WI Prussia annexed Bohemia.

In the west German Bohemia and Austria, in the east the Russian czardom, Hungary between them. In this situation, it will happen what happens everytime when a territory is disputed between two powers (like Armenia was in ancient times) - the two powers will try to get political and economic influence in the little country.
Hungary would naturally gravitate towards Germany for the same reasons Austria-Hungary did. Russia's pan-slavic and Balkan ambitions would not win them any friends in Budapest. The Hungarian government's foreign policy would center around finding an ally that could protect them from Russia.
 
Maybe I´m misunderstanding you, are yo saying that either Germany or Russia would oppose independent Hungary in 1867?
He's saying an independent Hungary you'll be a flashpoint in Russo-German relations, Russia will want a slice (a very big one) and Germany will support Hungary in any situation.
 
He's saying an independent Hungary you'll be a flashpoint in Russo-German relations, Russia will want a slice (a very big one) and Germany will support Hungary in any situation.
Yeah but not means an indepdent Hungary creation, that balls is in Hasburg and Hungarian Magnates court how they played and who fumbled it first is how that unfold. Someone say a more dominated Hungarian Empire, other a more 'federalize one', both are pausable options as they got an early divorce and we would get a rump Austria and Hungary with Crotia and Part of Bosnia.
 
And why would Hungary go for independence? With the Austrian half weakened by the loss of Bohemia, Hungarian influence in the Dual Monarchy would be even greater than OTL, so they have no particular reason to secede.
 
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Hmm, the possiblity of a Prussian Bohemia raises a lt of question pertaining potential butterflies.

First, let's take into consideration the distribution of economic development within A-H: True capitalistic industrial modernization only really gained momentum in the empie AFTER the formation of the Dual Monarchy, with economic growth being focused around the Austrian and Bohemian crownlands, as well as the recently booming Hungarian city of Pest, the commercial, political and cultural center of Transleithania, wich was merged with the old capitals of Buda and Obuda to form Budapest. Only by the end of the 19th century did this trend began to expand into the Hungarian Plain and Carpathean region, while the easternmost regions were an important source of grain and, in the case of galicia, oil (in the early 20th century, mostly). So, in the short term, the balance of (economic) power in the still pseudo-medieval Habsburg empire will start to lean to the Hungarian side, which will make it even easier for them to press the emperor into a Dual Monarchy, as I too don't believe they would push for full indepedence if they feel they can have the upper hand in the relationship.

Second, there's the military drawback of losing Bohemia, from where a disproportionally large part of the Austrian army was recruited, and represented around 15 % of the population of Cisleithania (Austrian side). So this means that the army will either never be the same, or will come to depend heavily on some other province (maybe Transylvania), which would further diminish Austrian power in the DM and, maybe more importantly, might make them less able to defend their posessions than they were IOTL. Im particularly thinking of a future attempt by Italy to claim Trentino and Trieste, as in this scenario a Hungarian dominated military may be less determined to fight for Austrian territories full of noisy italians and slavs. As a side note, under Prussian military command Bohemia might be even more of a valuable asset than it was to Habsburg military, which might have an effect in the Franco-Prussian war.

In the middle to long term however, I'm a bit exceptical about the survival of this alternate A-H. Assuming it doesnt get butchered in another war (which I think might just be the most likely scenario, but more on that in next post), as long as industrialization progresses like IOTL, the power balance will become way too... balanced. Part of what kept the mess that was A-H intact was that the Austrians had the clear upperhand, and thats a position that mostly rural Hungary is unlikely to be able to mantain. An equal power distribution will lead to even more friction with the Magyar nobility, and as a consequence the empire runs the risk of becoming increasingly divided due to unability to get things done.

I'll talk about how this could affect Prussia and the other continental european countries in anothe post, but I hope this gives some food for thought. Also, something to this effect has been discussed before: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/pc-prussia-presses-on-after-königgrätz.386490/ Its basically about what happens if Prussia presses on after the Battle of Konningratz, which is probably what would be necessary to do in order to get FJ to accept this terms.

PS: This is my first post, so I REALLY hope it doesnt get buried T_T
 
PS: This is my first post, so I REALLY hope it doesnt get buried T_T

No reason why it should be. It's an eminently sensible one.

OTOH, there might be positives for Austria as well as negatives. She doesn't get the wrangling over the status of the Czech language in Bohemia, as the Moravian Czechs alone won't be strong enough to do very much, esp as their only alternative to Austrian rule would be annexation by Germany. So assuming the Galician Poles are bought off as OTL, the German ascendancy in Austria will be that much stronger.

The Monarchy will be weaker in 1914, but paradoxically, that might be a blessing in disguise, if it forces her to adopt a defensive strategy in Galicia, rather than Conrad's disastrous offensive.
 
One possible butterfly. Does Emil Skoda still buy what became the Skoda Works in 1869? And if so does it still become an armaments factory later? According to Wiki, he studied engineering at Karlsruhe as well as Prague, so he might stay in Bohemia as a Prussian subject. But that's only a guess.

If it develops as OTL, then the Skoda Guns that demolished Liege in 1914 will belong to Germany from the outset. They won't need to scrounge them from Austria-Hungary. If Liege falls several days earlier, it could have a significant effect on the opening campaign of WW1.
 
OTOH, there might be positives for Austria as well as negatives. She doesn't get the wrangling over the status of the Czech language in Bohemia, as the Moravian Czechs alone won't be strong enough to do very much, esp as their only alternative to Austrian rule would be annexation by Germany. So assuming the Galician Poles are bought off as OTL, the German ascendancy in Austria will be that much stronger.

The Monarchy will be weaker in 1914, but paradoxically, that might be a blessing in disguise, if it forces her to adopt a defensive strategy in Galicia, rather than Conrad's disastrous offensive.

I think you are being way too optimistic about the empire's survival. Assuming that things go like in our timeline would require for Austria to still be willing to ally with germany after what will very likely be seen as an act of ill will: an intentional blow to Austrian national pride. This sentiment will be the most inmediate result of the annexation and will create an anti-prussianism that will last for decades. But the point where this seems to endanger the empire the most is during the Franco-Prussian war; I think it is very likely that they will jump into the war during that period of time where everybody thought that France was going to roflstomp Prussia. As soon as the first couple of crushing French defeats happen Italy will jump at the chance of getting Trentino and Trieste, and while the war will be harder for the German alliance, I'm pretty sure that unless they get a lucky victory Austria will get herself annexed. The Russians were still pissed off by Austrian neutrality during the Crimean war and the Brits wont intervene for the same reasons they didnt IOTL (mainly exhauted political capital to push for another war after the Crimean mess) and that will be it for A-H. If you dont believe Britain will remain nuetral even n the prospect a dangerous shift in the balance of power, take into account that they didnt even go to war in 1877, and simply watched Russia undo everything they had achieved in Crimea.
 
I think you are being way too optimistic about the empire's survival. Assuming that things go like in our timeline would require for Austria to still be willing to ally with germany after what will very likely be seen as an act of ill will: an intentional blow to Austrian national pride. This sentiment will be the most inmediate result of the annexation and will create an anti-prussianism that will last for decades. But the point where this seems to endanger the empire the most is during the Franco-Prussian war; I think it is very likely that they will jump into the war during that period of time where everybody thought that France was going to roflstomp Prussia.


Trouble is that Austrian mobilisation would take six to eight weeks; so unless Franz Josef declares war before his army is mobilised (most unlikely) by the time it is complete Bazaine will be already trapped in Metz and Sedan will either already have happened or be imminent. After two lost wars, FJ was belt-and-braces cautious, and I can't see him risking war unless it's a sure thing. OTL, he could, whilst the French and Prussians were otherwise engaged, have had a go at Italy to regain Venetia - but he didn't, though it would have been a far lower risk than taking on Prussia.

Nor do I really see Austria being annexed. That would have greatly strengthened the non-Prussian element in Germany, Iirc Bizzy was on record as saying he would have offered Austria easy terms after the first victory. At worst she might lose Olmutz or something, but Anschluss wasn't on the Prussian agenda.

I agree that Austria would have been disgruntled (she was even OTL) but her options are limited. France is a busted flush, as the new Reich can easily defeat even France and Austria combined, and their rivalry in the Balkans makes a Russian alliance impossible. So Germany is left as the only game in town.
 
One must also remember that the alliance between Sardinia and Prussia became fact and that such an alliance makes those allies the strongest grouping in Europe because of both their central location viz east west interests and the total domination of north south spheres.
It is considered the strongest play in European alliances of all ages I.e. Charlemagnes empire or the Axis powers of the Second World War where both gained enormous advantage because of this geo political stance.
In this particular case, Bavaria Wurtemburg and Baden would be the spoilers as they were not as pro Prussian as would be necessary for the annexation to work.

There was not alliance just Cavour(or was his sucessor?) asking Bismarck if Italy would get support against Austria, Bismarck never give it but seems they think would get it if conquer something and Sardinia was unable to beat austria both in land and sea so that means little.

Yeah checking the maps with Bohemia Only Austria still keep Moravia and land route to Galicia, so not mayor changes there just Polish become more important that chech.

In 1866 there was no more a kingdom of Sardinia, since the kingdom of Italy had been proclaimed 5 years earlier in 1861.
The alliance (because there was an alliance between Prussia and Italy, although in the 19th century style was time-limited) had been proposed by Bismarck, since it was vital for Prussia to avoid the possibility for Austria to concentrate all of its troops in Bohemia (incidentally, Italian Prime Minister was La Marmora: Cavour had died in 1861). Italy had acceded to the proposal, but without an exceeding enthusiasm (the fear was that at a certain point Prussia and Austria might decide to stop the war among them, leaving Austria free to continue the war against Italy alone. Under the terms of the treaty, Prussia had committed not to cease hostilities against Austria unless with the agreement of Italy, or unless Austria accepted to cede Venetia to Italy (which is also why Prussia continued activities in Bohemia until Italy had almost completely occupied Venetia). The early death of Cavour, just 51 years old, had been a very bad blow for the newly minted kingdom of Italy.

The annexation of Bohemia was never really in the cards, for a number of reasons: Prussia would already increase substantially its surface and population after the war (annexation of Hanover, Schleswig-Holstein, norther half of Hesse, plus the inclusion of the remaining Northern German states in the NCG), and by grabbing Bohemia too would have created a wave of anti-Prussian sentiment among the neutral Powers; losing Bohemia and Venetia would have weakened too much the Austrian empire, creating instability in Central Europe and again drawing the Powers in; Bismarck (and most of the German nationalists) did not want to add ethnic minorities to Germany (the Gross-Deutschland option had never got a lot of traction even in 1848, and had been voted down by the Frankfurt assembly). IMHO Bismarck would have resigned if the king had thrown a tantrum over the annexation of Bohemia, which to his credit FW didn't. I would also believe that Bismarck would have been recalled by FW very quickly once he realized what kind of hornet nesting he was kicking (something similar had happened in the war of 1859: Victor Emmanuel of Sardinia had originally refused to countersign the cease fire agreed between the French and the Austrians after the battle of Solferino, wanting to continue the war on his own. When Cavour realized there was no way to change the king's mind he did resign. And was recalled just a few days later).

I'm just guessing, but I would not be surprised if the effect of a Prussian annexation of Bohemia were to be an alliance of Austria, France and Russia which would then proceed to cut down to size a Prussia which was clearly on a dangerous rampage and obviously did not care for European stability.
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
I think a more fruitful POD might be if Prussia was somehow able to take Bohemia and all of Silesia in the Seven Years War and managed to keep it. The impacts of this on the French Revolutionary Wars and Napoleon would be huge.

But as to this POD, I would say that it means Germany is even more powerful and rich at the time of unification, and it might mean that Britain comes to terms with a French alliance much earlier, as Germany would have industrial capacity that could challenge both of those nations.
 
I suppose it would help Germany in the short term, but probably not in the long term - Bismarck never wanted do antagonize Austria too much, or else he wouldn't have Austria as an ally, or worse, would have to worry about his southern flank in a future world war. Unless Bismarck ditches Austria in order to cozy up to the Russians, it will harm Germany's relations and power in Europe.
 
Incidentally there would have probably been consequences for the internal set up of the NGC and Second Reich.

Iirc Wilhelm I did not really want to annex Hanover, Hesse-Kassel and Nassau. He would have preferred Austrian and Saxon territory as he considered those to have been Prussia's main enemies. When Bismarck thwarted him on this, he settled for the other states as a second best. So if he gets Bohemia (and Saxon Lusatia?) those may well survive, though forced to join the NGC, and possibly having bits of territory snipped off to connect the Rhenish Provinces and Schleswig-Holstein with the rest of Prussia.
 
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