WI: Protestant victory in the Cologne War?

[GauchoBadger]

IOTL, the Cologne War of the 1580's was a major religiously-motivated conflict that occured in the region of the northern Rhine river basin in Germany. It sprung as the Archbishop-Elector of Cologne, Gebhard of Waldburg, married a protestant woman and then announced a plan to secularize the Electorate of Cologne and estabilish a dynasty. Catholic groups were offended by this, and requested support from the Pope, the Spanish Netherlands, and the Bavarians, triggering war. IOTL, it would eventually be a war that Gebhard would lose, but what if it had gone the other way? Say, with a PoD in Gebhard's ally, the Elector Palatine Louis VI living a bit longer, or through more substantial French, Dutch, or English support.
What are the overall effects on European history, the wars of the Reformation, etc.? Could the new Cologne principality end up unifying the Rhineland?
How does Bavaria's story develop if there's a more firmly Protestant Wittelsbach branch in the Palatinate?
What about the Rhine as a whole? Can the Counter-Reformation there end up failing?

 

[pompejus]

I know nothing about this war, so I can't say anything about likelyhood or POD to make this happen. I do know that a protestent Cologne might have a ajor influence on the Dutch revolt. It might be enough to make Upper Gueldres and Overmaas (think Dutch Limburg) Dutch after the war for example. A protestant Cologne would be an enourmous boon for the Dutch Republic. Cologne was a major ally of the French in the year of disaster for example. A protestant Cologne would most likely be a Dutch ally, especialy if it would cause a protestant upper Rhineland.

 

[Jared]

A Protestant Cologne would seriously upset the religious balance within the HRE. In OTL, the three spiritual electors were almost always Catholic (except for Cologne having two brief Protestant interludes, this being the second).

Throwing that out of balance will encourage the Catholic factions to find another way to restore it. But this would be awkward given that creating new Electors wasn't yet really a thing, and especially spiritual electors. But they will be looking for a way to amend that.

 

[GauchoBadger]

A Protestant Cologne would seriously upset the religious balance within the HRE. In OTL, the three spiritual electors were almost always Catholic (except for Cologne having two brief Protestant interludes, this being the second).

Throwing that out of balance will encourage the Catholic factions to find another way to restore it. But this would be awkward given that creating new Electors wasn't yet really a thing, and especially spiritual electors. But they will be looking for a way to amend that.

Could this lead to a few situations in which a Protestant is elected as Holy Roman Emperor?