WI Prussia takes most of Czechoslovakia in 1866

[Chengar Qordath]

It also bears reminding that the Ausgleich was after (and largely a result of) the Austro-Prussian war; it seems a few people have forgotten that.

I would agree that it seems unlikely that Prussia would want Slovakia, which as others have pointed out is sandwiched between Hungary and Galicia. As I recall Slovakia was not particularly valuable either, at least not compared to the lands that make up the modern Czech state.

 

[Susano]

I dont think Prussia would have determined the new boundaries by ethnicity. Especially if the scenario is that the King simply rejects Bismarck's strategy. Bismarck would have the "nationalist option" in mind, but King Wilhelm surely not.

So, what it will come down to is probably French intervention - Prussia loses the West Rhinish territories to France, and Silesia to Austria, or somesuch...

 

[Chengar Qordath]

So, what it will come down to is probably French intervention - Prussia loses the West Rhinish territories to France, and Silesia to Austria, or somesuch...

As I recall the French were initially favorable to the Prussians, as Austria and France had traditionally been enemies, and had fought a war not too long ago in Italy.

 

[Susano]

Yes, thats true - but Napoleon IIIs plans were based on the assumption that Prussia would lose. Not an unreasonable assumption, most people expected just that. Then France would appear as saving angel, and demand the West Rhinishc Territories in return. At least, in Nappy-3s mind.

However, after Königsgrätz of course that plan was screwed. And that is, IMO, THE main reason why Bismarck wanted to make a quick peace. He didnt primarily want to have Austria as a potential future ally, mostly he wanted to create accomplished facts before Napoleon III could intervene. And IMO, he would have, if the war had dragged on.

Napoleon IIIs main aim was not defeating the Austrians - if that happened, fine, but maily he wanted the West Rhinish Territories, and after Königsgrätz that was only possible by entering the war on the Austrian side. So, if the war had dragged on, France would have done that, and against two great powers, Prussia wouldnt have stood a chance.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

As I recall the French were initially favorable to the Prussians, as Austria and France had traditionally been enemies, and had fought a war not too long ago in Italy.

True, but Napoleon III's idea was that he was going to bail out Prussia in exchange for some Rhenish territory. Since Prussia's actually winning, he'll help the Austrians to balance things in Germany, which was the important thing.

EDIT: Damnit, Susano beat me to it!

 

[Max Sinister]

Didn't Nap3 actually hope that the Prussian-Austrian War would take quite long (maybe years?), leaving Germany weakened and giving him free hand?

 

[Susano]

That might be, but he had one clear objective (different as to the whole Italian affair, where he just vaguely hoped an united Italian State might be of aid to France) - he wanted the Rhine Westbank. I dont think he cared if it was to through a longdrawn inner-German war, by saving Prussia or by fighting Prussia. He might additionally have hoped for a longdrawn war, but that would have been, hm, just a bonus.

 

[Max Sinister]

Since when did he hope for a united Italy? Originally he had only planned to conquer Lombardy and form an Italian confederation with the pope as a figurehead. Instead, Savoy-Piedmont annexed all other Italian states except for Latium, and France suddenly got a powerful neighbor, instead of a few helpless, easily-dominated small states.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Since when did he hope for a united Italy? Originally he had only planned to conquer Lombardy and form an Italian confederation with the pope as a figurehead. Instead, Savoy-Piedmont annexed all other Italian states except for Latium, and France suddenly got a powerful neighbor, instead of a few helpless, easily-dominated small states.

It wasn't quite like that. He wanted to give the Sardinians Venetia too, and it seems he actually considered letting them keep Savoy and Nice when he failed at it.

 

[Susano]

Exactly my point. France did prop up Sardinia-Piemont though, helped them in the War against Austria, for example. In teh end, France enabled Saridnia-Piemont to unify Italy, but that didnt make Italy a loyal ally, as Napoleon III had hoped. Instead, as you said, it even kind abackfired as there suddenly was one more (relatively) powerful neighbour.

So, Napoleon III. surely wasnt all that grand in international strategy... but at least he did have a clear-define dobjective (THE base condition for a good strategy) in the German War.

So... but, before we lose focus again, lets stay on topic:
Wilhelm lets the war drag on. Prussia makes gains in Bohemia, but eventually France intervenes. Prussia cannot win against both, even with Italian help (and I dont think therell be a French-Italian theatre, for that matter).
So, in the end, I could imagine a peace solution like that: France wins the West Rhinish Territories, including Palatinate (but excluding Rhine Hessia, there is just nothing to compensate Hesse-Darmstadt with). Bavaria is compensated with the East Rhineland and Westphalia (thus Prussia loses all western possessions). Austria Wins (back) Silesia and Lombardy. Hannover wins Brunswick and Southern Oldenburg. Saxony may win back parts of all of what it lost 1815. Nassau wins the Prussian Wetzler exclave, and the Hesses the Prussian territories in Thuringia.

So, what happens now, in that situation?

Alternatively, there might be a chance Russia intervenes, and that would change everything... but that chance is very small. But if it happens, I would say the Prussian side wins, in which case we the IOTL consequences, plus additional losses for Austria and France: France might lose the Alsace, or even also Lorraine (the Province, not the small part Germany took IOTL), Austria might lose Bohemia (to Prussia), Galicia (to Russia), Dalmatia and Tyrol (to Italy)...

What happens in THAT situation?

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Wilhelm lets the war drag on. Prussia makes gains in Bohemia, but eventually France intervenes. Prussia cannot win against both, even with Italian help (and I dont think therell be a French-Italian theatre, for that matter).
So, in the end, I could imagine a peace solution like that: France wins the West Rhinish Territories, including Palatinate (but excluding Rhine Hessia, there is just nothing to compensate Hesse-Darmstadt with). Bavaria is compensated with the East Rhineland and Westphalia (thus Prussia loses all western possessions). Austria Wins (back) Silesia and Lombardy. Hannover wins Brunswick and Southern Oldenburg. Saxony may win back parts of all of what it lost 1815. Nassau wins the Prussian Wetzler exclave, and the Hesses the Prussian territories in Thuringia.

I don't see it. France taking up the Rhine bank will piss off a lot of Germans, so I don't see them convincing Bavaria to give up the Palatinate. And Napoleon would never allow Austria to take back Lombardy.

Alternatively, there might be a chance Russia intervenes, and that would change everything... but that chance is very small. But if it happens, I would say the Prussian side wins, in which case we the IOTL consequences, plus additional losses for Austria and France: France might lose the Alsace, or even also Lorraine (the Province, not the small part Germany took IOTL), Austria might lose Bohemia (to Prussia), Galicia (to Russia), Dalmatia and Tyrol (to Italy)...

If Russia intervenes, I see it as a given that Britain also will - on the opposite side.

 

[Susano]

You think so? IMO, there would be great distaste in GB for entering a war that has gotten so huge already.

And Bavaria simply might have no other choice. They will be compensated sicne tehy are nominally an ally of France, but I have no doubt that if they reject that, France will simply occupy the Palatinate. About Lombardy... hm, true, maybe, but then, Italy will be pissed anyways that France was in the war on the Austrian side, so Napoleon III might drop his support for Italy. Then again, Napoleon III seemed to not have though such rationally in regards to Italy...

 

[Andrei]

I give up

What's your ideas then, if Prussia tried to annex (parts) of Czecholslovakia - preferably both with successful and less successful outcomes (imo, at least short term success is still the most likely)?

I think that if Prussia had tried to annex Czechia , the Austrians would have continued to fight and would have reached a stalemate . The Austrians had better artillery and their rifles had longer range than the Prussian ones ( however , the Prussian rifles had a higher rate of fire ). Also , the Austrian northern army would have been reinforced by the army that defeated the Italians and would have been lead by a competent commander ( archduke Albert instead of fieldmarschall Benedek )

However , if Prussia had managed to annex Czechia , Austria would have sided with France in the Franco-Prussian war.

 

[jolo]

I think that if Prussia had tried to annex Czechia , the Austrians would have continued to fight and would have reached a stalemate . The Austrians had better artillery and their rifles had longer range than the Prussian ones ( however , the Prussian rifles had a higher rate of fire ). Also , the Austrian northern army would have been reinforced by the army that defeated the Italians and would have been lead by a competent commander ( archduke Albert instead of fieldmarschall Benedek )

However , if Prussia had managed to annex Czechia , Austria would have sided with France in the Franco-Prussian war.

As the outcome of the battles showed, the high firing rates (helped by the fact that the Prussians didn't need to stand up to reload their rifles) were decisive, and AH would have little time and money to modernise.

Furthermore, IOTL the 1871 war was initiated by a confident Prussia. Prussia feeling less sure about a victory might avoid a war, if possible.

Looking at how superior Prussia was against France in 1871 afaik, They might have been able to handle a weakend AH, too. But I consider it more likely that AH would be busy with internal problems, or broken apart by that time.

Other points mentioned by others are also interesting - a prolonged war was not really considered by me, but it might be possible.

Some points aren't as important to me - cannons of that era are a good weapon against defensive positions, and, with canisters, also against troops fighting without cover. Both wouldn't really apply to Prussia imo. Prussia was imo more advanced in weapons and tactics than France or AH.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I think that if Prussia had tried to annex Czechia , the Austrians would have continued to fight and would have reached a stalemate . The Austrians had better artillery and their rifles had longer range than the Prussian ones ( however , the Prussian rifles had a higher rate of fire ). Also , the Austrian northern army would have been reinforced by the army that defeated the Italians and would have been lead by a competent commander ( archduke Albert instead of fieldmarschall Benedek )

However , if Prussia had managed to annex Czechia , Austria would have sided with France in the Franco-Prussian war.

Ah there is that last point to consider........some of the South Germans (Bavaria) might not also have supported Prussia in that war because of Austrian influence. Of course then it might not even occur right.

However i am with what appears the main body here...If Prussia attempts to annex even a portion of Bohemia they will face defeat. the Austrians were defeated at Koniggratz...but that is one battle. One battle does not win the war....the treaty negotiations will win that war. Here those will not occur as Austria will withdraw to more defensible terrain in Bohemia where the monarchy has at least the support of the Czechs (in hopes of them getting a better deal within the Austrian empire, here that is indeed likely because their support will probably be key in finally defeating the Prussians in Bohemia itself. A triple monarchy in the aftermath lets say). Since Austria looks to be losing and Nappy's hoped for compensation is evaporating he will intervene to give himself a seat at the bargaining table when the dust settles. While he may want the Rhine terr. he could settle for setting up Fr. influenced buffer states and trimming Prussia down a bit so that its militarism does not come to dominate the German Confederation....Silesia back to Austria if in the unlikely event they regroup, and the Prussians under pressure from the French and Austria's German allies (basically everyone who counts other than Austria or Prussia) are forced to withdraw from there and it gives them an opportunity to advance. Unlikely, as I think the Prussians would probably make peace at that point as their gambit has obviously failed, but possible...the Prussians have engineered this war afterall.

So probably the status quo with Austria Terr. wise...but no Dual alliance as Austria has had to fight to get the status quo instead of getting lenient terms at the peace table. The Rhine provinces are separated as French Client states within the confederation..with perhaps an amalgamation of the southern bits to enlarge the Bav. Palatinate..Germany is divided into an Anglo-French, Austrian and Prussian sphere of influence.

Prussia might at some point consolidate its sphere as united Kdm of Prussia but the rest probably remain separate states....

Austria will be more centered on its Slav and Hungarian terr....and will have to settle for influencing the course of events in the confederation.

Austro French rapproachement in the aftermath perhaps..... Prussian-Russian-Italian alliance as the Austro/Russian rivalry heats up in the Balkans. Perhaps no WWI as we knowit as the alliance structure is different....Br/France afterall will want Austria to exercise some restraint with regards to the Balkans if they can....though they might also be supportive of Austria in the initial Balkan conflicts leading up to it..so that whole Balkan Powderkeg may have been altered by the WWI of OTL. Perhaps one of those initial Balkan conflicts actually develops into a GRt War situation instead. Continuation of the Obrenovics in Serbia for instance. Poland a possible weak point of both the Prussians and Russians as Austria becomes more supportive of its Slav elements...triumph of Austroslavism at last.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

As the outcome of the battles showed, the high firing rates (helped by the fact that the Prussians didn't need to stand up to reload their rifles) were decisive, and AH would have little time and money to modernise.

Furthermore, IOTL the 1871 war was initiated by a confident Prussia. Prussia feeling less sure about a victory might avoid a war, if possible.

Looking at how superior Prussia was against France in 1871 afaik, They might have been able to handle a weakend AH, too. But I consider it more likely that AH would be busy with internal problems, or broken apart by that time.

Other points mentioned by others are also interesting - a prolonged war was not really considered by me, but it might be possible.

Some points aren't as important to me - cannons of that era are a good weapon against defensive positions, and, with canisters, also against troops fighting without cover. Both wouldn't really apply to Prussia imo. Prussia was imo more advanced in weapons and tactics than France or AH.

Prussia may have superior tactics and weapons in some fields but this will get them victory in a short war.....in this case the war WILL be longer and it will result in more players at the table.....that is unavoidable.....the superior manpower/resources of Austria and her German allies supported by the French will tell in the end...and DEFEAT Prussia

 

[jolo]

Prussia may have superior tactics and weapons in some fields but this will get them victory in a short war.....in this case the war WILL be longer and it will result in more players at the table.....that is unavoidable.....the superior manpower/resources of Austria and her German allies supported by the French will tell in the end...and DEFEAT Prussia

I'm not completely convinced in the unavoidability of a war at that stage - other countries got away with more, and they were partly in a weaker position.

There might be some need for more modesty afterwards - like less ship building, reducing army size, or the likes, but I suppose Bismarck would know that.

There might also be some shared influence in the western provinces between France and Prussia - like limited military, open markets so that France can buy resources there, and so on.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I'm not completely convinced in the unavoidability of a war at that stage - other countries got away with more, and they were partly in a weaker position.

There might be some need for more modesty afterwards - like less ship building, reducing army size, or the likes, but I suppose Bismarck would know that.

There might also be some shared influence in the western provinces between France and Prussia - like limited military, open markets so that France can buy resources there, and so on.

That would only be the case if France would intervene to save Prussia...which of course in this scenario is not the case, as Prussia does not need saving and looks to be gaining terr with no compensation for France....
If they intervene in this scenario...it will be to support the Austrian German allies and increase their influence...and hopefully prevent any major gains by Prussia at Austria's expense. They can then count on the Austrians...under the right circumstances to preserve the three way dynamic in the Confederation between the Anglo-French...Prussians and Austrians down the road and forstall any attempts to Unify Germany under Prussian leadership. Something they will want to avoid at all costs.

 

[Homer]

Prussia may have superior tactics and weapons in some fields but this will get them victory in a short war.....in this case the war WILL be longer and it will result in more players at the table.....that is unavoidable.....the superior manpower/resources of Austria and her German allies supported by the French will tell in the end...and DEFEAT Prussia

But in the North, Prussians have already won. "Only" southern Germany and Austria are still resisting. And given the 1871 when Southern German states allied with Prussia - at the surprise of France - I don't think that Southern German states would fight along with French troops against the Prussians to get the French the Rhine frontier! I'd rather see them leaving the war or changing sides, Prussia taking the French intervention as perfect start for nationalistic propaganda about unifying the Empire once again.

Besides that, can anybody post links to something about the strength of Austria? There are many posts about how strong they were, but given their success in history after let's say 1848 I wonder where there strength has gone to?

 

[Wozza]

I give up

What's your ideas then, if Prussia tried to annex (parts) of Czecholslovakia - preferably both with successful and less successful outcomes (imo, at least short term success is still the most likely)?

Successful? for who?

The most likely outcome would be Prussia losing the Franco-Prussian war due to Austrian intervention.

The opposite extreme would be Prussia still winning in 1871 but being hated by Austria for ever more with very different great power relations in the late 19th early 20th century.