WI: Queen Margot Dies in 1582?

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-margaret-of-valois-dies-in-1582.373325/

Margot went to Metz in 1582 where she fell ill (or she went to Metz because she fell ill, I'm not sure), say that she gets so bad she dies. This of course leaves Henri IV not only without a wife, but also without one of his strongest supports (they might not have liked each other, but they were allies of convenience. IIRC there's the story that when she gave her terms for divorce to Henri, he agreed to them straight away, and she mused "she should've asked for more").

So, the king of Navarre would need to remarry. Now, Caterina de Medici was apparently proposing her granddaughter (actually, she offered this OTL even with Margot still alive, since she had long since lost control of her daughter, and looked for a more pliable replacement), and I think Henri IV would consider it, but would it be the only option he'd consider? And what would Margot's death mean for the future of France? I know Henri IV didn't claim the throne in right of his wife (but through his Bourbon ancestry), but might his wife not being sister to the last king (Henri III) affect his own claim at all?

Also, I've seen it said that Henri IV would've been a dead man walking the minute he and Margot had had a son (Caterina would've poisoned/murdered him), so would that still be the case if he remarries during Caterina's lifetime?
 
Henry IV’s claim will not be affected in any way by Marguerite’s death plus Henry was still closely related to the French royal family as his maternal grandmother Marguerite was the sister of Francis I of France (so he and his first wife were second cousins) but only male ancestors in male line counted for the French succession.
Well you can never be sure of anything when Catherine de’ Medici is involved...
That proposed grandaughter would be?
 
but only male ancestors in male line counted for the French succession.

I know this, but ICR if Margot's blood connection to the last Valois played a role in persuading some to throw their weight behind Henri rather than a Lorrainer prince or Spanish infanta.

Either https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christina_of_Lorraine or Antoinette of Lorraine (1568–1610)
Christina was fertile, Antoinette had no children, but problem was with her husband.

Christine would be fun, if only for the butterfly storm it would/could set loose in Tuscany. Wonder who would take her place as grand duchess? Her own marriage plus Henri IV's wedding Maria de Medici made the Habsburgs think that Tuscany was "too French". Although a POD in 1582 could make Francesco I and his Venetian wife, Bianca Cappello live longer (or Francesco's son - Felipe II's godson - Filippo de Medici could survive).

Wonder if Felipe II would consider one of his daughters for future queen consort of France here? Maybe make a deal with Henri? Felipe was pragmatic with regards religion (outside his realm) - see his championing of the is-she-isn't-she Elizabeth of the Catholic Mary, QoS.
 
It would be interesting if Antoinette takes Christine's place in Tuscany match. If the problem in her OTL marriage was with her, then her TTL husband would have a window to remarry/produce heirs, while the Cleves succession crisis may be butterflied away. If it was with her husband, the butterflies will not be that great.
 
Wonder if Felipe II would consider one of his daughters for future queen consort of France here? Maybe make a deal with Henri?
Isabella Clara would resolve the Breton succession question (which was actually disputed when Henri IV was crowned), but at this time she is betrothed to Rudolph the Mad Emperor.
 
I know this, but ICR if Margot's blood connection to the last Valois played a role in persuading some to throw their weight behind Henri rather than a Lorrainer prince or Spanish infanta.


Wonder if Felipe II would consider one of his daughters for future queen consort of France here? Maybe make a deal with Henri? Felipe was pragmatic with regards religion (outside his realm) - see his championing of the is-she-isn't-she Elizabeth of the Catholic Mary, QoS.

As I said Henry IV has already a blood connection to them of his own as his mother was niece of Francis I and cousin of Henry II of France.
Well Mary Stuart was simply too French for Felipe II’s liking so he supported Elizabeth mostly because he feared to give England to the French allied Mary...
In a scenario in which Mary (Tudor) lived longer so Isabel (of France) married Carlos instead of Felipe I think not improbable a successive wedding between Felipe and Marie (Stuart) who was young, beautiful and would add her Scotland (and likely England) to his domains... Felipe’s support to Elizabeth will end if he married her rival and she will be quickly excommunicated and likely dethroned. Plus a wedding between Felipe and Marie likely will have the same kind of contract he had with the other Mary so Netherlands reserved to their heirs and I think we will see at the latest in a couple of generations a Catholic Kingdom of England, Scotland, Ireland and Burgundy (the latest with all the 19 provinces)...
 
I know this, but ICR if Margot's blood connection to the last Valois played a role in persuading some to throw their weight behind Henri rather than a Lorrainer prince or Spanish infanta.

By that time she and Henry were separated and, IIRC, the main argument against infanta was Salic Law, which makes Margo's connection rather self-defeating as an argument. The Guises had been considered a foreign dynasty, which was, again, a disqualifier (Duke of Mayenne objected to the candidacy of his own son).
 
It would be interesting if Antoinette takes Christine's place in Tuscany match. If the problem in her OTL marriage was with her, then her TTL husband would have a window to remarry/produce heirs, while the Cleves succession crisis may be butterflied away. If it was with her husband, the butterflies will not be that great.

I suspect it may have been her husband. Married twice but neither wife has kids seems to either be the worst run of bad luck or maybe you're the problem.

Isabella Clara would resolve the Breton succession question (which was actually disputed when Henri IV was crowned), but at this time she is betrothed to Rudolph the Mad Emperor.

Yeah, she IS, but there's no reason that Felipe II can't offer her to Paris as a way of sort of forcing Rudi's hand, or he can always offer Catalina Miguela for Henri (I think Henri will push for Isabel though).

As I said Henry IV has already a blood connection to them of his own as his mother was niece of Francis I and cousin of Henry II of France.
Well Mary Stuart was simply too French for Felipe II’s liking so he supported Elizabeth mostly because he feared to give England to the French allied Mary...
In a scenario in which Mary (Tudor) lived longer so Isabel (of France) married Carlos instead of Felipe I think not improbable a successive wedding between Felipe and Marie (Stuart) who was young, beautiful and would add her Scotland (and likely England) to his domains... Felipe’s support to Elizabeth will end if he married her rival and she will be quickly excommunicated and likely dethroned. Plus a wedding between Felipe and Marie likely will have the same kind of contract he had with the other Mary so Netherlands reserved to their heirs and I think we will see at the latest in a couple of generations a Catholic Kingdom of England, Scotland, Ireland and Burgundy (the latest with all the 19 provinces)...

A marriage between Felipe II and Mary, QoS, has a very small window of happening AIUI (i.e. were Élisabeth/Claude de Valois to be unavailable), so for the intents and purposes of this scenario (with a PoD in 1582) lets assume Felipe II's marriages go as OTL. (Although the Felipe II-Mary, QoS marriage might happen in the independent Habsburg Portugal thread. And I could see Elizabeth (probably) marrying in that scenario).
 
A marriage between Felipe II and Mary, QoS, has a very small window of happening AIUI (i.e. were Élisabeth/Claude de Valois to be unavailable), so for the intents and purposes of this scenario (with a PoD in 1582) lets assume Felipe II's marriages go as OTL. (Although the Felipe II-Mary, QoS marriage might happen in the independent Habsburg Portugal thread. And I could see Elizabeth (probably) marrying in that scenario).
A match between Felipe II and Marie need a 1558 POD (aka a Mary Tudor live some month longer so Isabel of France marry Carlos instead of Felipe freeing her OTL husband for her former sister-in-law) and is pretty unlikely who Elizabeth will be able to keep the English crown for long in this scenario as she will became queen in 1559 or 1560 and will lose Felipe support in 1560/1561...
 
A match between Felipe II and Marie need a 1558 POD (aka a Mary Tudor live some month longer so Isabel of France marry Carlos instead of Felipe freeing her OTL husband for her former sister-in-law) and is pretty unlikely who Elizabeth will be able to keep the English crown for long in this scenario as she will became queen in 1559 or 1560 and will lose Felipe support in 1560/1561...

1558 is early enough that it could prevent a marriage between Henri of Navarre and Margot, though. So, no dice. We're sticking with a 1582 change.

Can't find exactly WHEN in 1582 Margot's illness occured, but if it's early enough in the year, it could affect the survival of the Infante Diego.
 
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