I have heard that France was planning to intervene in the Austro-Prussian war on the side of the loser. To come as the savior and claim as much as the rhineland as possible for its trouble (ok, he had planned to help Prussia, but helping Austria would work too). Bismarck knew that and wanted peace as quickly as possible, so France wouldn't be able to intervene.
WI Prussia takes the Sudetenland from Austria in 1866?
- Thread starter imperialaquila
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I have heard that France was planning to intervene in the Austro-Prussian war on the side of the loser. To come as the savior and claim as much as the rhineland as possible for its trouble (ok, he had planned to help Prussia, but helping Austria would work too). Bismarck knew that and wanted peace as quickly as possible, so France wouldn't be able to intervene.
It says on the wiki (yes, I know, not the best source) that all the other major powers had either alliances that kept them from intervening or domestic problems that kept them occupied. Britain didn't care about the Continent, Russia didn't like Austria after Austria sided against them in the Crimean War and Prussia stood by Russia in the Polish uprisings in 1846 and 1848, France allegedly agreed secretly to stay out of an Austrian-Prussian war, Italy was an ally of Prussia. It alo said that Prussia's conscription system would allow Prussia to face Napoleon III with equal numbers while simultaneously beating the crap out of the Austrians with the main army. Granted, that army would have been reservists, not professionals, but they still would have been able to hold against the French until the main army returned from the Austrian front. I think the reason Bismarck asked for peace was that he didn't want to push his luck too far.
Eurofed
Banned
It is quite true that Russia and Britain would have very little motive and likelihood to intervene and bail out Austria. Napoleon III, however, played a complex game and expected to come out the mediator to enforce a compromise peace between Austria and Prussia-Italy that would weaken no side too much, give him some territorial gains, and reaffirm France as the hegemon of the continent. He started the war as a philo-Italian-Prussian, not really expecting the Prussian army to win so much and easily. So if Bismarck wins too much, he could switch sides. And Bismarck would not certainly gamble his luck in a two-front war, especially not with Austria not being completely defeated with an intact army in Italy, which making an advance on Vienna not wholly safe, so he would bow down to a compromise. This is the main problem with increasing Prussian-Italian gains in 1866 simply by making Prussia bolder after Sadowa.
This is why I used a two-step PoD for my 1866 TL: first, by making Italy make a better performance in the war, Austria is still wholly gutted without increasing the strategic burden on Prussia. If the Austrian army of Italy is destroyed at Custoza, and the Austrian fleet at Lissa, the Prussians can march in Vienna and/or making greater claims on the peace table without fearing an Austrian counterattack with the intact army of Italy. Moreover, a successful Italy would surely make rather greater requests at the peace table, Trento and Kustenland if not Dalmatia too, which would easily motivate the Prussian elites to increase their own, to all of Bohemia-Moravia and Saxony, and overrule Bismarck on this.
The threat of French intervention is still a very relevant issue, even a completely victorious Italo-Prussian alliance in the East would not likely gamble a two-front war with France. Remember, almost everyone in 1866 Europe deemed France the most powerful nation in the continent, and Berlin and Florence likely would not risk a war with it unless they can give it the full undivided weight of theirt military power. So a compromise peace that nets the Sudetenland and Saxony to Prussia, and Trento and Gorizia-Gradisca to Italy is the most likely outcome. It would not weaken Austria so much that France would care to veto it. Nonetheless, if all Austrian armies are destroyed, risking a two-front war becomes slightly more plausible for Prussia-Italy, if the least likely option, since they would only have to leave a limtied amount of troops to garrison occupied Austria and could shift the rest back West. Of course, France could exploit the interval to break out in the valuable Rhineland and northern Italy, Prusso-Italian reserves may or may not be able to keep them out. Fearing a French breakout is the main reason why Bismarck and his Italian allies would not likely gamble a war.
Of course, in the medium term, losing the 1866 war even worse than OTL almost surely sends the Habsburg empire on a death spiral within a decade. After France is beaten down in 1870, Berlin and Rome shall have no further obstacle to do what they want of the Habsburg heritage and can safely pick up the choice pieces of Austria when it falls down of its own. Russia can be bought with Krakow and Galicia, and Britain by giving diplomatic support to its efforts to limit Russian expansionism in the Balkans.
Alternatively, if you wish to save Austria nonetheless, have Francis Joseph make a devil's pact with Russia, he accepts to become a Russian vassal and give Russia a totally free rein in the Balkans, in exchange for a Russian military intervention to save its throne as in 1848. Quite likely, this ends up into an Anglo-German-Italian-Ottoman CPs vs. an Austro-Franco-Russian Entente.
This is why I used a two-step PoD for my 1866 TL: first, by making Italy make a better performance in the war, Austria is still wholly gutted without increasing the strategic burden on Prussia. If the Austrian army of Italy is destroyed at Custoza, and the Austrian fleet at Lissa, the Prussians can march in Vienna and/or making greater claims on the peace table without fearing an Austrian counterattack with the intact army of Italy. Moreover, a successful Italy would surely make rather greater requests at the peace table, Trento and Kustenland if not Dalmatia too, which would easily motivate the Prussian elites to increase their own, to all of Bohemia-Moravia and Saxony, and overrule Bismarck on this.
The threat of French intervention is still a very relevant issue, even a completely victorious Italo-Prussian alliance in the East would not likely gamble a two-front war with France. Remember, almost everyone in 1866 Europe deemed France the most powerful nation in the continent, and Berlin and Florence likely would not risk a war with it unless they can give it the full undivided weight of theirt military power. So a compromise peace that nets the Sudetenland and Saxony to Prussia, and Trento and Gorizia-Gradisca to Italy is the most likely outcome. It would not weaken Austria so much that France would care to veto it. Nonetheless, if all Austrian armies are destroyed, risking a two-front war becomes slightly more plausible for Prussia-Italy, if the least likely option, since they would only have to leave a limtied amount of troops to garrison occupied Austria and could shift the rest back West. Of course, France could exploit the interval to break out in the valuable Rhineland and northern Italy, Prusso-Italian reserves may or may not be able to keep them out. Fearing a French breakout is the main reason why Bismarck and his Italian allies would not likely gamble a war.
Of course, in the medium term, losing the 1866 war even worse than OTL almost surely sends the Habsburg empire on a death spiral within a decade. After France is beaten down in 1870, Berlin and Rome shall have no further obstacle to do what they want of the Habsburg heritage and can safely pick up the choice pieces of Austria when it falls down of its own. Russia can be bought with Krakow and Galicia, and Britain by giving diplomatic support to its efforts to limit Russian expansionism in the Balkans.
Alternatively, if you wish to save Austria nonetheless, have Francis Joseph make a devil's pact with Russia, he accepts to become a Russian vassal and give Russia a totally free rein in the Balkans, in exchange for a Russian military intervention to save its throne as in 1848. Quite likely, this ends up into an Anglo-German-Italian-Ottoman CPs vs. an Austro-Franco-Russian Entente.
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@Eurofed: I think this scenario was what I was trying to deermine the possibility of when I started this thread...So I think my question has been answered. Thanks!
Bright day
What buffer? The land that can be crossed in less than half a day by in a leisurely walk and is on the wrong side of a mountain range? A real mountain range and not just a glorified hills? An area that is the poorest part of Bohemia?
And how will Prussia force this issue? With the army that is dying of cholera? Yes, they have defeated Hannover- but that army is stuck there. Bavaria is still holding the line. And Italians have so fa mostly failed in army action and even more suprisingly in naval action.
You are putting the cart before the horses.