WI:Prime Minister Jean Chrétien is Killed by André Dallaire-November 5th,1995

Not sure if this has come up before, but I did a search and nothing came up.

The event itself is rather carzy, so I'll let Wikipedia explain it for me...

At 02:10 UTC−5 on November 5, Dallaire arrived outside 24 Sussex Drive and spent the next 20 minutes throwing stones onto the grounds and waving at security cameras while carrying a Pocket knife alternately described as three or five inches in length.

He then climbed the fence and strode over to the house, where he smashed a glass door and entered, wandering around the basement and ground floor for 30 minutes before heading to the Chrétiens' bedroom where he was confronted by Chrétien's wife, Aline as he was pulling on his gloves.[2]

Aline hurried back into the bedroom and locked the door, rousing Chrétien who initially dismissed her story as "just a dream", while she dialed the RCMP officers stationed outside the house.

Stories diverged whether Jean or Aline Chrétien brandished an Inuit stone sculpture of a loon in case Dallaire broke through the door.

Dallaire did not attempt to break down the door, and waited for the police to arrive. Controversially, it took seven minutes for the police to respond to Aline's desperate call about an intruder trying to kill the Prime Minister, in part because the first officer to respond had forgotten his key to the residence,[1] because the officers had decided to surround the house to prevent escape before entering it to ensure the Prime Minister's safety, and because the officer who answered the frantic telephone call first called his supervisor at the nearby Rideau Hall to ask what he should do.[3]

Alright, so let's say things get a little more crazy, and Dallaire ends up killing Chrétien.

What is the reaction in the country when the news spreads? What actions would be taken by parliament following his death? Who would become the new Prime Minister? What effect would this have coming so soon after the 1995 referendum? Overall, what are the long-term and short-term impacts on Canada?
 
The referendum was already over with by November 5th. Although it could be interesting if the referendum won, and butterflies lead to Chretien being killed just a week later.
 
Massive security upgrade. In the interim, Sheila Copps is sworn in as Acting Prime Minister until the Liberal Party chooses a permanent successor. Free for all between Martin, Tobin and Manley with Martin probably winning. Interestingly, the "national unity reserve fund" originally created by Brian Mulroney in 1992 expires in 1996, and creaeting a new one requires both Martin's and the Finance Minister's (probably Manley) signature. It doesn't get signed. Result? NO ADSCAM, with all the ensuing butterflies. Hell, you could still have the Liberals in power today.
 
Massive security upgrade. In the interim, Sheila Copps is sworn in as Acting Prime Minister until the Liberal Party chooses a permanent successor. Free for all between Martin, Tobin and Manley with Martin probably winning. Interestingly, the "national unity reserve fund" originally created by Brian Mulroney in 1992 expires in 1996, and creaeting a new one requires both Martin's and the Finance Minister's (probably Manley) signature. It doesn't get signed. Result? NO ADSCAM, with all the ensuing butterflies. Hell, you could still have the Liberals in power today.

Agreed...

That being said I don't see such events affecting the eventual formation of the Conservative Party under Harper. Given enough distance from the POD and you could have a Conservative government somewhere down the line.

I'd also wager that the Quebec separatist movement will take a hit, especially if Dallaire survives the immediate aftermath and stands trial.
 
Agreed...

That being said I don't see such events affecting the eventual formation of the Conservative Party under Harper. Given enough distance from the POD and you could have a Conservative government somewhere down the line.

I'd also wager that the Quebec separatist movement will take a hit, especially if Dallaire survives the immediate aftermath and stands trial.

Agreed on both counts. Liberals will win in the 190s at the next election, which is probably held in the fall of '97. Since Chretien dies, the factions dissolve and no Liberal civil war. Martin stays as long as he wants, with Manley or Tobin waiting in the wings. But without Adscam, Grits probably remain the dominant party in Quebec. In 2000 IOTL they won 38 seats to the Bloc's 36, ITTL '01 or '02 that's probably somewhere in the 40s.

Tories: Probably win in 2006/7, simply due to incumbency fatigue.
 
Anyone have any thoughts on what the immediate reaction to Chrétien's death would be? What about how he would be remembered today?
 
Anyone have any thoughts on what the immediate reaction to Chrétien's death would be? What about how he would be remembered today?

Remembered as a good PM, and potentially the PC revival in Atlantic Canada due to the UI slashing (Charest ran to the Liberals' left that year) is smaller as part of the sympathy wave come fall 1997. Most of the credit for restoring fiscal sanity goes to Paul Martin and John Manley- this is when the budget axe was swinging hardest, in Chretien's first term.
 
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