WI Quick, decisive Iraqi or Iranian victory in the Iran-Iraq War?

As the title says. Is it possible to have a quick end to the Iran-Iraq war with one of the two combattants having scored a decisive victory? If so, what would the world look like with a quick Iraqi victory? Ditto for a world with an early Iranian victory? I've always wondered if either side had come out well. Perhaps no invasion of Kuwait if Iraq wins fast? Or Iran becoming the strongest power in the Middle East if Iraq is knocked out early?

Thoughts? Discuss ;).
 
Perhaps no invasion of Kuwait if Iraq wins fast?

Still pondering the general idea of things, but my quick thoughts is that this is all the more likely if Iraq wins quick. Perhaps a change of timing, but would happen unless the Saudis or Egyptians propped up Kuwait or actually generated forces to actually defend themselves.. A lot depends on if Hussein is content with Iran for a while or if it only makes him even more greedy to control the flow of oil. The US has a variety of options on the table. As does the Israelis.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Still pondering the general idea of things, but my quick thoughts is that this is all the more likely if Iraq wins quick. Perhaps a change of timing, but would happen unless the Saudis or Egyptians propped up Kuwait or actually generated forces to actually defend themselves.. A lot depends on if Hussein is content with Iran for a while or if it only makes him even more greedy to control the flow of oil. The US has a variety of options on the table. As does the Israelis.


Kuwait was attacked because Saddam owed a heck lot of money because the first Gulfwar took ages. A quick Iraqi victory changes that.
 
maybe if the military manages a coup early on during the war due to the regime's mismanagement, Iran would sue for peace.

The little problem with this is most of the people planning a coup in the military had been arrested, which weakened the army enough that it helped convince Saddam to invade...
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
If Iran wins, you could see Saddam getting overthrown by a Tehran-backed Shi'a revolt in Iraq. Also, Shi'a militancy in the Gulf Region would flare up again, as it did during and immediatly after the Iranian Revolution. You may see successful Shi'a Islamist revolutions in Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, etc., or, if they fail, drawn-out guerilla wars.

Turkey, Egypt, Syria, and especially Saudi are going to be really nervous about a strong Shi'a power that is openly hostile to them.

If Shi'a uprisings succeed (probable, about 50-50 in the Gulf) you will see Iran treating them as client states. Things will soon turn sour, though, as Arab-Persian antagonism, xenophobia, and distrust will probably tear apart any ideas of "Islamic Unity."

Most likely this break will occur in the aftermath of Khomeini's death, with Shi'a Arab leaders regarding Khamenei as a "revisionist" (think a Shi'a Islamist version of the Sino-Soviet split)

The result? Perhaps a resurgance of Arab nationalism against Islamism (which could be cast as a form of Persian imperialism); big energy concerns for both East and West over de-facto Iranian control over the Persian Gulf; Islamist states in the 1990's that may look to the West for support against an Iran that seeks to reassert dominance.

 
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