the favorite in this war in the early stages is obviously the Quryaish and they would be supported almost indefinitely by the Sassanids if anything. In such a case, I would not be surprised if the Quryaish do not defeat the Muslims. However, this is assuming the Quryaish ask for help which is almost ASB in all honesty. As well, their is no hard evidence that the Sassanids and Byzantines where aware of the situation in the Hijaz until Muhammad (SAW) had already taken power. This is likely due to the fact that war was bad business and if the Quryaish let others know of their short comings, their trade and pilgrimage to the Kaaba would decline and thus ruin for their city.
Once Muhammad has taken power, would you both empires to accept this as a fait accompli?
 
Once Muhammad has taken power, would you both empires to accept this as a fait accompli?

No, because Muhammad had yet to conquer the rest of Arabia. However, there may be only some support amongst the Hijazi to remove Muhammad as it was then proven that he was destined to rule the Hijaz. Arabs, as a people then, accepted victory in battle as an omen of meaning, this ideal transcends religion and is an aspect of Arab culture. Justice is proven in battle and destiny is shown in the bloody hands of a victorious people.

So, once Muhammad has won in the Hijaz, the Hijazi subjects will undoubtedly see him and his successors as legitimate and any other as invaders; especially if someone such as Abu Sufyan retakes power with Sassanid help.
 
To be fair that's hardly an attitude unique to the arabs. If you believe in God/fate and that said deity controls and moves the world for a purpose then victory in battle, plagues, famines etc. Are clear signs of divine favor.
 
To be fair that's hardly an attitude unique to the arabs. If you believe in God/fate and that said deity controls and moves the world for a purpose then victory in battle, plagues, famines etc. Are clear signs of divine favor.

Possibly the most interesting manifestation of this is the Chinese attitude towards 'Heaven' (Tian) wherein it's almost like a celestial possession arrow, ie Heaven is on the side of whoever wins, and it was always destined to be thus, until that one loses, in which case heaven was always foretold to favour someone else, etc. It's not unlike all others except how...openly?...cynical it is while at the same time not seeing itself as cynical at all. Don't think I'm explaining this right, long night.
 
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