It'd depend on what he did after, of course. I once tried to write a memorial TL that would've been what I thought would've been the best case for Russia to rescue the country from its totalitarian OTL destination. But I didn't get far.
The idea I came up with I thought was most promising was to have him, after his inevtably soon fall from power, start and recruit a new generation of leadership to a new, conservative political party that, like the American Republicans and the British Tories, would've encompassed broad wings of conservatism, including extreme royalists, and given an healthy Duma opposition to the Communists and sadly outnumbered social democrats. Democracy needs at least two strong parties to work well, and only the Commies were really strong.
I don't know how realistic the idea of him starting a new party is, since he grew up in an unchecked monarchy, but at least, recruiting a new generation of similiarly ept moderate royalists as himself does seem pretty like him, and even that'd be a huge help.
By that time there's no 'Narodnaya Volya" (People's Will). There are SRs who are mainly using terrorism and Bolshevicks who use bank robbery as the part of their financing.Stolypin was a spent political force when he was assassinated, so nothing changes beyond there being slightly less animosity to the narodnik-type terrorists... although without Stolypin they might end up assassinating someone else, bringing us nicely back to square one.
The Social Revolutionaries program was heavily inspired by/similar to the narodniks, The SRs seem to have opted to pursue politics through the Duma rather than terrorism. So it's not entirely unfair to typify an SR who engages in terrorism as a 'narodnik'.By that time there's no 'Narodnaya Volya" (People's Will). There are SRs who are mainly using terrorism...
Assuming he isn't killed, we now have two problems...start and recruit a new generation of leadership to a new, conservative political party...
The SRs ended up being the most popular party at the Constituent Assembly from memory... and are not Communists. Socialistic perhaps, but not Communist. The Bolsheviks and Mensheviks couldn't really secure that big a vote because of their lack of a rural base....only the Commies were really strong.
SR - is the acronym for the Social Revolutionaries.The Social Revolutionaries program was heavily inspired by/similar to the narodniks, The SRs seem to have opted to pursue politics through the Duma rather than terrorism. So it's not entirely unfair to typify an SR who engages in terrorism as a 'narodnik'.
Dmitry Bogrov was an SR as well as the "rat" to the "okhrana". He entered the theatre at that day in his capacity as the secret agent of the "okhrana" but acted typically as the SR. The version of the Stolypin's assasination you mentioned exists but I cannot say for sure it's the likeliest version.The possibility that Bogrov might have in fact been acting on behalf of far right elements (he was apparently okhrana) suggests that no matter what Stolypin does, he could end up dead.
As I said above he had already had a Party he could lead to the new Duma elections. That means that neither Rodzyanko, nor Guchkov might become central persons or have massive support in the Duma in February 1917. That means we might not see Nicholas II's abdication even if the bread revolt starts in St. Petersburg.Assuming he isn't killed, we now have two problems
- In 1911 the Duma voted against an expansion of his programs. So there isn't a great pool of support waiting for him.
- If it isn't complete by 1914, it won't work. The resulting economic and political shakeup that follows will result in the February and October revolutions.
The problem with Stolypin forging a new party or pool of supporters is he will be starting from the ground up. He can't change much in three years that way.
That's why the Bolshies allied with the left-wing SRs to form their first Government after dissipating the Constituent Assembly. Having support from left-SRs they could carry out their second coup d'etat.The SRs ended up being the most popular party at the Constituent Assembly from memory... and are not Communists. Socialistic perhaps, but not Communist. The Bolsheviks and Mensheviks couldn't really secure that big a vote because of their lack of a rural base.