WI Qing Manchuria?

This seems rather obvious, but the point of this is to have the Qing only in Manchuria.

How can the Ming defeat the Qing invaders? What new dynasty would replace the aged Ming with the Qing out of the picture? How would the two separate states develop?
 
This seems rather obvious, but the point of this is to have the Qing only in Manchuria.

How can the Ming defeat the Qing invaders? What new dynasty would replace the aged Ming with the Qing out of the picture? How would the two separate states develop?


Well, the Ming were just...totally rotting and on the verge of collapsing. It seems highly unlikely, almost ASB, for them to fight off the Manzhou. The Qing rulers of the Manzhou were already rather sinicized even before they invaded and they had the support of many confucian scholars and administrators in China, because they promised to uphold and strengthen traditional Confucian values.

However, if a new, stronger dynasty had come into power before the Qing invasion, then they might have been able to fight them off.
 
Well, the main point of this WI is to find out what alternatives there were to the Qing dynasty and how an independent Qing Manchuria and Imperial China would have developed side by side.
 
In an idea I am exploring for my AAR, there is no Imjin War (Japanese invasion of Korea) and thus the Ming Dynasty is somewhat stronger than in OTL. Also, the Joseon kingdom is not devastated by the war. So when the Manchus attack Korea in the early 17th century, the Koreans defeat them and stop their expansion at that point.

The last possible POD would be that Wu Sangui does open the gates of the Great Wall to allow the Manchus through in 1644, IMO.
 
Hm... if the Manchu tribes didn't unite under the Later Jin Dynasty, and unification was delayed a century or so, would that be enough to allow the unrest in the Ming Dynasty to lead to a new native Chinese dynasty? (I think the Ming are doomed in any case)
 
Having been taking some Chinese History courses I now feel somewhat qualified to answer the question.

The most obvious POD and the one closest to the actual Qing invasion would be during the defection of Chinese General Wu Sangui to the Qing. His defection to the Qing would result in their penetration of the Great Wall and subsequent conquest of China. However from what I've read Wu Sangui's defection was a pretty close run thing.

Now it's 1644 and the Ming Dynasty is in dire straits. A former postal worker Li Zicheng has risen to command a large army of rebels and attacked Beijing (partly due to Manchu influence). To make matters worse the gates of Beijing were opened by prominent eunuchs within the Ming court. Li Zicheng enters the city and all hell breaks loose. The last Ming Emperor meanwhile holes up in the Imperial Palace and eventually hangs himself. Li Zicheng then decides to declare a new dynasty the Shun Dynasty.

Now key to his dynasty's success is the secural of the allegiance of the powerfull Ming armies along the frontier. His illegitmacy is of little issue to these armies as they are by and larger Inner Asian Steppe Mercenaries hired by the Ming with little actual allegiance. The most talented of these generals leading the armies is Wu Sangui, if he joins Li Zicheng then the rest will follow. Fortunately for Li Zicheng he has Sangui's father and favorite concubine hostage.

So Wu Sangui is left with a choice. Either he sides with the rebel/ex-con Li Zicheng who at the very least was ethnic Chinese, has his father and concubine hostage. Or he sides with the barbarian Qing. Evidence suggest he debated joining Li but was dissuaded (some say) by Li sleeping with his favorite concubine (but accounts vary.) At any rate, Wu becomes pathologically obsessed with killing Li Zicheng and allies with the Qing to facilitate his act of revenge.

Now WI Wu Sangui joins Li Zicheng? Well obviously the Great Wall of China isn't opened and the Qing can't come in just yet. The new "Shun" dynasty has got a load of credibility now, especially if the other northern armies follow Wu Sangui's lead of choosing the lesser of two evils.

From there it could go many ways, but for the sake of the scenario let's assume that Li Zicheng now Emperor get's some good advisors. Much of the rot in the former Ming regime is wiped out, especially the Eunuchs. Numerous reforms are adopted and Li Zicheng turns the tables on the Manchus.

Couple this with the Manchu confederation breaking apart (say Dorgon dies in a riding accident or somesuch) and you effectively end the threat of a Qing invasion of China.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Couple this with the Manchu confederation breaking apart (say Dorgon dies in a riding accident or somesuch) and you effectively end the threat of a Qing invasion of China.
I agree with you about Wu Sangui and Li Zicheng, but I think that even in the event of the Ming being replaced by the Shun rather than the Qing, China would remain vulnerable to Manchu encroachment on its northern frontier. The Manchus were a rising power in north-east Asia and, like other partially Sinicized steppe nomads before them, would likely have attempted to expand south whatever else happened. The Shun would have to deal with them one way or another, and it's an open question whether they'd have time to consolidate their power in the home provinces before turning their attention to the North.

There's also an interesting side question: how far beyond the home provinces would Imperial rule extend without the Qing's military expansion in the 18th century?

It's also possible that the Shun would, like the early Ming, seek to assert their legitimacy with an ambitious program of maritime expeditions, making a name for themselves, as it were. This being the mid-17th century, and the trans-Pacific routes to the Americas being well-charted by the Spanish, they may even decide to join the Western powers in making territorial claims in the New World, you never know...
 
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It's also possible that the Shun would, like the early Ming, seek to assert their legitimacy with an ambitious program of maritime expeditions, making a name for themselves, as it were. This being the mid-17th century, and the trans-Pacific routes to the Americas being well-charted by the Spanish, they may even decide to join the Western powers in making territorial claims in the New World, you never know...

I'm no expert on Confucianism, but I remember reading a while back that it discourages colonization for some reason, although I can't remember why. So would it help the Shun to legitimize if they did something that would be considered un-Chinese, or at least deviating from Confucianism?

Also, I think that since Li Zichneng was an ethnic Han, his dynasty would not have the legitimacy issues that the Qing Dynasty did, so would they need to territorially expand at all?
 
Just an idea I've got while was doing some research for my TL: could a surviving Taichang Emperor have reverted the decline of the Ming? I didn't find much information about him, but it seems that he tried to make some important reforms regarding the army.
 

Typo

Banned
I would imagine if anything the Shun or surviving Ming might lay claim to the Philippines (the remnants almost did OTL) rather than the new world.

Or how about an even more fractured China? Southern Ming, Northern Shun, and Qing Manchuria
 
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