WI: Putin with two terms only?

"A similar problem has plagued Medvedev throughout his presidency. Whenever his limousine approached the Kremlin, the security guards would announce: "The president is about to arrive!" But when it was Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in the limousine, they would say: "Nastoyashtchiy yedet" -- "Now the real one is coming."" http://www.spiegel.de/international...s-betrayal-of-russian-democracy-a-789767.html

Right. And you will anyway have a Putin 2.0 who would be set-up by the Russian deep State and elected in 2012 the same way Putin was set-up in 1999-2000.

Putin is the embodiment of the Russian dominant political line. Medvedev is too distant from this centroid of Russian politics and perceived Russian national interests.
 

Bison

Banned
Medvedev, United Russia, and some of its members as well as most local politicians are disdained by the Russian people as both corrupt and incompetent, unlike Putin, especially after Navalny and his landmark documentary that claimed to have exposed Medvedev's huge dachas and villas. Putin's personality, although I will admit that he has some competent/popular ministers like Lavrov Duma Speaker Voronin and some of his staff. I think it is safe to say, even if you are a fan of Putin, that it his personality alone that keeps the establishment/country together.

I think this is also shown by the fact that we have no clue who could succeed him and how they will do.
 
So, what if V.V. Putin decided that he will not run for third term in 2012?
I would suggest that the only way for Putin to not run for President again would be if he was either medically incapacitated or dead, even the Russian constitution limiting Presidents to a two term maximum would likely be amended whilst he was Prime Minister. If he decides not to run again in 2012 he merely continues to run the government via remote control. Had he died early enough in his second term as Prime Minister it would likely improve his reputation since domestically Medvedev would be left holding the bag during the 2008 recession and 2015-16 downturn, and internationally by avoiding Crimea, Syria, and the US Presidential elections.
 
There are several possibilities. Least realistic is that he acted like more or less genuine democratic leader, did not kill off credible opposition and retired after his term, perhaps as the founder of a political party. To be fair that would probably mean a resurgence of olygarhic-backed political figures, but could pull through to something resembling a modern state as well.
Second is that he does not run for third term but stays behind the throne. Then nothing changes really. Medvedev invaded Georgia after all. There may be a difference in internal Russian political scene, but not for the outdide world I think. Also he may be undermined eventually and forced out. Maybe even in 2014 or something.
Third is he suffered a health problem or an accident and removed from politics. In that case I don't think Medvedev would last more then one term. Putins former clique would try to remain in power, but how successfully depends on their actual competence and ability to cooperate. That would likely butterfly off Ukraine invilvement and Syria as well.
 
There are several possibilities. Least realistic is that he acted like more or less genuine democratic leader, did not kill off credible opposition and retired after his term, perhaps as the founder of a political party. To be fair that would probably mean a resurgence of olygarhic-backed political figures, but could pull through to something resembling a modern state as well.
Second is that he does not run for third term but stays behind the throne. Then nothing changes really. Medvedev invaded Georgia after all. There may be a difference in internal Russian political scene, but not for the outdide world I think. Also he may be undermined eventually and forced out. Maybe even in 2014 or something.
Third is he suffered a health problem or an accident and removed from politics. In that case I don't think Medvedev would last more then one term. Putins former clique would try to remain in power, but how successfully depends on their actual competence and ability to cooperate. That would likely butterfly off Ukraine invilvement and Syria as well.

Modernity of government is not a goal nor a value in itself. What people demand above all from government is efficiency in improving the material situation and the security of the country.

Given the disastrous way Yeltsin and his supporters, who claimed to govern the country in a modern western way, ran Russia, western modern government has become a scarecrow to the wide majority of Russians.

And as far as Ukraine and Syria are concerned, Putin acted in a quite moderate way in comparison to what the Russian public opinion and to the dominant factions in the Russian deep State.

It may be hard to figure out but Putin rather is a moderator who cool things down.

Just consider the way he reacted when a Russian plane was shot down during the last Israeli attack on Syria. First Putin made a declaration deploring an unfortunate accident. Then his defense minister made a tougher statement and Putin decided to give Syria S300 because Putin probably finally fell compelled to do so for domestic political considerations.
 
I was actually thinking more about "more or LESS genuine democratic leader" scenario, where he decides in 2008 to become the PM to "help" Medvedev for a single term.
 
I was actually thinking more about "more or LESS genuine democratic leader" scenario, where he decides in 2008 to become the PM to "help" Medvedev for a single term.
If he stays PM and not going to run for president again, he probably remains the main figure anyway. In that scenario there is still no real opposition and Medvedev probably wins in 2012. There would not be an extension of presidential term from 4 to 6 years, so someone else would be promoted to presidency in 2016. There could really be anyone. I think Shoygu or Sobyanin may be good candidates if Putin manages to hammer them through.
If crackdown on opposition is relaxed, we may even have Navalny as a rival candidate, though I am not sure if he had any support outside Moscow and St.Petersburg. Though his victory would be a Trump-like shock...
 
If he stays PM and not going to run for president again, he probably remains the main figure anyway. In that scenario there is still no real opposition and Medvedev probably wins in 2012. There would not be an extension of presidential term from 4 to 6 years, so someone else would be promoted to presidency in 2016. There could really be anyone. I think Shoygu or Sobyanin may be good candidates if Putin manages to hammer them through.
If crackdown on opposition is relaxed, we may even have Navalny as a rival candidate, though I am not sure if he had any support outside Moscow and St.Petersburg. Though his victory would be a Trump-like shock...


Yes, that interested me. Any other names?
 
Aren't we forgetting someone?

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Yes, that interested me. Any other names?
Ivanov, perhaps? It really depends how well Putin would continue to control the political situation. In 2012 he managed to pacify protesters with his election promises and the level of fraud needed to elect him was much lower anyway then for say Medvedev if he ran (mostly to make the victory look more solid then for victory itself). Without it the situation in Russia may be less stable. There is a possibility that he had to agree with some other candidate.
 
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