WI: Privatized NASA

[DStecks]

I brought this up in the TL Ideas you lack the wherewithal to execute thread, but it's gotten a decent response so I'm posting it here.

After the Apollo 13 disaster ends in the deaths of the astronauts aboard, President Nixon ends the Apollo Program and, more significantly, makes the decision to privatize NASA, its goal of winning the space race complete. NASA becomes the American Aerospace Corporation (Amaero for short).

What follows is how I would see the TL going, but you don't have to assume any of it is canon.

Amaero hires Arthur C. Clarke as head of research and development, who proposes a network of commercialized communications satellites. Amaero hits on the idea of satellite phones, and they quickly become ubiquitous in a world where cellular phone technology won't be commercially viable before the 1990's. Amaero becomes one of the biggest companies in America, buying up tech startups like Microsoft to make its satellites better.

Ultimately, techs like GPS, satellite tv, and even the internet show up commercially much sooner than OTL, but one company has a monopoly on them. This is where it starts getting a little cyberpunk. GPS is a paid subscription service. Internet anonymity is an oxymoron, and piracy is basically impossible, due to Amaero monitoring all the data sent over the Satnet (TTL word for internet). The FCC effectively bans internet porn. Wikileaks is not a thing. Advertising is absolutely ubiquitous and impossible to opt out of without a government non-profit organization license. Cellular phone technology is suppressed due to the threat it poses to satphones, which do not work indoors without a wi-fi router.

In addition, we know basically nothing about the outer solar system, since all those probes were purely scientific in nature, something the for-profit Amaero has no purpose for. The Soviets still send missions into space, but their program was hugely scaled back after NASA was sold off. Meanwhile, the US military forms a small Space Corps, which launches satellites out of the New Mexico desert using older NASA launch vehicle designs.

Eventually I want to turn this into a fully-fledged narrative, but for now I'm occupied with Jesus Walks. This thread will be for brainstorming the TL.

 

[Some Bloke]

One small step for a man, one giant leap for McDonalds.

 

[Color-Copycat]

I don't mean to slight this interesting premise, but I'm sort of amused at how a speculative aerospace development leads to a porn-less internet.

 

[Faeelin]

Given that privatization didn't relaly kick into high gear until the 1980s, I'm not sure why or how Nixon would get approval to sell off part of America's military industrial complex.

 

[Some Bloke]

Space Corps?!

Holy Smeg!

 

[Archibald]

There's a bitter irony in this TL.

NASA is no longer there, and the space shuttle is dead. Is this is the end of affordable space transportation ? No !
In order for satellite phones to work, GEO is impossible - too much delay with the signal.
So one need Low Earth satellite. Alas, closer from Earth area covered takes a major hit.
From GEO three satellites cover a whole hemisphere.
From LEO to cover an hemisphere one needs from 66 to 800 satellites.
Which is a killer app which will make space transportation affordable. OTL that was NASA goal when developing the space shuttle !
In the 90's the satellite constellation (aborted) boom triggered a lot of Reusable Launch Vehicle programs - Kistler K-1, Rocketplane Pathfinder, Roton, X-33, Beal BA-2.

Dstecks- if you need help feel free to PM me. I did a lot of research for my own space TLs.

On the other thread you asked about Europe space program. As of 1973 it was in the process of a very difficult transition - the issue was that NASA shuttle plans (Spacelab) were at the core of the transition that led to ESA.
Spacelab (Germany - USA) + Ariane (France) + Marot (British comsats) - that was the package.
God know where Europe space program may go without NASA.

 

[e of pi]

What difference would privatizing NASA make compared to the private companies (Lockheed, McDonnell, Douglass, Boeing, Grumman, North American Rockwell, Convair, Martin and more) that IOTL acted as contractors to NASA and pursued the commercial applications of space IOTL. Even if NASA gets turned into a single firm, it'd still be contracting with those firms as suppliers, which means Amaero is really just another aerospace firm, except one that doesn't actually make anything itself. I'd say it's bankrupt within five years.

 

[neopeius]

Commsats only happened in the 60s because of government investment. They weren't profitable until the 80s (IIRC).

So making space pay for it's own damned self in 1970 basically kills the space program almost completely.

 

[DStecks]

I don't mean to slight this interesting premise, but I'm sort of amused at how a speculative aerospace development leads to a porn-less internet.

Saying that the FCC would ban it is probably stupid. That said, there are lots of other ways a private internet would curtail the amount of porn on it.

First of all, lack of anonymity is an issue. Second, free content hosting sites would likely not exist in a world where 1 company has a monopoly on all bandwidth. They can charge a premium for it, and it's possible that ads don't even exist as a form of revenue if Amaero is already running ads over all websites. Third, being owned by a single American company makes the internet subject to American law, meaning that the FCC could have sway over the content of the net that it lacks in real life.

Given that privatization didn't relaly kick into high gear until the 1980s, I'm not sure why or how Nixon would get approval to sell off part of America's military industrial complex.

NASA wasn't considered part of the military industrial complex. In fact, Nixon, as well as most of America for that matter, saw it as a giant money hole. While Nixon returning NASA to the military, or even shutting it down might be more likely, selling it off makes for a better story.

Dstecks- if you need help feel free to PM me. I did a lot of research for my own space TLs.

Thanks, I'll remember that.

On the other thread you asked about Europe space program. As of 1973 it was in the process of a very difficult transition - the issue was that NASA shuttle plans (Spacelab) were at the core of the transition that led to ESA.
Spacelab (Germany - USA) + Ariane (France) + Marot (British comsats) - that was the package.
God know where Europe space program may go without NASA.

Interesting. Do you think a partnership with the Russian program could have replaced NASA? Post 1990, obviously.

What difference would privatizing NASA make compared to the private companies (Lockheed, McDonnell, Douglass, Boeing, Grumman, North American Rockwell, Convair, Martin and more) that IOTL acted as contractors to NASA and pursued the commercial applications of space IOTL. Even if NASA gets turned into a single firm, it'd still be contracting with those firms as suppliers, which means Amaero is really just another aerospace firm, except one that doesn't actually make anything itself. I'd say it's bankrupt within five years.

Amaero has to buy components from those companies, but they have something none of them have: Launch capabilities. In the early days, before the satnet is established, Amaero would make money by running frequent launches of cheap rockets, and sell payload space on them to the highest bidder. That bridges the gap to GPS and Satphones.

 

[MattII]

Ultimately, techs like GPS, satellite tv, and even the internet show up commercially much sooner than OTL, but one company has a monopoly on them. This is where it starts getting a little cyberpunk. GPS is a paid subscription service. Internet anonymity is an oxymoron, and piracy is basically impossible, due to Amaero monitoring all the data sent over the Satnet (TTL word for internet). The FCC effectively bans internet porn. Wikileaks is not a thing. Advertising is absolutely ubiquitous and impossible to opt out of without a government non-profit organization license. Cellular phone technology is suppressed due to the threat it poses to satphones, which do not work indoors without a wi-fi router.

Uh, you know the internet doesn't go via satellites right? Also, how were you planning to suppress cellphone technology? Governments don't like people clamping down on new and useful technologies unless there's something in it for them, and Amaero has nothing to offer them. Oh, and the military will nationalise the GPS network as soon as they can, and if Amaero doesn't want to sell, well too bad, he'll be forced to one way or another.

 

[DStecks]

Uh, you know the internet doesn't go via satellites right?

OTL internet doesn't. The Satnet internet I'm talking about would be significantly different from the OTL Arpanet-derived web. Of course, this is just an idea I've had, not an integral part of the TL.

Also, how were you planning to suppress cellphone technology?

Unsuccessfully. They'll sit on the patent for as long as they can, so the satphone infrastructure can be put in place. Cellphones would eventually be made, but it might take a while for them to be widely adopted.

Oh, and the military will nationalise the GPS network as soon as they can, and if Amaero doesn't want to sell, well too bad, he'll be forced to one way or another.

I don't believe that the military can simply seize assets from private companies.

 

[e of pi]

Amaero has to buy components from those companies, but they have something none of them have: Launch capabilities. In the early days, before the satnet is established, Amaero would make money by running frequent launches of cheap rockets, and sell payload space on them to the highest bidder. That bridges the gap to GPS and Satphones.

Boeing built the Saturn V first stage, Chrystler built the first stage of the Saturn 1B. Douglass built the SIVB used as a second stage on the Saturn 1B and the third stage of the Saturn V. The SII second stage of the Saturn V was North American. Martin made the entire Titan rocket, supplying it complete to both the Air Force and NASA. NASA doesn't have launch capability, it pays companies to have it for them. Amaero isn't offering anything those companies don't already have.

 

[Archibald]

In order to kill cellphones one has to kill GSM - derailing the process should not be too difficult.
OTL no-one believed GSM could work (or at least, develop as fast as it developed), hence the emphasis on satellite phones.

OTL the starting point for satphone constellations was June 1990 - when Motorola announced Iridium. Within five years or so however, GSM and land-based relays triumphed.

As for Nixon he really considered manned spaceflight altogether, so the POD sounds good.
As for the robotic probes, JPL and Bruce Murray also made a big mess.
NASA post-Apollo hangover was extremely violent.
Really, wrecking NASA in the 70's is pretty easy.
Drew did it in Rumsfeldia - in 1981 Rumsfeld shut down NASA, damn him.

 

[DStecks]

Boeing built the Saturn V first stage, Chrystler built the first stage of the Saturn 1B. Douglass built the SIVB used as a second stage on the Saturn 1B and the third stage of the Saturn V. The SII second stage of the Saturn V was North American. Martin made the entire Titan rocket, supplying it complete to both the Air Force and NASA. NASA doesn't have launch capability, it pays companies to have it for them. Amaero isn't offering anything those companies don't already have.

Your argument is literally nonsense. Restaurants do not go out of business because farms already make the ingredients. Those companies are manufacturers, not private space agencies. Maybe you could argue that Martin could have launch capabilities, but that is not what they do. None of these companies are interested in launch capabilities because they don't send things in to space, they manufacture things.

 

[MattII]

OTL internet doesn't. The Satnet internet I'm talking about would be significantly different from the OTL Arpanet-derived web. Of course, this is just an idea I've had, not an integral part of the TL.

The Network's not going to be much bigger than Bell's MTS network.

Unsuccessfully. They'll sit on the patent for as long as they can, so the satphone infrastructure can be put in place. Cellphones would eventually be made, but it might take a while for them to be widely adopted.

Sit on the patent for what? Bell came up with the radio-telephone in 1946, you really think they're going to give up that to someone else?

I don't believe that the military can simply seize assets from private companies.

They can't, but the government can, and in 1970s USA, the military is a big force in government.

In order to kill cellphones one has to kill GSM - derailing the process should not be too difficult.
OTL no-one believed GSM could work (or at least, develop as fast as it developed), hence the emphasis on satellite phones.

No, to really kill cellphones you have to shut down Motorola prior to 1973, else you're getting at least 'the brick'.

Your argument is literally nonsense. Restaurants do not go out of business because farms already make the ingredients. Those companies are manufacturers, not private space agencies. Maybe you could argue that Martin could have launch capabilities, but that is not what they do. None of these companies are interested in launch capabilities because they don't send things in to space, they manufacture things.

Sorry, how were you proposing to allow Amaero to be the only one to buy these products again?

 

[DStecks]

Sorry, how were you proposing to allow Amaero to be the only one to buy these products again?

I never said anything like that. Other private space agencies might spring up, but Amaero has the edge in that it already has Cape Canaveral and experienced personnel. Furthermore, where are these private companies getting the funds to buy these components? A start-up wouldn't be able to afford them, and spaceflight is a risky thing for an existing company to expand into.

Amaero can sell payload space on future flights because it has a proven track record. Furthermore, once it gets a stable launch schedule set up, costs go down thanks to economies of scale. This was the idea behind the Shuttle, but it failed there because the Shuttle had to be human-rated and reusable. Amaero satellite launch rockets would be cheap and expendable.

 

[MattII]

The Cold War is going strong, Amaero will either have to be a total lackey to the government, or the military will start pouring money into someone else and leave Amaero to rot, if they don't dismember the old NASA for the parts. At the best, Amaero can offer a cut in the market to certain big communications companies.

 

[Archibald]

It is not difficult to ruin NASA in the 70's - one step after another.

Manned spaceflight
- a lethal Apollo 13 (April 1970)
- the shuttle canned in October 1971 (OTL it had a very close call)
- Skylab a wreck after launch (May 1973)
End result: Kennedy, Johnson, Marshall dead.

Planetary exploration (JPL)
Not too difficult. Jet Propulsion Laboratory well-respected, 20 years boss William Pickering resigned in 1976. His successor Bruce Murray fucked-up planetary exploration by seeking only $1 billion+ missions like Viking and Voyager.
Just because public opinion was impressed by Viking and Voyager. Murray forgot cost might be an obstacle for Congress.
His program for the 80's: Galileo ($1 billion) Cassini ($2 billion) VOIR Magellan (another billion) Mars sample return ($5 billion) solar sail or electric propulsion to Halley comet (new tech, more billions)
Five years in Murray reign, in 1981 planetary exploration was on the brink of cancellation. Reagan OMB cost cutter (Stockman) seriously considered it.
End result: JPL would be transfered to the military !

Remote sensing and astronomy (Goddard)
Main project was Hubble, and in 1975 the House of representatives simply zeroed-out the budget. Only a violent protest from the scientists saved Hubble.
as for remote sensing - Landsat - in the 80's Reagan tried to transfer that to the private sector, a disaster. Plus Landsat 4 and 6 failed.
end result: Goddard lost two key programs.

Aeronautics (Langley, Ames, Lewis, Dryden)
Always the poor child, the one raided for money when others centers have their program costs ballooning.

With manned flight, JPL, Hubble and Landsat all fucked-up, and aeronautics starved - NASA is pretty much dead on arrival. All based on OTL events (combined into a perfect storm, admittedly)

No really, ruinning NASA in the 70's is pretty easy.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

I never said anything like that. Other private space agencies might spring up, but Amaero has the edge in that it already has Cape Canaveral and experienced personnel. Furthermore, where are these private companies getting the funds to buy these components? A start-up wouldn't be able to afford them, and spaceflight is a risky thing for an existing company to expand into.

Amaero can sell payload space on future flights because it has a proven track record. Furthermore, once it gets a stable launch schedule set up, costs go down thanks to economies of scale. This was the idea behind the Shuttle, but it failed there because the Shuttle had to be human-rated and reusable. Amaero satellite launch rockets would be cheap and expendable.

??? but who on earth would pay? There just isn't enough launch business to justify a NASA like organization. Moreover, it would have to buy all its rockets.

No. If the space business were privatized, it would be by having Douglas, Martin or possibly Boeing buying the useful bits of NASA, and/or creating something like OTL's United Launch Alliance.

A private NASA is totally inviable as a company. The economics aren't there.

 

[DStecks]

??? but who on earth would pay?

Other countries that want their own satellites but don't want to spend money developing a space program? Universities wanting to do research on space? Rich weirdos with vanity projects?

I don't know if any of this would be enough to support a privatized NASA, I'm just throwing possibilities out there.