WI Prussia takes most of Czechoslovakia in 1866

The opposite extreme would be Prussia still winning in 1871 but being hated by Austria for ever more with very different great power relations in the late 19th early 20th century.

Having 2 enemies on their borders instead of just one in the remote west might give Prussia some more humbleness it could use to make wwi less bad.

But I'm not sure how long AH would survive - and if AH falls apart, the population of Austria should have strong sentiments for joining a union with Germany, as IOTL after wwi.

What would there demands be? They sure wouldn't like a Prussia dominated Germany. Would there be reforms basically splitting up Prussia (which the nazis did, btw.)?

Would Prussia gain Alsace-Lorraine? It was the reason why a usally rather relaxed hatred/competition between France and Germany turned into "eternal enemyship" imo, which in the long run helped isolate Germany before wwi.

Many Mega-Butterflies here...
 
Which was exactly the reason why Bismarck gave Austria and the South German states a quite mild peace.

Oth, Prussia took Silesia before without much problems. One of the reasons it was different with A-L was that there lots of Francophiles in the area, made even more significant by rather clumsy dealing with the province.
 
But in the North, Prussians have already won. "Only" southern Germany and Austria are still resisting. And given the 1871 when Southern German states allied with Prussia - at the surprise of France - I don't think that Southern German states would fight along with French troops against the Prussians to get the French the Rhine frontier! I'd rather see them leaving the war or changing sides, Prussia taking the French intervention as perfect start for nationalistic propaganda about unifying the Empire once again.

Besides that, can anybody post links to something about the strength of Austria? There are many posts about how strong they were, but given their success in history after let's say 1848 I wonder where there strength has gone to?
I never suggested a Rhine frontier for France ever...only French client states. These would still be dejure independent principalities or even republics within the Confederation making up what was formerly Prussian Westphalia and Rhine Province. Austria's German allies may initially be defeated but as the Prussian offensive bogs down in Bohemia in the face of Hapsburg and Czech resistance they can regroup and be bolstered by the French forces...Can you hear the Marseillaise playing in Magdeburg
 
Yes, but that was about a century before... and Friedrich II had to make three wars to keep it.

I'd go for that in a Prussia wank scenario:

1866:

- Prussia keeps German and Czech speaking parts of todays Czechia and Slovakia. The war drags on 2 more months, but after that, AH has lost its reserves. There are some more battles against German states on the side of AH, but they are not really important, even if a few times the states win.

- France has to keep out of the war at that time because it was officially on the Prussian side at the beginning and falling into the back of Prussia wouldn't be considered a good idea in view of any future allieances.

- Russia isn't really bothered by that tiny speck of land in Europe, and it's also pissed at AH.

- GB is more annoyed, but it helped prop up Prussia just because it wanted Prussia to counter AH - no short term problems there.

1867:

- Prussia helps to dismantle the remains of AH by supporting independence movements, Serb resistance, and so on. Russia does the same. AH falls apart into Austria and Hungary.

1868:

- France finally has had enough and starts a war against Prussia without requiring any (further) Prussian provocation. As IOTL, it is caught completely off guard by modern warfare tactics, looses lots of ground, but thanks to the battles happening in Germany, the French emperor isn't caught. When Prussian troops, together with troops from southern German states, cross the Rhine, France agrees to peace. Unlike OTL, because the war is won with more losses, there's only little compensation and no change of territory (except maybe Germany gets an unimportant isle in the southern Atlantik or the likes). Germany unites as IOTL 3 years later.

- The war is seen as being unjust by Austrians, too, while the French were advancing, thus creating positive feelings for Germany. Therefore, after the war, Austria is ready to take a limited role in the German free trade zone. It is not ready for further unification, though, despite some popular pressure.

- Italy voices *strong* opinions against any moves of Austrian and German unification, thus unintentionally strengthening that movement.

1870:

(wankfest part, as such moves may be unlikely)

- Prussia is broken up into 5 or 6 independent states, other states are increased in size. A reform similar to what happened later under the fascists, and which should have happened much earlier, considering the harm done by Prussia dominating Germany too much. The German Emperor agrees because he still stays King of the largest state and he can make some people of his choices Princes of the other states, thus strengthening his (fragile) hold of the country.

- Prussia feels the danger of isolation earlier (while a competent Bismarck is still active) and does more to avoid that - arms reductions, naval treaties, alliances, trade agreements... That becomes a model for later politics, thus Germany doesn't get as isolated as IOTL.

- Czechs are given more rights to self determination, local language is used officially, and so on. Poles get a similar treatment. Germany turns "multicultural" while not really abandoning melting pot policies.

1872:

- Thanks to the reforms, and by agreeing on further reforms, Austria, including Slovenia, among others, takes the free trade agreement a step further to join in a military and other agreements. Steps are made to turn Germany into a federation of pretty equal states, so that Austria doesn't mind more and more integration.

- Italy is getting pissed of. But as it knows it doesn't have a chance, it doesn't start a war.

- Russia is still not bothered. It would be to them like Luxembourg joining Belgium would be to Germany.

- Britain is bothered, but can't find much against two countries deciding on their own to get closer together.

- France is pissed, but not enough to try another war, just 4 years after having lost in a similar situation.

- Germany, to avoid isolation, opens its ressource and other markets more to other countries like France, Britain, and so on. The economy profits from it.

The rest is open - don't have too much of a clue what would come. Maybe earlier colonial politics with slightly less ellbow tactics, or whatever.

It is pretty much "what could be" thinking, instead of simulating outcomes as realistically as possible. But on the other hand, more unlikely things happened against all odds...
 
I'd go for that in a Prussia wank scenario:

1866:

- Prussia keeps German and Czech speaking parts of todays Czechia and Slovakia. The war drags on 2 more months, but after that, AH has lost its reserves. There are some more battles against German states on the side of AH, but they are not really important, even if a few times the states win.

- France has to keep out of the war at that time because it was officially on the Prussian side at the beginning and falling into the back of Prussia wouldn't be considered a good idea in view of any future allieances.

- Russia isn't really bothered by that tiny speck of land in Europe, and it's also pissed at AH.

- GB is more annoyed, but it helped prop up Prussia just because it wanted Prussia to counter AH - no short term problems there.

1867:

- Prussia helps to dismantle the remains of AH by supporting independence movements, Serb resistance, and so on. Russia does the same. AH falls apart into Austria and Hungary.

1868:

- France finally has had enough and starts a war against Prussia without requiring any (further) Prussian provocation. As IOTL, it is caught completely off guard by modern warfare tactics, looses lots of ground, but thanks to the battles happening in Germany, the French emperor isn't caught. When Prussian troops, together with troops from southern German states, cross the Rhine, France agrees to peace. Unlike OTL, because the war is won with more losses, there's only little compensation and no change of territory (except maybe Germany gets an unimportant isle in the southern Atlantik or the likes). Germany unites as IOTL 3 years later.

- The war is seen as being unjust by Austrians, too, while the French were advancing, thus creating positive feelings for Germany. Therefore, after the war, Austria is ready to take a limited role in the German free trade zone. It is not ready for further unification, though, despite some popular pressure.

- Italy voices *strong* opinions against any moves of Austrian and German unification, thus unintentionally strengthening that movement.

1870:

(wankfest part, as such moves may be unlikely)

- Prussia is broken up into 5 or 6 independent states, other states are increased in size. A reform similar to what happened later under the fascists, and which should have happened much earlier, considering the harm done by Prussia dominating Germany too much. The German Emperor agrees because he still stays King of the largest state and he can make some people of his choices Princes of the other states, thus strengthening his (fragile) hold of the country.

- Prussia feels the danger of isolation earlier (while a competent Bismarck is still active) and does more to avoid that - arms reductions, naval treaties, alliances, trade agreements... That becomes a model for later politics, thus Germany doesn't get as isolated as IOTL.

- Czechs are given more rights to self determination, local language is used officially, and so on. Poles get a similar treatment. Germany turns "multicultural" while not really abandoning melting pot policies.

1872:

- Thanks to the reforms, and by agreeing on further reforms, Austria, including Slovenia, among others, takes the free trade agreement a step further to join in a military and other agreements. Steps are made to turn Germany into a federation of pretty equal states, so that Austria doesn't mind more and more integration.

- Italy is getting pissed of. But as it knows it doesn't have a chance, it doesn't start a war.

- Russia is still not bothered. It would be to them like Luxembourg joining Belgium would be to Germany.

- Britain is bothered, but can't find much against two countries deciding on their own to get closer together.

- France is pissed, but not enough to try another war, just 4 years after having lost in a similar situation.

- Germany, to avoid isolation, opens its ressource and other markets more to other countries like France, Britain, and so on. The economy profits from it.

The rest is open - don't have too much of a clue what would come. Maybe earlier colonial politics with slightly less ellbow tactics, or whatever.

It is pretty much "what could be" thinking, instead of simulating outcomes as realistically as possible. But on the other hand, more unlikely things happened against all odds...


Okay I know you said it was a Prussiawank scenario...but dude its so ASB its laughable....

France will never stay out of a longer initial confrontation with Austria. They were only "allied" as you put it because Napoleon III expected to be compensated for his support....he expected Austria to win...
Here that is not happening, he is not needed to save Prussia and he is getting no compensation for staying out of the mess....
You seriously expect them to remain on the sidelines.....I am rotflol so hard it aches.

Thatishow seriously flawed this scenario is....and I am sorry but I honestly do not think the Prussians would win in Bohemia because the defense is going to favour the Hapsburgs.
 
Okay I know you said it was a Prussiawank scenario...but dude its so ASB its laughable....

France will never stay out of a longer initial confrontation with Austria. They were only "allied" as you put it because Napoleon III expected to be compensated for his support....he expected Austria to win...
Here that is not happening, he is not needed to save Prussia and he is getting no compensation for staying out of the mess....
You seriously expect them to remain on the sidelines.....I am rotflol so hard it aches.

Thatishow seriously flawed this scenario is....and I am sorry but I honestly do not think the Prussians would win in Bohemia because the defense is going to favour the Hapsburgs.

I didn't say France stays on the side lines. I even said the Franco-Prussian war happens 3 years earlier due to Prussian expansion. I'm sure though it won't interfere in 1866, even 1867 - that would be betrayal, and rob France of chances to get into functioning alliances. Even if France would win, there'd be another war a few years later where France would be isolated and therefore lose, with similar results.

I believe it's an overestimation of the militarishness of the people of the time to think that such a scenario would automatically lead to war - the powers did have some rules of when and why to fight, the Prussians tended to be a little paranoied in this regard (little education at the time led to little knowledge about why the different wars started, they also wanted to justify their large military budget), but there's no reason to believe war would be unavoidable, or Prussia would be most likely to loose if it happened. Prussia was still small and economically unimportant at the time. The bad feelings came only after Bismarck was dead and the new emperor isolated Germany.

The defense didn't help the Austrians IOTL. Even with a better commander, that would probably not change decisively, because AH was decades behind Prussia in weapons. I even see a good possibility that without a single additional shot fired, the peace negotiations lead to AH loosing some land - they were expecting that anyways when they agreed to surrender.
 
I think that if France wasn't preoccupied with Mexico, they might actually join the war in 1866, if Prussia wants too much...
 
I didn't say France stays on the side lines. I even said the Franco-Prussian war happens 3 years earlier due to Prussian expansion. I'm sure though it won't interfere in 1866, even 1867 - that would be betrayal, and rob France of chances to get into functioning alliances. Even if France would win, there'd be another war a few years later where France would be isolated and therefore lose, with similar results.

I believe it's an overestimation of the militarishness of the people of the time to think that such a scenario would automatically lead to war - the powers did have some rules of when and why to fight, the Prussians tended to be a little paranoied in this regard (little education at the time led to little knowledge about why the different wars started, they also wanted to justify their large military budget), but there's no reason to believe war would be unavoidable, or Prussia would be most likely to loose if it happened. Prussia was still small and economically unimportant at the time. The bad feelings came only after Bismarck was dead and the new emperor isolated Germany.

The defense didn't help the Austrians IOTL. Even with a better commander, that would probably not change decisively, because AH was decades behind Prussia in weapons. I even see a good possibility that without a single additional shot fired, the peace negotiations lead to AH loosing some land - they were expecting that anyways when they agreed to surrender.

Obviously you have glasses that are tinted a little differently than the rest of us...suffice it to say you are entitled to your opinion....I think you underestimate the defensive capabilites of Hapsburgs on their own turf...and the over-estimate the power projection capbilities of the Prussians this time period. And you are grossly under stating the potential of and diplomatic aims of Napoleon III's France.

It is generally accepted that the ONLY reason there was no French involvement in this war, was because it was over before he could do anything about it and the Austrians and South Germans generally got off with very light terms. A longer war and he will intervene on whatever side will best secure the diplomatic aims that suit France....Regardless of whatever "understanding" Napoleon III may have had with Prussia, they clearly won't apply in this scenario. As Napoleon will re-evaluate the French position as the war drags on in Bohemia and it appears that France will not get its hpped for compensation. Austria will look to be having a hard time and there will be potential for more crushing terms if they are defeated....
Prussian militarism will be dominant in Germany, not a situation the French will want...They WILL most assuredly intervene...There is NOTHING that will prevent it short of coming to the Austrians and their allies aid to secure their own diplomatic agenda.

In this case it will be Austria.. and its German allies....
 
But who could predict during the war that France wouldn't get anything? Bismarck had made only vague promises, if any... and as I said, France was still preoccupied in Mexico.
 
Obviously you have glasses that are tinted a little differently than the rest of us...suffice it to say you are entitled to your opinion....I think you underestimate the defensive capabilites of Hapsburgs on their own turf...and the over-estimate the power projection capbilities of the Prussians this time period. And you are grossly under stating the potential of and diplomatic aims of Napoleon III's France.

It is generally accepted that the ONLY reason there was no French involvement in this war, was because it was over before he could do anything about it and the Austrians and South Germans generally got off with very light terms. A longer war and he will intervene on whatever side will best secure the diplomatic aims that suit France....Regardless of whatever "understanding" Napoleon III may have had with Prussia, they clearly won't apply in this scenario. As Napoleon will re-evaluate the French position as the war drags on in Bohemia and it appears that France will not get its hpped for compensation. Austria will look to be having a hard time and there will be potential for more crushing terms if they are defeated....
Prussian militarism will be dominant in Germany, not a situation the French will want...They WILL most assuredly intervene...There is NOTHING that will prevent it short of coming to the Austrians and their allies aid to secure their own diplomatic agenda.

In this case it will be Austria.. and its German allies....

As said, I don't believe Prussia taking some land from AH will necessarily lead to a (much) prolonged war, though it's a possibility.

But as we won't agree anyways, I suppose we can leave it at that.
 
As said, I don't believe Prussia taking some land from AH will necessarily lead to a (much) prolonged war, though it's a possibility.

But as we won't agree anyways, I suppose we can leave it at that.
Czechia isn't just "some land" though, it's a key and wealthy province of the Empire.
 
Czechia isn't just "some land" though, it's a key and wealthy province of the Empire.

Same to Silesia, Alsace-Lorraine, eastern parts of Prussia, Northern Ireland, Egypt, and so on - all of them were parts of other countries and were exchanged in wars, the results often stable for decades or more.
 
Same to Silesia, Alsace-Lorraine, eastern parts of Prussia, Northern Ireland, Egypt, and so on - all of them were parts of other countries and were exchanged in wars, the results often stable for decades or more.
Silesia is the best comparison, and that's still not enough... and Maria Theresa launched quite a few wars to regain Silesia, destabilizing Europe. Bohemia is a hugely important part of the Hapsburg Monarchy, Austria would be attacking Prussia at every single chance it got for the next century if Prussia managed to take it.
 
Silesia is the best comparison, and that's still not enough... and Maria Theresa launched quite a few wars to regain Silesia, destabilizing Europe. Bohemia is a hugely important part of the Hapsburg Monarchy, Austria would be attacking Prussia at every single chance it got for the next century if Prussia managed to take it.

I'd have to agree here...all this does is incurr an enduring emnity between Austria and Prussia and war at the very next opportunity that will see Prussian defeat. As to the French Mexican adventure...this longer engagement between Austria and Prussia probably hastens the French exit from Mexico. France is a continental power in Europe, its not like they don't have forces in France itself that cannot intervene if needed. As to the vague promises of Bismarck...once the Prussians attempt to crush the Austrians in Bohemia its going to be blatantly obvious to everyone in Napoleon III's France that Bismarck's promises are worthless, or at least suspect and that a better avenue to secure their own diplomatic ends would be to intervene to "Save" Austria....

Count on it....
 
Silesia is the best comparison, and that's still not enough... and Maria Theresa launched quite a few wars to regain Silesia, destabilizing Europe. Bohemia is a hugely important part of the Hapsburg Monarchy, Austria would be attacking Prussia at every single chance it got for the next century if Prussia managed to take it.

True.

Thus we would have a Prussia-Germany that is faced with AH and France as enemies. AH as enemy means Russia, Romania, Serbia and Italy as friends as well as nationalistic Hungarians. And at the same time, Germany is getting stronger every year thanks to population increase and economic development. And in this scenario you could also add Bohemia and Moravia to Germany, which are the most prosperous provinces of AH, as is stated above, and the industrious centres of the Habsburg monarchy.
Then, with two enemies of the new Empire, the Germans would surely not care about a fleet, but only about ground troops. Thus no Hochseeflotte and no British concern about it.

So, if Prussia somehow wins Bohemia, a WWI-scenario with the central powers against the rest would be very unlikely. In fact, we'd have quite an interesting timeline!
 
As to the vague promises of Bismarck...once the Prussians attempt to crush the Austrians in Bohemia its going to be blatantly obvious to everyone in Napoleon III's France that Bismarck's promises are worthless, or at least suspect and that a better avenue to secure their own diplomatic ends would be to intervene to "Save" Austria...

What do Bismarck's promises that France may gain parts of the Rhineland have to do with that? The French knew that there'd be war, and of course the Prussians would try to crush Austria. I don't know that Bismarck had made any promises not to do so.
 
What do Bismarck's promises that France may gain parts of the Rhineland have to do with that? The French knew that there'd be war, and of course the Prussians would try to crush Austria. I don't know that Bismarck had made any promises not to do so.

Yes but the French expected that the Prussians would not have the easy victory that they did in OTL and that French intervention to help them would bring them some compensation.here that is not happening and yes the French knew there would inevitably be war in Germany, but now it will not be on terms to their liking..as Prussia will try to crush Austria ( which honestly is a Prussiawank ASB scenario to be serious, as Austria would almost certainly defeat the Prussians in Bohemia and force the status quo ante bellum) and make it impossible for them to get any compensation. For them to gain any influence or any measure of their own agenda its blatantly obvious that intervening to help Austria and its German allies is the best course. If Bismarck can go back on his vague promises OTL and cut the French out of their hoped for compensation...Napoleon the III is equally capable of going back on his own vagure promises not to intervene when it looks that French intervention and therefore its political leverage with the Prussians is not necessary...
 
In any case, Britain would really frown upon Napoleon getting the Rhineland. Look at a map, it's pretty clear Belgium will be next...
 
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