WI: Prolonged Khrushchev Thaw?

There are several difficulties to overcome.

1) You need Khruschev to stay in power longer since the reforms are dependent on him.

2) The reforms were causing problems because criticism of Communism within the Soviet Bloc were increasing - there is only so far you can go without a backlash/repression to set in.

First, let's say Francis Gary Power's U2 is never shot down. The Four Power Paris Summit is held in May 1960 and is a great success. I don't know how success should be defined in regards to Berlin and Germany, but the end result is significant decline in tensions and agreement for peaceful coexistence.

Khruschev takes home a huge foreign policy achievement that shores up his position in Moscow.

Nixon is elected President in 1960 and continues Eisenhower's policies. Khruschev has met Nixon and feels he understands him. The two continue to work together. There is no Cuban missile crisis.

As a result of Khruschev's handling of foreign policy, he remains in power after October 1964. Kosygin's economic reforms are implemented ITTL, but under Khruschev's leadership. When the plan runs into problem, support from Khruschev is sufficient to keep the reforms ongoing and not scaled back until the problems are worked out.

Eventually I think Khruschev gets removed. He can only reform so much without Communism collapsing, and the increasing conflict in Vietnam will present problems to his foreign policy successes. If Khruschev can convince the North Vietnamese to not expand the war and accept partition, it may keep his foreign policy alive. However, I think most likely Mao Zedong will stop Khruschev from conceding too much to the West by attacking him from the left.

Unless the Sino-Soviet Split completely derails the Cold War as we know it, the Soviets will remain rivals with the US. It is interesting to speculate that increased cooperation between the US and USSR coming out of the Paris Peace Talks mean the two powers cooperate in a joint strike against the Chinese nuclear program. If that happens, the Vietnam conflict might stay constrained, and the US-USSR cooperation continue for some time as the two work together to contain China.

Likely he is ousted after a 1968 Prague Spring scenario. I think he's gone sometime between 1969-1972. Since Khruschev dies IOTL in 1971, he may die just before that happens, or manages a transition of power right before his death.

At best, you get around 4-8 more years, but there will likely be lots of interesting butterflies.
 
How would Krushchev respond to the Prague Spring? Would he support it or suppress it, and if he supports it what would be the consequences for the wider Communist bloc?
 
First, let's say Francis Gary Power's U2 is never shot down. The Four Power Paris Summit is held in May 1960 and is a great success.
From the book Ike's Bluff, Richard Bissell did not tell Eisenhower about a previous close call! He basically wanted the U2 program to keep rolling and did not trust the president's judgment.

So, in a POD, he decides he has to tell Eisenhower, misgivings about his judgment or not.
 
Prague Spring? The invasion only happened because Brezhnev and the existing hardliner clique IOTL refused to accept the reforms happening within Dubcek's Czechoslovakia. With Khrushchev as leader by 1968, the Prague Spring is accepted by Khrushchev, but Dubcek would scale back the too anti-Soviet sentiment to be able to receive support from Khrushchev.

Khrushchev would support reform anywhere. He has power over Ulbricht. He has power over Gomulka (Gomulka feared a Soviet invasion so he might soften his stance). Dubcek's an ally in this case. Ceausescu with enough butterflies might not go to China and North Korea in this TL (assuming China's history mostly goes the same until 1976) and might still be the moderate person he was before 1971, and Zhivkov would be forced to reform too. Even the Stalinist Tsedenbal would be forced to reform (since Mongolia was the USSR's lapdog since 1921).

I suggest you guys take a look at my TL, it very much deals with this, and it also has its own massive butterflies. With the USSR's health status better, Khrushchev's tenure would be advanced by 15 years, to be exact. Remember depression came to Khrushchev after he was ousted, and depression really takes a massive toll on a person. Yes, it is stressful to handle such a large country, but depression takes more of a toll on a person. In my TL, he is in power until 1975.
 
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Now, that is interesting. As stressful as managing a large country, depression even more of a toll.

Sometime I'd like to see a POD where modern anti-depressants such as Zoloft and Wellbutrin come on line several decades earlier. As I've read, it's still trial and error in a respectful way, and takes a good 4 weeks plus to tell. And apparently, if someone is going to discontinue the medication, even one which doesn't seem to be working, it's often better to phase down in steps.

Reminds us we're all human. maybe if political and economic systems were a little more loosey-goosey?
 
So, if there is a thaw,

maybe instead of competing with espionage and "military aid" and supporting rebel armies (Soviets, usually) and propping up dictatorships (Americans, usually),

maybe 70% just by accident, we get a situation where the two superpowers compete on who can do a better job on genuine trade and development with the Third World.

Imagine 50 years of building up previously poor countries. The trade partners we could have. The positive examples of tax policy, a functional EPA, regulation of banks which is both streamlined and effective, and kind of getting it all right.

===============

And for a real flight of fancy, the two main economic systems, and then envision a third system which very much still a minority but has things appealing about itself.
 
How you stop Khrushchev's impulsiveness and bluster from getting the better of him, I still think you would be underestimating just how much Khrushchev would be willing to give. There's also more problems with China he would have to deal with regardless, can he afford to thaw or risk losing the second world to China.
 
Maybe because of the greater reformist movement in the communist states because of Khrushchev staying in power for longer, the reformists under Liu Shaoqi, Zhou Enlai, and Deng Xiaoping would get more impetus to oust Mao, hence China and the USSR does not split. Well, yes, a rivalry would still exist, but not to the extent where they nearly went to war with each other in 1969, for example.
 
Maybe because of the greater reformist movement in the communist states because of Khrushchev staying in power for longer, the reformists under Liu Shaoqi, Zhou Enlai, and Deng Xiaoping would get more impetus to oust Mao, hence China and the USSR does not split. Well, yes, a rivalry would still exist, but not to the extent where they nearly went to war with each other in 1969, for example.

That's not gonna happen at all, The Sino-Split was a much a geo-political game as it was an ideological rivalry, the moment Khruschev denounces Stalin, we are gonna see things slide. True you might not see a near war, you are still gonna see the USSR and China jockey for influence, with Vietnam being a major battle ground between the two if 1954 goes the same way. Although there was prior antagonism between the Chinese Communists and even Stalin.

The only way you can get possible get a U.S Soviet thaw is if by act of the god the U.S does a 180 on it's willing to look at the second world. You still have the One China Policy and the recent debacle in Korean or Cuba depending on when. I'd say the willingness of any American President to do something that might seem "soft" on Communism is unlikely.
 
Prague Spring? The invasion only happened because Brezhnev and the existing hardliner clique IOTL refused to accept the reforms happening within Dubcek's Czechoslovakia. With Khrushchev as leader by 1968, the Prague Spring is accepted by Khrushchev, but Dubcek would scale back the too anti-Soviet sentiment to be able to receive support from Khrushchev.

Khrushchev would support reform anywhere. He has power over Ulbricht. He has power over Gomulka (Gomulka feared a Soviet invasion so he might soften his stance). Dubcek's an ally in this case. Ceausescu with enough butterflies might not go to China and North Korea in this TL (assuming China's history mostly goes the same until 1976) and might still be the moderate person he was before 1971, and Zhivkov would be forced to reform too. Even the Stalinist Tsedenbal would be forced to reform (since Mongolia was the USSR's lapdog since 1921).

I suggest you guys take a look at my TL, it very much deals with this, and it also has its own massive butterflies. With the USSR's health status better, Khrushchev's tenure would be advanced by 15 years, to be exact. Remember depression came to Khrushchev after he was ousted, and depression really takes a massive toll on a person. Yes, it is stressful to handle such a large country, but depression takes more of a toll on a person. In my TL, he is in power until 1975.

You mean like he accepted the reforms in Hungary?

Stick a link to your TL in your sig.
 
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