Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
Would it butterfly away the October Revolution? What other effects would it have?
However, the most conservative elements in Russian society will probably be opposed to this. By 1917, the Provo government will most likely have to give up Poland and Lithuania to the Germans, and possibly some kind of reparation payments as well. That kind of humiliation doesn't go down well with "honor and motherland" types and they will make all kinds of noise, though they most likely won't do anything about it.
Kerensky did sound out the British and French as to the possibility of Russia withdrawing from being an active combatant, along the same lines as Rumania had. They urged him to remain in at least long enough for United States forces to arrive in Europe in sufficient numbers to prevent defeat.The Kerensky government would never recognize or cede any German partition of Russian lands.
The problem is the Germans desperately needed the trade concessions and war reparations to pay off the enormous loans the war bonds sold by the government to pay for the war. Without them the victorious German empire would be bankrupt.OTL B-L has many, many pages on the trade terms. A good Russian negotiator could probably get even better terms.
he problem is the Germans desperately needed the trade concessions and war reparations to pay off the enormous loans the war bonds sold by the government to pay for the war. Without them the victorious German empire would be bankrupt.
Yes, they be in bad financial shape, but not bankrupt. Probably about the same as OTL UK, maybe a bit better. The odd benefit of the blockade is the Germans had not sold off their oversees assets like the UK did. They did not run up large unsecured debts like the UK.