Thomas Wilkins
Banned
What if Abd al-Karim Qasim was assassinated by the Baathists in 1959 instead of being executed in 1963?
If this happens before Qasim's crackdown on the Communists in the summer of 1959, it may be they and not the Arab nationalists (whether Nasserite or Ba'athist) who seize power (though whether they keep it may be questioned). See my post at https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/communist-iraq-1959.319476/ on how powerful the Iraqi Communist Party seemed at that time: "in the spring of 1959...they were at the height of their power. They had important sympathizers in the army, they strongly influenced the PRF [People's Resistance Forces], they controlled the trade unions, the peasant union, etc.--and they even had sympathizers holding high posts within the regime. Indeed, even those politburo members who opposed a coup acknowledged that it might be successful for a while..." One reason they didn't attempt to seize power at the time is that they underestimated Qasim's suspicion of them, thought they could work with him and gradually increase their power, etc. If he were assassinated this illusion would vanish and they might feel they had no choice but to make a bid for immediate power.
A communist controlled petrostate is one of the more interesting AH ideas. One thing is that they will be forced to continue trading with the West, because they need the money.If this happens before Qasim's crackdown on the Communists in the summer of 1959, it may be they and not the Arab nationalists (whether Nasserite or Ba'athist) who seize power (though whether they keep it may be questioned). See my post at https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/communist-iraq-1959.319476/ on how powerful the Iraqi Communist Party seemed at that time: "in the spring of 1959...they were at the height of their power. They had important sympathizers in the army, they strongly influenced the PRF [People's Resistance Forces], they controlled the trade unions, the peasant union, etc.--and they even had sympathizers holding high posts within the regime. Indeed, even those politburo members who opposed a coup acknowledged that it might be successful for a while..." One reason they didn't attempt to seize power at the time is that they underestimated Qasim's suspicion of them, thought they could work with him and gradually increase their power, etc. If he were assassinated this illusion would vanish and they might feel they had no choice but to make a bid for immediate power.
In your opinion, how would the USA, the UK, Turkey and Iran deal with a Communist takeover in Iraq? What would they do?
The conflict between Nasserists and Ba'athist has not occurred yet not to mention Nasser still had the support of some the Syrian and Iraqi Ba'athists. so they can united on the basis of anti-communist and pan-ArabismOn the other hand-, it will be hard to unite the forces opposed to a Communist takeover (Nasserists, Ba'athists, )