WI Prussia takes most of Czechoslovakia in 1866

In 1866, Bismarck strongly opposed Prussia grabbing some parts of Austria-Hungary even thow it would have been considered normal spoils of victory at the time.

The reasons were not bad - it would improve relations with AH, it would keep Britain, Russia, and France from fighting Prussia getting too strong, it would supposedly reduce fears of the militarist "huns".

But would it really have been that bad - I suppose Russia was too big to worry much about those few square miles. Britain was still far more powerful than Russia. Only France might have bothered, but they too would probably wait a little for better opportunities.

Grabbing the area which would later become Czechoslovakia would make the Germans a minority in AH, afaik. Hungary might become the dominating partnert, which might lead to strong centrifugal forces. AH might break up within a few years - especially if Prussia, Serbia, Italy, and other countries helped that a little bit.

It would also make Prussia stronger - lots of ressources, some modern industry, some new know-how, and so on.

The war against France might happen 1 or 2 years earlier and it might be initiated by France and not by a shortened German telegram, but I suppose it would have ended pretty similar - with a German unification under Prussian leadership.

Elsace-Lorraine might not become part of the newly founded empire, but imo that would be an advantage. Instead, Austria might join Germany after AH is split, maybe a few years after the war against France.

Austria would probably include Slovenia and therefore an access to the Mediterranean - a big advantage for fleet operations, and an incentive to build ships there. The situation might also allow Germany to build lots of ships without alienating the British - a medium fleet in the Baltics and a medium fleet in the Adria might be seen as less of a problem than a big fleet in the Baltics.

The Serbian problem wouldn't exist, except if Germany tried to expand into the Balkans (which I consider unlikely).

What next?
 
Austria would have kept fighting (they still had a lot of an army) if Prussia tried to make major gains- the peace was lenient enough that they didn't see any reason to do so.

And Germans were never a majority in AH, ever.

Also, there will be a lot of opposition in Bohemia and Moravia (Austrian Silesia not as much) to being forcibly joined to Prussia.
 
Bright day
The war would continue. Seeing as the Italian front was finished and Prussian army was down with disease deep in enemy territory. And Austrian allies will get to act.

And Czechs constituted 47%. Slovaks another twenty. If anything, it would increase percentage of Germans in Austrian empire.
 
And if the Prussians forced the issue and still got that peace, they could never have gone safely after France. Austria and France versus Prussia would have been a bit rougher on them. Probably they get stuck with the status quo, then wait till noone's looking and start calling themselves Germany even without the southern states.
 
Were the Czechs, Bohemian - Moravians, always opposed to Habsburg rule or did their national awakening only come about in the years immediately before WW1?
 
Were the Czechs, Bohemian - Moravians, always opposed to Habsburg rule or did their national awakening only come about in the years immediately before WW1?
I think the Czechs usually tended towards trying to get a better deal within the Austrian Empire rather than total independance...
 
Austria would have kept fighting (they still had a lot of an army) if Prussia tried to make major gains- the peace was lenient enough that they didn't see any reason to do so.

And Germans were never a majority in AH, ever.

Also, there will be a lot of opposition in Bohemia and Moravia (Austrian Silesia not as much) to being forcibly joined to Prussia.

I'm pretty sure Prussia would have won - the King even intended to parade through Vienna. A shaky victory or a lucky outcome of a close battle would probably have led to another decision.

While Germans weren't the majority, Hungarians also weren't. Without Czechoslovakia, that might change, though I don't know for sure.

I suppose the opposition could be dealt with - Silesia was also not very Prussian when it was conquered by Prussia. The nationality problems might result in big problems like Elsace-Lorraine, or in smaller problems like the Polish minority in Germany, though. I suppose anything is possible in this regard. I'd consider some kind of melting pot policy the most likely - but that might take 50 or more years to calm things down.
 
Bright day
The war would continue. Seeing as the Italian front was finished and Prussian army was down with disease deep in enemy territory. And Austrian allies will get to act.

And Czechs constituted 47%. Slovaks another twenty. If anything, it would increase percentage of Germans in Austrian empire.

Were there so many Austrian-Hungarian allies? Also, if the land was exchanged in the peace conference which had OTL results, there'd be the same time factor. No need to conquer more than was already conquered.

Your numbers leave 33% open. I suppose most of them would be Sudeten-Germans. How would their loss affect the power balance?

How well would AH have survived a war followed by a humiliating loss of territory? I suppose the Emperor might have to leave. Among others.
 
And if the Prussians forced the issue and still got that peace, they could never have gone safely after France. Austria and France versus Prussia would have been a bit rougher on them. Probably they get stuck with the status quo, then wait till noone's looking and start calling themselves Germany even without the southern states.

The sentiment for German unification was pretty strong. I suppose it would stay, and sable rattling French might even add to that.

Austria-Hungary falling apart would be no real danger for Germany - even if many of the remains would oppose Germany. Additionally, Germany would have the industries of Czechoslovakia, which might help to decide any war. Things might be tougher, but if Austria-Hungary split and Austrians decided to take part in the German economic union, that danger would be eliminated even more than IOTL.

There are risks and all kinds of possibilities there. But assuming a middle between German wank fest and French wank fest, I see good chances for the scenario to work, including admitting the remaining German states into a union later - at least until TTL version of wwi.
 
Were there so many Austrian-Hungarian allies? Also, if the land was exchanged in the peace conference which had OTL results, there'd be the same time factor. No need to conquer more than was already conquered.

Your numbers leave 33% open. I suppose most of them would be Sudeten-Germans. How would their loss affect the power balance?

How well would AH have survived a war followed by a humiliating loss of territory? I suppose the Emperor might have to leave. Among others.
There were Austro-Hungarian allies, sometimes known as "all of Germany minus Prussia" (an exaggeration, but not too much of one). I was under the impression that many of them were planning to contribute troops but the war ended before they could reinforce the front.

And Francis Joseph is probably one of the Emperors who could pull something off and save the Empire even after that...
 
I'm pretty sure Prussia would have won - the King even intended to parade through Vienna. A shaky victory or a lucky outcome of a close battle would probably have led to another decision.
I think that if Prussia pushed a Czechoslovak annexation, Austria would have kept fighting- leading most likely to the OTL decision, maybe with a few slight differences, just later than OTL. Austria can't fight indefinately, but neither can Prussia.
While Germans weren't the majority, Hungarians also weren't. Without Czechoslovakia, that might change, though I don't know for sure.
Slovakia may be enough to make the Hungarians a majority in Hungary (they were around 47% IIRC) Though there were a lot of Hungarians in Slovakia so maybe not. This could help the Empire- the Hungarians would be less opposed to political reforms if they were the majority.
I suppose the opposition could be dealt with - Silesia was also not very Prussian when it was conquered by Prussia. The nationality problems might result in big problems like Elsace-Lorraine, or in smaller problems like the Polish minority in Germany, though. I suppose anything is possible in this regard. I'd consider some kind of melting pot policy the most likely - but that might take 50 or more years to calm things down.
Silesia is completely different- Most of the population was already German, I believe. The Czechs are a totally different ethnicity- no one is insinuating the Sudeten Germans will be a problem, after all.
 
The prussian army is sitting on toiltets- diseas has spread through ranks.
Austrians are scrabling together second army from southern front.
Independent German kingdoms are finally ready to march...


And there is milion Hungarians in Slovakia. Only milion and half Germans in Bohemia.
 
I give up :)

What's your ideas then, if Prussia tried to annex (parts) of Czecholslovakia - preferably both with successful and less successful outcomes (imo, at least short term success is still the most likely)?
 
The Prussians would be fools to demand Slovakia (though I personally doubt they'd be in a position to). That's Hungarian territory, and the Hungarians don't like the Habsburgs one bit. Why turn an ally into an enemy? Not to mention that it would be undefendable, sandwiched between Hungary and Galicia.
 
The Prussians would be fools to demand Slovakia (though I personally doubt they'd be in a position to). That's Hungarian territory, and the Hungarians don't like the Habsburgs one bit. Why turn an ally into an enemy? Not to mention that it would be undefendable, sandwiched between Hungary and Galicia.

Let's assume then they only take the German speaking parts and maybe Czechia.
 
Afaik, the north and west of Czechoslovakia had sizable German speaking populations.

You need to stop confusing Czechoslovakia with the Czech lands. They can take the whole Czech lands if they actually do that good (which I doubt), I'm just saying it would be a smart diplomatic move to not ask for Slovakia even if they could actually get it.
 
I could imagine that they took Austrian Sileasia and the parts of Bohemia and Moravia with German population AND bordering Silesia.
 
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