WI Progressive Conservatives Official Opposition 1993

What if the PCs in Canada did better in the 1993 election, not winning but the Official opposition to Chretien's Liberal majority? What would have happened as a result? Could the PCs survive? When could they return to power? What if?
 
Very difficult. It's possible under Campbell considering she was leading at the beginning. Still, you have to avoid all those stumbles, the face ad, the poor debates. It's tough. If you have Charest as leader you may not have the Campbellmania that she had at the beginning, but in the long term the PCs would be more competitive in Quebec against the Grits and the Bloc. Charest would most likely have defeated Chretien in the debates.

But having Charest damages the Tories in the West and possibly opens the door for further Reform gains. 1993 was going to be a bad year whoever was leader. If you have Campbell you lose Quebec, but if you have Charest you could lose the West.

In my opinion Charest had the better chance of keeping Official Opposition. Returning to power is another thing entirely since he'd have to kill Manning and Duceppe. Official party status and financial support helps but doesn't guarantee that. Still if Charest was Leader of the Opposition during the 1994 Referendum he might gain some momentum, some star status, but it's hard to say.
 
If it's really close between PCs and reform, or PCs just behind BQ in terms of seats, then what would happen? Would the PCs resurge, or would Reform triumph?
 
If it's really close between PCs and reform, or PCs just behind BQ in terms of seats, then what would happen? Would the PCs resurge, or would Reform triumph?

I and many others would say yes, an equal number would say no to possible PC resurgence. It's become almost a hallmark of Canadian political TLs, but that might be based more in hope than anything else. There are a thousand potential ways under a large number of potential leaders, so who knows. If Charest was leader he'd have certainly given Duceppe a run for his money.

If the Tories maintain their base of support in Atlantic Canada, parts of Quebec, Ontario, if they survive the trauma of 1993, than there's a chance. Anything less than Official Opposition and they are potentially in deep trouble for the next few elections.
 
Any exact results of the election, per seat, or a working simulator than can incorporate all the election elements available?

Also, what do you think would happen in this TL. Would Chretien be relegated to a minority government, and could the PCs be back in power before 2000 or soon after?
 
Assuming Chretien's first term proceeds largely the same as it did in real life, it honestly wouldn't be inconceivable to see the Liberals lose in 1997.
 
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