General Ripper
Banned
So, what if Putin decided in 2008 to retire from politics and leave his heir ( who could that be? ) to lead the Russia from then on? So, no Prime Ministerial position later and no return as president in 2012?
You would need very different Putin there if he just decide to retire.
Presumably so. But let's take that he decides that what Russia needs at the time is a bit of institutional stability and nothing better than respecting the Constitution and allowing peaceful and democratic transfer of power...
So, what if Putin decided in 2008 to retire from politics and leave his heir ( who could that be? ) to lead the Russia from then on? So, no Prime Ministerial position later and no return as president in 2012?
“Retires”. In all likelihood, he would simply be the power behind the throne in this scenario.
Well the obvious effect would be a different Russian president. Who that would be I don't know.
Where does Ivanov or some Putin-lite figure come up in this alt 2012 if Libya stayed under the Colonel???I know this isn't *quite* what you're asking, but even OTL I don't think Putin returning as president was quite so predetermined. United Russia had enough strength to remove or loosen term limits and let him run again in 2008, but he chose to turn the presidency over to Medvedev and accept the role of PM. In hindsight it's easy to imagine that the plan was always to come back, but Medvedev did have some real power in those years, Putin by many accounts took a more backseat role, and until fairly late it wasn't clear who would run in 2012, Medvedev or Putin.
There's reasonably strong evidence that Putin intended to model his career like Deng Xiaoping's, moving out of the presidency but retaining a role in the state and in United Russia that enabled him to play a strong background role. It appears that the Arab Spring and the Libya intervention in particular played a big role in convincing him to return to the presidency. Medvedev adopting a stronger position and his allowing the UNSC to approve the Libya intervention (by abstaining rather than vetoing), convinced Putin that Medvedev was overly deferential to the West and that the West was growing too aggressive.
Had it not been for the Arab Spring, Putin would I think have remained PM. And I think it's possible his authority would gradually diminish.
It's telling no one has a clue on who would best take his place. Granted, I don't know much on Russian politics, so who would have the msit likely chance of winning?
Maybe he retires for personal reasons or he has a private near-death experience or something.
If I can diverge a bit from the subject, Russia's biggest issue that prevents it from being a liberal democracy is the fact that the former Communist elite, with Yeltsin on top, did not turn towards social-democracy like in the rest of the former Warsaw Pact countries, instead they began to monopolize the liberal, progressive side of the political spectrum and than, under Putin, they began to shift towards conservatism. As such, the establishment could not have been opposed by right-wing means, as in all post-communist countries with communistophobic and, thus, anti-leftist progressive public opinion and so the absence of an establishment social-democratic party prevented a democratic alternation to power.
Now, if Putin retires in 2008, as said, will remain with a high Presidential rating amongst the Russian people. No matter who will be Prime-Minister in his place or succed Medvedev in 2016 Russia could be a little bit better in corruption fighting and relations with the West, but this spurs some questions: What about Ukraine's signing of the Association Agreement with the EU? What about the migrant crisis? What about the far-right rise in Europe and the possible involvement in the US 2016 elections? Would Alexey Navalny be able to run for President? Also, apart from the untouched large oligarchs, Russia would still have problems with Ramzan Kadyrov, the "Caucasian Kim Jong-un".
I certainly wouldn't mind finding out what happens if Putin dies! Preferably, right away...Maybe we are in for a surprise when Putin dies/retires.
Maybe there isn't a clear cut successor.