WI: Provisional Government in Russia ended war with Germany in 1917

Yes, it would probably prevent the Bolsheviks from taking over. Keeping millions of men in uniform and off the farms was really screwing with their whole food supply, since they weren't taking part in the harvests. It will also free up the rail lines, which was another bottleneck preventing food delivery into the cities. Food shortages were a major factor in discontent, especially in the cities. Solve that and extremism will be less of a problem. Also, the war was just plain unpopular. Common people did not like having their sons killed in a war that was increasingly seen as pointless.

However, the most conservative elements in Russian society will probably be opposed to this. By 1917, the Provo government will most likely have to give up Poland and Lithuania to the Germans, and possibly some kind of reparation payments as well. That kind of humiliation doesn't go down well with "honor and motherland" types and they will make all kinds of noise, though they most likely won't do anything about it.

The Constitutional Convention will be held sooner or later, and Russia will most likely be declared a Republic or Federation. The Party of Socialist Revolutionaries will most likely gain a solid majority of whatever elected bodies or offices they have. The PSR stood for land redistribution, which was the age-long dream of the peasants. I'm not sure what else the PSR would do, really. They had some Marxists in their ranks, but they were by no means the same thing as the Bolsheviks. I can't imagine they'd be worse though.
 
This might provoke a split in the provisional government between pro-war conservatives and opponents of the war.

Given how delicate the Kerensky government was, I would say this probably is a split it can't afford to have.
 
The Kerensky government would never recognize or cede any German partition of Russian lands. The military was essentially the backing for Kerensky, and in fact, the only reason the Whites lost, was Kerensky's refusal to give the military autonomy. If he hadn't ruined what he had Kornilov, they might've had a chance at a united white movement.
 
I think this leads to instability in Russia but the Bolsheviks don't take power.
Eventually there is a military dictatorship.
 
If Prince Lvov is the one who makes peace, then perhaps the Constitutional Democratic party might not get as marginalized as OTL.

Also, Germany probably won't send Lenin to Russia in the sealed train. He'll arrive later, and probably have less effect on events.

Also, does anyone have any idea how the Russian officer corps viewed the situation in early 1917? Surely they must have had some idea of how close to collapse their army was.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Which month did you have in mind ending the war?

Many senior leaders understood the futility of the war. The right leader could have found a way to make peace. A good negotiator could find face saving provisions to the treaty.

If early in the year, it also will profoundly change the war in the West by moving up the major German offensive to 1917.



However, the most conservative elements in Russian society will probably be opposed to this. By 1917, the Provo government will most likely have to give up Poland and Lithuania to the Germans, and possibly some kind of reparation payments as well. That kind of humiliation doesn't go down well with "honor and motherland" types and they will make all kinds of noise, though they most likely won't do anything about it.

A bit softer peace than you indicate. Germany wanted the Russians out of the war, so the terms offered were basically losing Poland and Lithuania with resumed trade. OTL B-L has many, many pages on the trade terms. A good Russian negotiator could probably get even better terms.
 

Cook

Banned
The Kerensky government would never recognize or cede any German partition of Russian lands.
Kerensky did sound out the British and French as to the possibility of Russia withdrawing from being an active combatant, along the same lines as Rumania had. They urged him to remain in at least long enough for United States forces to arrive in Europe in sufficient numbers to prevent defeat.

You probably wouldn’t have seen formal negotiations with the Central Powers, but Lenin and Trotsky’s period of ‘no war, no peace’ didn’t either and after a period of recovery, or a Central Powers collapse, Russia may have resumed fighting and regained its lost territory.

OTL B-L has many, many pages on the trade terms. A good Russian negotiator could probably get even better terms.
The problem is the Germans desperately needed the trade concessions and war reparations to pay off the enormous loans the war bonds sold by the government to pay for the war. Without them the victorious German empire would be bankrupt.

 

BlondieBC

Banned
he problem is the Germans desperately needed the trade concessions and war reparations to pay off the enormous loans the war bonds sold by the government to pay for the war. Without them the victorious German empire would be bankrupt.

Yes, they be in bad financial shape, but not bankrupt. Probably about the same as OTL UK, maybe a bit better. The odd benefit of the blockade is the Germans had not sold off their oversees assets like the UK did. They did not run up large unsecured debts like the UK.
 
Yes, they be in bad financial shape, but not bankrupt. Probably about the same as OTL UK, maybe a bit better. The odd benefit of the blockade is the Germans had not sold off their oversees assets like the UK did. They did not run up large unsecured debts like the UK.

unsecured debt only after the DOW of the us in 1917
 
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