WI: Prevention of the Break-up of Yugoslavia by looking back to WW2, and more

[Kapellan23]

However, I am willing to hear out what exactly makes you believe that a further centralized Kingdom of Yugoslavia would've had a better chance at survival compared to a more liberal Communist Yugoslavia, perhaps even in the form of a counter-thread! I did say I wanted to get a discussion going!

Good. As the 20th century has shown us, the formation of national republics in a state with a federal structure is the reason for further separatism(in the USSR for national minorities that never had their own separate language and state). As an example: the current situation in Catalonia.
If Tito was a more independent figure and did not take this step, then Yugoslavia would continue to exist. If there was no foreign invasion, it would have been dismantled, like the USSR.
A centralized unitary state cannot be ruined in the same way, as national minorities will not have their own elite and state.

 

[Changundramon]

Great thread. I loathe the take of people like Robert Kagan on pretty much every single issue ever, and that includes his largely successful peddling of the remarkably lazy idea in Balkan Ghosts that violence like that in Yugoslavia was the inevitable result of "ancient hatreds", having nothing to do with well, the actual politics of the actually existing state called Yugoslavia.

The hatred was not ancient- that was the problem. Time heals wounds, and the wounds of the 1. Yugoslavia and WW2 definitely could not have healed fast enogh to let a second Yugoslavia survive easily. They haven't healed today, even.
I'm a Croat, and I can say our relationship with Hungarians is cordial when it comes to ethnic matters. Why? The witnesses of the worst hatred have passed away. A general support of the defensive war effort by the Hungarian minority also helped.

Relationship with Serbs? That'll take 50-60 years of no wars to normalize. At least.

 

[Changundramon]

Centralized states aren't immune to collapse just because they keep minorities down. Expansionist neighbors can always find ways to exploit the ethnic strife. In the case of Royal Yugoslavia, they did. Italy and Hungaria funded the Ustaše to destabilize the kingdom. Worked like a charm. And even the majority of Croats had little desire to save a country that had been oppressive to them in recent times. Germans could walk through Croatia- nobody cared to stop them on their way to Belgrade.

So, a II. Yugoslavia that wants to survive must either be militarily stronger than all of its neighbors combined (ASB), or make sure all the people in it like being part of a common cause. Tricky with national identities already having formed a century ago.

 

[fasquardon]

The actual folks I've spoken to from what was Yugoslavia (Macedonians, Croats, Bosniaks and Serbs) have told me that the wounds had healed. There may have been a scar, but to them before it fell apart, it was as relevant as the wars between England and Scotland are to people in the UK.

Also, from what I know about the economy side of Yugoslavia, the way the economy was federalized was a key part of what drove the republics towards civil war, since each region was mis-spending its resources and blaming the other regions for why things didn't work. Really, Yugoslavia needed to concentrate its resources developing Slovenia and to a lesser extent Croatia and then taxing those regions to build schools, hospitals, roads and libraries in the rest of the country (and in the long run that would bring the other republics up to the point they could be intensively developed once Slovenia and northern Croatia were maxed out). Instead they were building factories in the middle of no-where in Kosovo with no roads connecting them to anything and no trained workforce to operate them.

Since the Belgrade area is number 3 on the list of "good places to intensively develop into the engine of Yugoslavia", an economically centralized state where Belgrade and its environs received the most investment and paid for the schools and infrastructure of the other republics would, while not ideal, be better than the OTL approach.

I do think some amount of political federalization would also be beneficial for Yugoslavia, it is a matter of the right sort of federalism, rather than whether federalism is better or worse than centralism... Though centralism could well have worked better than the OTL form of federalism.

fasquardon

 

[Damian0358]

The actual folks I've spoken to from what was Yugoslavia (Macedonians, Croats, Bosniaks and Serbs) have told me that the wounds had healed. There may have been a scar, but to them before it fell apart, it was as relevant as the wars between England and Scotland are to people in the UK.

The hatred was not ancient- that was the problem. Time heals wounds, and the wounds of the 1. Yugoslavia and WW2 definitely could not have healed fast enogh to let a second Yugoslavia survive easily. They haven't healed today, even.
I'm a Croat, and I can say our relationship with Hungarians is cordial when it comes to ethnic matters. Why? The witnesses of the worst hatred have passed away. A general support of the defensive war effort by the Hungarian minority also helped.

Relationship with Serbs? That'll take 50-60 years of no wars to normalize. At least.

So, a II. Yugoslavia that wants to survive must either be militarily stronger than all of its neighbors combined (ASB), or make sure all the people in it like being part of a common cause. Tricky with national identities already having formed a century ago.

Time does heal wounds, but you can't just leave them to heal by themselves - you have to treat them too, and that requires addressing them. It's the entire point to the whole concept of a "Decade of Brotherhood" born out of the necessity of addressing the wounds following Ustaše-sympathizing terrorism that I've proposed in this very thread.

Heck, even in a scenario where a more liberal Communist Yugoslavia did survive and reform into the Democratic Confederate Republic of Yugoslavia, I could imagine what sort of impact the current era of the internet would have on the country, if we have modern examples of foreign entities fueling conflict in opposing states by relying on their existing divisions, resulting in a time where Yugoslavia stands still, but the politicians within use the growing frustrated nationalism to their advantage to obtain higher political positions (though never to the point of 'true' division because they realize how fucked they would be in the 21st century as individual states), a true flawed social democracy. And as you said, it would take many years to normalize relations (assuming no escalations in the meantime ala OTL), since even with your 'guesstimate', 60 years at minimum is about 2005.

Your point on the people in the country liking the common cause they share is a valid one, even with the trickiness in mind, since a more liberal Communist Yugoslavia could theoretically attempt to find the balance of "finding the common cause everyone likes" and "ensuring everyone has their own individual needs satisfied and not threatened". Really, the only hard bit at that point becomes Kosovo and Metochia, because even with Ranković gone and the region in much better shape than in OTL, we would still have the wishes of Albanian nationalists, however weakened they may be TTL, not just because of the wish to have all Albanian speaking territories united under one, but also because Prizren (through the League of Prizren) made Kosovo an important area in regards to the emergence of Albanian nationalism (especially after the majority expulsion of Muslim Albanians from the Toplica and Niš regions in 1877/78). Making sure to also mention the western part of North Macedonia, since this is Yugoslavia.

Also, from what I know about the economy side of Yugoslavia, the way the economy was federalized was a key part of what drove the republics towards civil war, since each region was mis-spending its resources and blaming the other regions for why things didn't work. Really, Yugoslavia needed to concentrate its resources developing Slovenia and to a lesser extent Croatia and then taxing those regions to build schools, hospitals, roads and libraries in the rest of the country (and in the long run that would bring the other republics up to the point they could be intensively developed once Slovenia and northern Croatia were maxed out). Instead they were building factories in the middle of no-where in Kosovo with no roads connecting them to anything and no trained workforce to operate them.

Since the Belgrade area is number 3 on the list of "good places to intensively develop into the engine of Yugoslavia", an economically centralized state where Belgrade and its environs received the most investment and paid for the schools and infrastructure of the other republics would, while not ideal, be better than the OTL approach.

I did mention this point to an extent in the opening post, and I would have to agree about doing something regarding the republics having control over their economic plans. As this is something that manifested from 1971 onwards (from what I can tell), we would have to examine in what circumstances this was introduced under, and see if there's some way we can delay it, if not prevent it (until the era of finalized decentralization, because I don't think we can prevent it then).

On the topic of development, from what I understand, the former Habsburg territories were generally always seen as more developed compared to the rest of Yugoslavia, and wanting the latter to catch up, investments were made to develop them (FYI, that point on Kosovo is indirectly felt today still). I could imagine that the Centralists, being Serb-dominated, likewise saw a necessity to develop the less-developed regions of Serbia over Croatia and Slovenia. With the Centralists lessened, we might see someone suggest that very point you just made, of investing into Croatia and Slovenia further as to allow for much more intensive development of other regions later... but even that has its shortcomings. Some arguments I've heard made said that Yugoslavia already relied on the developed regions of Croatia and Slovenia to keep itself up, and that the two areas didn't want to support the others when they could prosper more by themselves, so such a point might even backfire. And even if we choose the Belgrade area instead (whether as capital of Yugoslavia and Serbia, or a theoretical solo capital of Yugoslavia as its own separate entity, with Serbia having another capital), the earlier argument still stands.

Good. As the 20th century has shown us, the formation of national republics in a state with a federal structure is the reason for further separatism(in the USSR for national minorities that never had their own separate language and state). As an example: the current situation in Catalonia.
If Tito was a more independent figure and did not take this step, then Yugoslavia would continue to exist. If there was no foreign invasion, it would have been dismantled, like the USSR.
A centralized unitary state cannot be ruined in the same way, as national minorities will not have their own elite and state.

Centralized states aren't immune to collapse just because they keep minorities down. Expansionist neighbors can always find ways to exploit the ethnic strife. In the case of Royal Yugoslavia, they did. Italy and Hungaria funded the Ustaše to destabilize the kingdom. Worked like a charm. And even the majority of Croats had little desire to save a country that had been oppressive to them in recent times. Germans could walk through Croatia- nobody cared to stop them on their way to Belgrade.

To quote myself, "To believe [he] could've created a centralized Yugoslav political nation would be to ignore the internal affairs, both socially and politically."

Changundramon already made a good point, but I'll just emphasize it - a centralized Yugoslav state would not be immune to the issues a federalized state would've had. Even in a scenario where, say, a Yugoslavia had been formed not with Serbia as its base, but with one of the former Habsburg territories instead, you'd still have complications - the majority of the population either spoke a Serbian variant of Serbo-Croatian or identified as a Serb, meaning that now, with some theoretical Croatian royal, they could be used as a scapegoat, not just because of their majority nature, but also due to their religion. That's going to stoke frustration in the Serbian majority even more than the OTL case when they lost (perceived) power to the smaller groups, and you might even see a Ustaše-equivalent (a group using the imagery of the Black Hand, or even naming themselves after a cheta guerilla force...) form, which Italy and Hungary would no doubt try to take advantage of. And that's just one way that could develop - what if said theoretical Croatian royal ends up leaning towards the Serb majority? The Croats could end up feeling betrayed and frustrated by 'their' king.

The point of this being, a centralized unitary state won't prevent internal frustrations from manifesting, and at some point, that frustration will boil over. To believe otherwise, and think the state is stronger than the society it is built upon, especially in such a volatile region (not just internally, but also in its geopolitical position and international stature), is questionable at best.

I do think some amount of political federalization would also be beneficial for Yugoslavia, it is a matter of the right sort of federalism, rather than whether federalism is better or worse than centralism... Though centralism could well have worked better than the OTL form of federalism.

Though I'm still willing to hear genuine arguments as to why centralism could've worked better than Yugoslavia's OTL form of federalism, just as fasquardon pondered.

All I'm reading from you right now, Kapellan, are generalizations based on events that had specific circumstances occur which led to the developments which occurred (e.g. the situation with USSR, something that could've turned into the Sovereign Union had things turned out differently). Removing those circumstances from the equation and, yeah, what you've said makes sense. But developments are hardly ever that simple, and it can be real easy to fall into generalizations (as seen with TastySpam's example of Robert Kagan and his successful peddling of the idea of "ancient hatreds").

As such, I'll propose again that you make a counter-thread! If my rambleful opening post can allow for this sort of discussion to occur, imagine the benefits your argument would get if allowed to developed alongside like-minded individuals, constructing actual points!

Back to what fasquardon said, asking the question of what sort of federalism is a good question, all things considered! With a more liberal Communist Yugoslavia, the new status quo, the new orthodox for the country's federalism could end up in a different state than in OTL, so figuring this out would be a good thing to do!

 

[fasquardon]

On the topic of development, from what I understand, the former Habsburg territories were generally always seen as more developed compared to the rest of Yugoslavia, and wanting the latter to catch up, investments were made to develop them (FYI, that point on Kosovo is indirectly felt today still). I could imagine that the Centralists, being Serb-dominated, likewise saw a necessity to develop the less-developed regions of Serbia over Croatia and Slovenia. With the Centralists lessened, we might see someone suggest that very point you just made, of investing into Croatia and Slovenia further as to allow for much more intensive development of other regions later... but even that has its shortcomings. Some arguments I've heard made said that Yugoslavia already relied on the developed regions of Croatia and Slovenia to keep itself up, and that the two areas didn't want to support the others when they could prosper more by themselves, so such a point might even backfire. And even if we choose the Belgrade area instead (whether as capital of Yugoslavia and Serbia, or a theoretical solo capital of Yugoslavia as its own separate entity, with Serbia having another capital), the earlier argument still stands.

So WI Yugoslavia makes Yugozilia (Yugoslav Brazilia) and prioritizes it in its economic plans from say... Hm. When would it realistically be founded? Straight after WW2 seems too early. The 50s seem too chaotic with the Tito-Stalin split and so on... Maybe at the start of the 60s? That could actually be an elegant way to get the required concentration of investment without appearing to favour one ethnic group over the others. I expect it would take a long time for the new city to start to make a good return on that investment. Maybe by the 80s it would actually start to be a net contributor to the economy, rather than a net drain. I think Brazilia had a leadtime on that order.

That could actually work out quite well, with the new capital becoming a dynamic economic hub just as trade with the USSR was collapsing.

fasquardon

 

[Damian0358]

So WI Yugoslavia makes Yugozilia (Yugoslav Brazilia) and prioritizes it in its economic plans from say... Hm. When would it realistically be founded? Straight after WW2 seems too early. The 50s seem too chaotic with the Tito-Stalin split and so on... Maybe at the start of the 60s? That could actually be an elegant way to get the required concentration of investment without appearing to favour one ethnic group over the others. I expect it would take a long time for the new city to start to make a good return on that investment. Maybe by the 80s it would actually start to be a net contributor to the economy, rather than a net drain. I think Brazilia had a leadtime on that order.

That could actually work out quite well, with the new capital becoming a dynamic economic hub just as trade with the USSR was collapsing.

Well, considering the PoD would be, by this point, about two or so decades ago, a proposal for a planned capital might just manifest in the late 50s, early 60s, depending on who's on board. But that does still bring about the issue of where such a capital would be - most logically it would be somewhere in Bosnia (which might contribute to the subtle suggestion I had made, of making Bosnia a "light nation", where all those within supported the country, to prevent any theoretical Serbian lobby from insisting that Bosnia was a "dark nation" where all those who oppose the government will be prosecuted), but the question then becomes where exactly it would make sense to build (whether there will be some sort of symbolism behind it, whether the area chosen has a potential "melting pot" effect, whether there's only demographic pluralities, geographic considerations [especially the Dinarides], etc, etc.). Depending on where it is built, this theoretical capital might be a net drain for longer than Brasilia was.

On the flip side, if Yugoslavia hosts the 1984 Winter Olympics again, this theoretical capital could be the place to host it in, as to encourage more investments (though this might butterfly the fact that Sarajevo, so far, has been the only Muslim-majority city to host the Olympics, since the capital is likely to pull in many Serbs and Croats). Makes me wonder about Yugoslav pop culture once more...

 

[JSchafer]

Yugoslavia can’t survive and there are multiple reasons for it. Primary one being nationalism, national exceptionalism, unequal rights and lack of actual power.

So let me present a simple example that was mentioned, Cardinal Stepinac. During WW2 a lot of Serbs and most of Jews were captured and exterminated. Stepinac was one of the few catholic leaders who baptized people so they can acquire papers to escape the country. Something that was done in the rest of Europe and was even praised as it played a good part in saving lives of many Jews. In Yugoslavia he is either seen as blessed by Croats or absolute monster by Serbs because these groups are capable of seeing the same event trough completely different lenses.

Then comes nationalism. Now I know that for most people in the west nationalism is either that obnoxious X is better than everyone or the foreigners out type of deal. In Balkans people practically live for it and will put up with almost anything for it.

National exceptionalism and injustice comes in when dealing with minority groups, Bosnians and Albanians primarily. They were neither given equal rights nor treated as anything else other than potentially assimilated material or foreign tissue.

And last one is actual power. During WW1 Serbia suffered catastrophic casualties that crippled its ability to grow numerically. Then in WW2 they lost another batch of fit young men crippling them again. They lacked the numbers to impose their will on others but not the attitude. Which led to resentment hate and disloyalty to the state.

 

[Richard V]

Someone mentioned elsewhere that if Albania had been included in Yugoslavia it would’ve reduced Serbian influence and placated the other nationalities. At least the situation with Kosovo would be better.

 

[Changundramon]

When (older) people think of SFR Yugoslavia, the first things that get mentioned are free healthcare, stable jobs and guaranteed holidays. Brotherhood and unity comes after. Thus, one has to wonder if a Yugoslavia which transitions to capitalism could even survive? I had been living only a few months on this planet before Yugoslavia fell apart, but I get the impression that people wanted socialism itself more than a joint state with other South Slavic peoples.

 

[Damian0358]

Someone mentioned elsewhere that if Albania had been included in Yugoslavia it would’ve reduced Serbian influence and placated the other nationalities. At least the situation with Kosovo would be better.

While removing Centralist influence has already improved the situation with Kosovo somewhat, including Albania could theoretically work if such a Yugoslavia were to lean into the history of Albanian nationalism, encouraging the defense of the country's territorial integrity, lest their lands be divided once more (though this works better for a Yugoslavia that still has the threat of Italy being irredentist). But I doubt it would've helped in the long-run relating to OTL, since you'd still have the rising issues of nationalism, and arguably 'relations' between the Serbs and Albanians were worse than those with the Croats following WW2. The ultimate difference would be that the Yugoslav War would now be a two-front war for the Serbs.

So let me present a simple example that was mentioned, Cardinal Stepinac. During WW2 a lot of Serbs and most of Jews were captured and exterminated. Stepinac was one of the few catholic leaders who baptized people so they can acquire papers to escape the country. Something that was done in the rest of Europe and was even praised as it played a good part in saving lives of many Jews. In Yugoslavia he is either seen as blessed by Croats or absolute monster by Serbs because these groups are capable of seeing the same event trough completely different lenses.

I do feel like the point raised by Triune earlier, about the influence of the Communist government in how Stepinac is perceived, may play a role in how Serbs see him, and a different set of events (different, more palatable, demands made to Stepinac, which he accepts unlike OTL - paired with the suggested "Decade of Brotherhood") could shift the consensus from "absolute monster" to "complicit, but apologetic". Still a different lens on the same event, compared to the Croats, but one that is more reconcilable.

Then comes nationalism. Now I know that for most people in the west nationalism is either that obnoxious X is better than everyone or the foreigners out type of deal. In Balkans people practically live for it and will put up with almost anything for it.

National exceptionalism and injustice comes in when dealing with minority groups, Bosnians and Albanians primarily. They were neither given equal rights nor treated as anything else other than potentially assimilated material or foreign tissue.

Nationalism has played a strong role in the Balkans, for sure, especially considering how the region was under foreign control for centuries (to the point of binding the church to the nation, in the case of those who were under Ottoman control), but we shouldn't completely simplify the matter, and say it is impossible because of it. With the proper administration in power, and concessions to all parties in mind, you could work towards eliminating some of the greatest frustrations, such as the belief that the government caters to one people more than the other.

National exceptionalism and injustice is, in my eyes, a more important thing to deal with, as a result. The dealings with the Albanian minority had already improved in TTL with the removal of Ranković (and whomever else collaborated with him in regards to Kosovo during his control of the area), and progress could be made further with the "Decade of Brotherhood". Similarly, with the Bosniaks, under a more liberal administration, further work could be put into the confirmation of Bosniaks as an actual group (replacing the usage of Muslim as an ethnicity), connecting that identity with Yugoslavia, and making progress towards developing the area into something that wouldn't be considered a backwater country.

And last one is actual power. During WW1 Serbia suffered catastrophic casualties that crippled its ability to grow numerically. Then in WW2 they lost another batch of fit young men crippling them again. They lacked the numbers to impose their will on others but not the attitude. Which led to resentment hate and disloyalty to the state.

And this brings me to the main point of this WI thread - the Centralists, though loyal to Yugoslavia, were the majority group that maintained that attitude and tried to maintain it throughout Communist Yugoslavia, and were thus opposed to the Federalists, because their more liberal ideas and suggestions clashed with this attitude. By weakening them severely at the start (by eliminating key figures during the war, such as Ranković), the Federalists in turn get strengthened and get to be the ones to establish the status quo, the orthodoxy of the state. While weakening the Centralists won't get rid of the attitude or ideas they'd espouse or inspire, they'd have less of a footing to push through, which would reduce the amount of resentment, hate and disloyalty the non-Serbs had to the state, and at barely any costs to the loyalty of the Serbs, because the Federalists could appeal to them more efficiently, without the precedent set by the Centralists of OTL.

The points brought up can't be propped up by their lonesome, because they have to be placed into historical context, and the unfortunate fact is that Communist Yugoslavia's ultimate failing was the fact that it couldn't keep national exceptionalism and injustice out of the foundation of the new state following the war, as a result of the Centralists gaining broader influence over the Federalists (before flip-flopping between the two over the decades, which arguably didn't help, especially socially and economically). In my eyes, a lot of these issues can be rectified by the great weakening of the Centralists.

When (older) people think of SFR Yugoslavia, the first things that get mentioned are free healthcare, stable jobs and guaranteed holidays. Brotherhood and unity comes after. Thus, one has to wonder if a Yugoslavia which transitions to capitalism could even survive? I had been living only a few months on this planet before Yugoslavia fell apart, but I get the impression that people wanted socialism itself more than a joint state with other South Slavic peoples.

That is a good point! I did make a point of having the country transition into social democracy, of the Nordic styling, even if flawed, because it makes more sense than transitioning towards neoliberalism. So arguably, a transitioned Yugoslavia should still have free healthcare, and guaranteed holidays, though with a theoretical recession in the 90s (even with the avoiding of a major economic crisis, I still feel like a recession is inevitable) the stability of jobs will be put on hold for a time.

Of course, if you wanted Yugoslav exceptionalism, you could argue that, by the time of the transition TTL, they've thought up a merger between social democracy and democratic socialism, containing more socialism elements than Nordic-style social democracy (Socialism with Yugoslav characteristics? Illyrian capitalism? [insert surname here]ist social democracy?), and have adopted that instead.

Still, the point to be drawn from this is a retention of (relative) stability and benefits, because if the state can't provide, why not try to achieve it your own way?

 

[JSchafer]

While removing Centralist influence has already improved the situation with Kosovo somewhat, including Albania could theoretically work if such a Yugoslavia were to lean into the history of Albanian nationalism, encouraging the defense of the country's territorial integrity, lest their lands be divided once more (though this works better for a Yugoslavia that still has the threat of Italy being irredentist). But I doubt it would've helped in the long-run relating to OTL, since you'd still have the rising issues of nationalism, and arguably 'relations' between the Serbs and Albanians were worse than those with the Croats following WW2. The ultimate difference would be that the Yugoslav War would now be a two-front war for the Serbs.



I do feel like the point raised by Triune earlier, about the influence of the Communist government in how Stepinac is perceived, may play a role in how Serbs see him, and a different set of events (different, more palatable, demands made to Stepinac, which he accepts unlike OTL - paired with the suggested "Decade of Brotherhood") could shift the consensus from "absolute monster" to "complicit, but apologetic". Still a different lens on the same event, compared to the Croats, but one that is more reconcilable.



Nationalism has played a strong role in the Balkans, for sure, especially considering how the region was under foreign control for centuries (to the point of binding the church to the nation, in the case of those who were under Ottoman control), but we shouldn't completely simplify the matter, and say it is impossible because of it. With the proper administration in power, and concessions to all parties in mind, you could work towards eliminating some of the greatest frustrations, such as the belief that the government caters to one people more than the other.

National exceptionalism and injustice is, in my eyes, a more important thing to deal with, as a result. The dealings with the Albanian minority had already improved in TTL with the removal of Ranković (and whomever else collaborated with him in regards to Kosovo during his control of the area), and progress could be made further with the "Decade of Brotherhood". Similarly, with the Bosniaks, under a more liberal administration, further work could be put into the confirmation of Bosniaks as an actual group (replacing the usage of Muslim as an ethnicity), connecting that identity with Yugoslavia, and making progress towards developing the area into something that wouldn't be considered a backwater country.



And this brings me to the main point of this WI thread - the Centralists, though loyal to Yugoslavia, were the majority group that maintained that attitude and tried to maintain it throughout Communist Yugoslavia, and were thus opposed to the Federalists, because their more liberal ideas and suggestions clashed with this attitude. By weakening them severely at the start (by eliminating key figures during the war, such as Ranković), the Federalists in turn get strengthened and get to be the ones to establish the status quo, the orthodoxy of the state. While weakening the Centralists won't get rid of the attitude or ideas they'd espouse or inspire, they'd have less of a footing to push through, which would reduce the amount of resentment, hate and disloyalty the non-Serbs had to the state, and at barely any costs to the loyalty of the Serbs, because the Federalists could appeal to them more efficiently, without the precedent set by the Centralists of OTL.

The points brought up can't be propped up by their lonesome, because they have to be placed into historical context, and the unfortunate fact is that Communist Yugoslavia's ultimate failing was the fact that it couldn't keep national exceptionalism and injustice out of the foundation of the new state following the war, as a result of the Centralists gaining broader influence over the Federalists (before flip-flopping between the two over the decades, which arguably didn't help, especially socially and economically). In my eyes, a lot of these issues can be rectified by the great weakening of the Centralists.



That is a good point! I did make a point of having the country transition into social democracy, of the Nordic styling, even if flawed, because it makes more sense than transitioning towards neoliberalism. So arguably, a transitioned Yugoslavia should still have free healthcare, and guaranteed holidays, though with a theoretical recession in the 90s (even with the avoiding of a major economic crisis, I still feel like a recession is inevitable) the stability of jobs will be put on hold for a time.

Of course, if you wanted Yugoslav exceptionalism, you could argue that, by the time of the transition TTL, they've thought up a merger between social democracy and democratic socialism, containing more socialism elements than Nordic-style social democracy (Socialism with Yugoslav characteristics? Illyrian capitalism? [insert surname here]ist social democracy?), and have adopted that instead.

Still, the point to be drawn from this is a retention of (relative) stability and benefits, because if the state can't provide, why not try to achieve it your own way?

I’ll just give you one recent example my coworker showed me. So there’s a large company in Herzegovina called Aluminum and as the name states that’s what they produce. The company is in government ownership but purely ran by Croats and Croat party. They siphoned off the funds for almost 30 years for themselves and fired Serbs and Bosniaks off decades ago. The company of course starts failing so the government offers them a deal where the government owned company producing Electricity would provide cheap electricity so the company can make a profit. They refused because that company is ran by Bosniaks. Which put them further into debt. Instead they bought electricity at exhorbitant prices from Croatia and imported it. Then when they could no longer even pay for that they demanded a bailout but other parties in the government asked that Bosniaks and Serbs be reinstated to their jobs. They refused and Croatia cut the power

They refused to believe it would be shut off because the company employed over 10k people and tens of thousands of families depend on it (they also had the highest wages in the country, 3500 being a minimum for the cleaning lady in a country where the average is 800)

Anyway power goes out and molten aluminum in electrolysis cells starts to cool and harden ruining them completely.

Then a few months later, a few foreign investors show up, from Singapore and UAE. They offer a great deal, to keep all the employed at work and to keep the old wages due to a deal provided by the government that the Bosniak owned electro company will provide power. The workers and the management refused despite literally loosing income for tens of thousands of people because they don’t want a Muslim owning the company and paying them wages. It’s insanity and that’s what you’re dealing with in Yugoslavia. You can’t fix it

 

[Damian0358]

It’s insanity and that’s what you’re dealing with in Yugoslavia. You can’t fix it.

And who's to say what happened with Aluminij Mostar recently would repeat TTL with a different Yugoslavia? The argument I'm getting here is that what happened OTL is blamable on the social circumstances developed in the Balkans since the 19th century and the attitudes that emerged from them, and that even a more liberal Communist Yugoslavia is doomed to ruin because of that, which I don't feel is the case. While I disagreed with Kapellan's earlier argument, we ultimately can't ignore the impact of the government on society, as well as the economic circumstances which additionally influence said society.

There are aspects of society that ultimately aren't 'fixable', but things can be improved enough that the break-up of Yugoslavia can be avoided, in my opinion and argumentation so far. It's the reason why this thread exists in the first place!

 

[Triune Kingdom]

snip

To be fair, insanity comes from the fact that both Muslims and Croats were shooting at each other back in the 90ies, and without the breakup and the violence, I doubt that the phantom of Nationalism would be as strong ITTL as it is IOTL.

@Damian0358 As far as the Stepinac is concerned, I do like your idea of "Complicit but Apologetic", with less harsh demands imposed upon him by the Communist Government, then he could really be a valuable asset for the Communist government. Especially once the Tito-Stalin break occurs, having a Catholic Archbishop speaking in favour of Yugoslavia could really change perception of Western nations and their governments might have of Yugoslavia.

In regards to the Economy, Worker Self-Management could very well work, especially if Liberal wing of the SKJ gets its way, and pushes through some needed methods, like idea of Socialist Market Economy, where various self managed companies engaged in sort of equal footing, with less Central Planning by the State. Having the economy tick on and continue to be productive and growing really would remove one sword hanging above Yugoslavia.

Lastly, Military really needs some work, and I am struggling a bit to see how that might be acomplished. A lot depends upon the foreign policy and relations, and what course Yugoslavia pursues, the OTL "Nesvrstani" or maybe a much closer alignment towards the West? If they pursue closer relations with the Western nations, would we see formation of units of "Teritorijalne Obrane" as IOTL, creating de facto Constituent Republic militaries? If I am not mistaken, these units were funded by their own republics, being yet another drain upon the economy, not to mention paying for the YPA as well. Having a Western oriented Yugoslavia would also result in much of their hardware being Western Sourced, thus resulting in less of a hodgepodge, at least compared to the OTL, where YPA had 6 main artillery calibers in 1991, not to mention hanging on to things like T-34s and Shermans as well (though to be fair in reserve). Doctrine would also be interesting to see, especially if the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia does not result with adoption of "Total War Partisan Style" and creation of Teritorial Defense units, or is different in some way?

Though, in this ATL will we see Yugoslavia getting its own Nuclear weapon? They were rather close to it OTL, and had the capability to do it, so will we see Sutjeska?

 

[Damian0358]

In regards to the Economy, Worker Self-Management could very well work, especially if Liberal wing of the SKJ gets its way, and pushes through some needed methods, like idea of Socialist Market Economy, where various self managed companies engaged in sort of equal footing, with less Central Planning by the State. Having the economy tick on and continue to be productive and growing really would remove one sword hanging above Yugoslavia.

Yeah, that is one benefit of the weakening of the Centralists, the Liberal/Federalist wing having more chances to push through needed developments/reforms, whether it be earlier or at all.

Lastly, Military really needs some work, and I am struggling a bit to see how that might be acomplished. A lot depends upon the foreign policy and relations, and what course Yugoslavia pursues, the OTL "Nesvrstani" or maybe a much closer alignment towards the West? If they pursue closer relations with the Western nations, would we see formation of units of "Teritorijalne Obrane" as IOTL, creating de facto Constituent Republic militaries? If I am not mistaken, these units were funded by their own republics, being yet another drain upon the economy, not to mention paying for the YPA as well. Having a Western oriented Yugoslavia would also result in much of their hardware being Western Sourced, thus resulting in less of a hodgepodge, at least compared to the OTL, where YPA had 6 main artillery calibers in 1991, not to mention hanging on to things like T-34s and Shermans as well (though to be fair in reserve). Doctrine would also be interesting to see, especially if the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia does not result with adoption of "Total War Partisan Style" and creation of Teritorial Defense units, or is different in some way?

Military is absolutely another area we have to consider, and don't worry, I'm on the same boat when it comes to struggling what can be done.

Assuming a roughly convergent timeline when not regarding Yugoslavia, the question of doctrine is an interesting one. By '68, TTL we'd have a shift in orthodoxy compared to OTL, but how much would that impact decision making in regards to the military? In how far could the National Defense Law of 1969 be altered, or even changed, were something like that to repeat? Could arguments against the TO Forces from OTL (concerns that they could be used to oppose the federal government in an act of secession) be able to prevent its passing TTL, especially if we assume my suggestions for clearing up the ambiguities in regards to the right to self-determination end up being adopted? Heck, could the economic argument be brought up alongside it?

I personally prefer the course of "Nesvrstani", but that doesn't meant that there can't be closer alignments towards the West (especially if it benefits fellow NAM members too, in raising them up to the same height as the First World, though still maintaining its own way). The thought of more Western-sourced equipment is, interesting, to say the least. How would this impact Crvena Zastava? Would we see them getting more licenses from Western factories to build their guns (akin to how, in the 80s, they received the license to build the Škorpion vz. 61 from ČZUB)? Could this lead to a diversification (of available arms under the Zastava brand) or lead to them becoming less diverse? What models end up getting butterflied as a result? And how does that impact other firearms made in Yugoslavia, like the MGV-176? Lots of interesting developments here.

Though, in this ATL will we see Yugoslavia getting its own Nuclear weapon? They were rather close to it OTL, and had the capability to do it, so will we see Sutjeska?

Oh, I absolutely do not feel qualified to answer that question. Nor the possible follow-up question of whether Yugoslavia could get more nuclear power plants aside from Krško up and running.

But, I feel as though a more liberal administration might opt against actually making a proper nuclear weapon, and shift towards making sustainable nuclear power for the country. Unless you want to argue that having a nuclear weapon could add an additional argument against the establishment of TO Forces, which, I mean, it works as an argument. But I would imagine that the topic of nuclear power would shift from military musings to economic thought. This does bring about the entertaining thought of Yugoslavia becoming an exporter of electricity akin to France (with all the pros and cons that could entail), were nuclear power to become more efficient in the country.

 

[Triune Kingdom]

snip.

Well, I do think that it could be argued that forming TO units would give too much power to the Republics, and later on enable them to rebel against the central government. But, entire thing about TO could end up with Federalists giving it up as a concession to the Centralists, while pushing for seriously needed economic reforms in return. In regards to the military, while some may argue that TO would leave Yugoslavia weaker, I feel that an increase in regular army would be much better option, and would probably cost less in the long term, with a bit less burden being imposed upon the individual republics.
--------
As far as military equipment is concerned, it very much depends where does Yugoslavia align. OTL, from late 70ies onwards Yugoslavia was able to produce quite advanced military equipment for a nation of its size, so whichever way they turn they could be able to at very least keep up with its neighbors, at least in regards to some military equipment.

It could produce a lot for its own needs, including things like MBTs, Helicopters and small warships, but things like advanced jets and the like were quite a bit of a leap, and while it would be nice to see Novi Avion see service, it would probably be cheaper to buy Mirage 2000 or something.

In regards to the infantry equipment, it is very likely that OTL combination of 7.62x39 and 7.92x57 remains in use, it would really be hard to justify them changing the calibers during most of the Cold War, maybe after? Though, while Šarac is a very good MG, being after all a MG42 clone, I wonder what will they do in regards to other infantry small arms. M59 and M70, the Yugoslav made versions of SKS and AKM are likely to still be produced, since no matter how foreign policy might change from OTL, I really do not see YPA using FN FAL or M16 rifles, thus they stick with what they had IOTL. However, as Cold War drags on, we could see OTL developments repeat itself, with things like M90 Zastava (AKM in 5.56), M84 in 7.62 NATO or rechambering of M53 Šarac in NATO cartridge, if the Yugoslavia turns more and more towards the West.
-------
As far as Nuclear matters are concerned, it would really be interesting to see greater amounts of Nuclear Powerplants, and Yugoslavia becoming an exporter of electricity. But, greater investment in Hydropower would not go amiss as well, considering the amount of hydropotential Yugoslavia as a whole could put to use.

Though, now that I am thinking of Electricity, I cannot help but imagine a Electric version of Yugo, The Yugo EV.

Edit: A more liberal Yugoslavia is likely to make different choices in regards to domestic arms production, and perhaps make wiser choices. However, if the "Nesvrstani" come about ITTL as well, many of the OTL arms choices might be made, even if Territorial Defense units never come into being.

With that in mind, I have just found some interesting info about domestic arms production, so I am going to dump it here.

Spoiler: Yugoslavia Arms Production

Beginning in the mid-1970s, Yugoslavia made considerable progress in replacing imports with cheaper domestically manufactured military equipment. As Yugoslav military equipment approached the quality of European equipment, international sale of such products became a potential source of hard currency for the Yugoslav economy. By 1990 Yugoslav industry was providing about 80 percent of basic military equipment and some advanced systems. But that figure included mostly infantry weapons, antitank systems, armored vehicles, boats and ships, and relatively simple components. Although the objective was to keep pace with the best armaments in NATO and Warsaw Pact inventories, this goal was hindered by the tremendous financial and technological obstacles facing all of Yugoslav industry in 1990. The Yugoslav arms industry upgraded or modernized existing systems when possible, extended the service life or improved the effectiveness of major weapons systems, and shared research and development breakthroughs with civilian industry to maximize economic impact. Yugoslav arms industries operated somewhat differently from other economic enterprises. Article 281 of the Constitution empowered the federal secretary for national defense to regulate associated labor and selfmanaging organizations involved in defense production and research. A 1979 law on domestic defense industries consolidated many enterprises producing arms and other military equipment. It also provided the federal secretary for national defense more direct control over the activities of those enterprises. Domestic defense production in the 1970s had been hampered by the relative autonomy of many highly interdependent industries. As many as 240 loosely associated enterprises produced necessary parts for a single complex weapons system. The 1979 law weakened the principle of self-management in defense production enterprises, citing their special role in national security. The law severely circumscribed the right of employees to set prices for their products. This provision allayed military concerns about the inflation and escalating arms costs caused by worker wage demands. Workers continued the formal process of setting prices, but only under strict guidelines issued by the federal secretary for national defense. The federal secretary also prepared an arms import program. Funds from the defense budget had to be allocated if foreign exchange earnings from arms exports did not match the cost of arms imports. The secretary was responsible for arranging credit or payment terms with foreign governments or suppliers.

The ground forces were the first priority in Yugoslavia's arms procurement plans. The most urgent requirements were replacement of obsolete armored forces and improvement of mobile defense infantry weapons, including antitank and antiaircraft systems, to compensate for infantry manpower cutbacks. In 1990 Yugoslavia also was developing its own military aircraft and helicopters. Improved target detection and designation systems were sought.

In the late 1970s, the Soviet Union granted Yugoslavia a license to build the T-72 tank. The Yugoslav version, designated M-84, went into serial production in the late 1980s. According to Yugoslav sources, the M-84 had a computerized fire control system, electronics, and a laser rangefinder comparable to those of advanced NATO and Warsaw Pact models. It featured protection against armor-piercing shells, a low silhouette, and a defensive alarm system to warn the crew when the vehicle was illuminated by enemy radar, infrared, or laser target designators.

By contrast, the Yugoslav M-980 armored combat vehicle was an entirely domestic design. When initially fielded in 1975, it was one of the world's most advanced models, rated on a par with the Soviet BMP-1 or French AMX-10. The amphibious M-980 carried an eight-man infantry squad, a driver, and a gunner. It was armed with Soviet AT-3 antitank guided missiles, a 20mm cannon, and 7.92mm machine gun, and powered by a Snecma diesel engine. The Yugoslav BOV was a particularly versatile domestic armored reconnaissance vehicle configured with a number of mounted antitank and antiaircraft weapons systems.

Yugoslavia produced its first fighter aircraft in 1950 and followed it with many trainers and experimental aircraft in later years. In the mid-1960s, the Galeb and Jastreb fighters were the first domestically manufactured jet aircraft. In the 1970s, Yugoslavia produced the Super Galeb light attack aircraft and began to work jointly with Romania to develop its first sophisticated domestic fighter/attack aircraft, the Orao. A single Rolls Royce Mk 632 Viper turbojet engine powered the Super Galeb, which carried two twin 23mm cannons, 57mm and 128mm rockets, and cluster bombs. Its total ordnance load capability was 2,000 kilograms. The Orao incorporated both domestic and foreign technology, including twin Rolls Royce Mk 633-41 Viper turbojet engines. The initial prototype was ready in 1974, and serial production began in 1980. Performance of the Orao was very similar to that of the Alpha jet used by NATO forces.

Although it represented a considerable advance for Yugoslav military aviation, the Orao had some significant shortcomings. It was limited to subsonic performance, carried a relatively light weapons load of 2,500 kilograms, lacked air-to-air missiles, and offered a short combat radius of 400 kilometers. By 1990, fewer than 100 had been built, and plans to build a new multirole fighter cast doubt on the future of the Orao program.

In the 1980s, the Ivo Lola Ribar Machine Industry of Belgrade began manufacturing French Aérospatiale SA-342 Gazelle helicopters under license. Called the Partisan, this was the first domestically produced rotary-wing aircraft. It could carry four launchers for AT-3 antitank guided missiles.

In 1990 Yugoslavia had a solid technological and manufacturing base for producing other weapons systems; the main weak points of this base were in electronics and guidance technologies. Yugoslavia cooperated with Sweden to produce laser rangefinders and gun sights. Its arms industries used Soviet, Czechoslovak, and United States models to achieve selfsufficiency in rifles, machine guns, light antiarmor rockets, mortars, and artillery pieces, and to provide a substantial portion of boats and landing craft used by the YPA. The Soviet Osa class served as a design model for Yugoslav missile boats, which were powered by British turbine engines and armed with French-supplied Exocet antiship missiles. The Yugoslav 501-class landing craft was a versatile platform capable of transporting three tanks and two platoons of troops or two eight-gun artillery batteries. It also could serve as a coastal minelayer. But in 1990, Yugoslavia still relied on the Soviet Union and a number of Italian, Spanish, Swiss, and Swedish arms firms for weapons and electronics to outfit the ships and boats built in Yugoslav shipyards.

Domestic production of antitank systems was a high priority because such systems were not easily available elsewhere. The Soviet Union was reluctant to provide Yugoslavia its more advanced antitank guided missiles, which might be used later against its own main battle tanks. The United States had declined to sell TOW missiles because Yugoslavia had failed to abide by the terms of previous arms transfers.

We should also keep in mind that Arms exports are a very valuable source of Foreign Exchange, and if Yugoslavia gains a capability to produce both NATO and Warsaw Pact types of weapons, that would allow it access to a wide variety of markets.

So some more info:

Spoiler: Yugoslavia Arms Exports

In 1990 Yugoslavia was among a small group of poorer countries with industrial economies actively developing arms export industries. In the international arms market, competition from larger countries was formidable. A civilian government organization, the Federal Directorate for Supply and Procurement, managed foreign sales programs. In the late 1980s, arms exports averaged over US$400 million per year, exceeding US$500 million per year twice between 1977 and 1987. However, the amount fluctuated by as much as 40 percent from year to year. Yugoslavia sold almost US$2 billion worth of weapons to Iraq in its war with Iran during the 1980s. In that decade, Yugoslav arms sales exceeded those of Warsaw Pact countries Hungary, the German Democratic Republic (East Germany), and Bulgaria, NATO members Belgium and the Netherlands, and neutral countries Austria, Sweden, and Switzerland. They were less than those of Warsaw Pact countries Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Romania and NATO countries Spain and Italy. Arms accounted for an average of 4 percent of total Yugoslav exports annually and as much as 6 or 7 percent in some years. In all, Yugoslav arms went to sixty-seven countries in 1990, but the Middle East and North Africa were the prime markets. Many top customer countries were members of the Nonaligned Movement. Among other weapons and equipment, Yugoslavia exported ammunition, antiarmor and antitank weapons systems, frigates, missile boats, and Mala swimmer delivery vehicles. A proposed expansion for the 1990s was to include foreign sale of the Orao ground attack fighter and the Partisan helicopter.

In the 1980s, Yugoslav weapons sales to troubled regions of the world became an important ethical issue for many citizens, especially in Slovenia. They objected to the lack of Federal Assembly oversight and public information about the country's arms industries and their dealings abroad. In the early 1980s, Yugoslavia apparently helped a Swedish firm avoid Sweden's strict arms export laws. It posed as the ultimate recipient of Bofors 40mm L/70 antiaircraft guns and artillery pieces that were subsequently reexported to Libya and Iraq. The incident revealed the extent of Yugoslav involvement in the international arms market. In 1988 the situation became a cause célèbre in Slovenia when the Slovenes who had revealed Yugoslavia's role were arrested and tried for divulging military secrets.

 

[Damian0358]

Well, I do think that it could be argued that forming TO units would give too much power to the Republics, and later on enable them to rebel against the central government. But, entire thing about TO could end up with Federalists giving it up as a concession to the Centralists, while pushing for seriously needed economic reforms in return. In regards to the military, while some may argue that TO would leave Yugoslavia weaker, I feel that an increase in regular army would be much better option, and would probably cost less in the long term, with a bit less burden being imposed upon the individual republics.

I could certainly see a concession made to the Centralists on the matter of TO, though likely not in giving the individual republics control over their own units. The TO of TTL might end up highly centralized instead, organized not by the republics but by the federal government. It makes me wonder how the politics surrounding that would develop after the concession is made.

As far as Nuclear matters are concerned, it would really be interesting to see greater amounts of Nuclear Powerplants, and Yugoslavia becoming an exporter of electricity. But, greater investment in Hydropower would not go amiss as well, considering the amount of hydropotential Yugoslavia as a whole could put to use.

Though, now that I am thinking of Electricity, I cannot help but imagine a Electric version of Yugo, The Yugo EV.

Hm, a combination of hydropower and nuclear power might just work! Perhaps tie it into a theoretical proposal for a planned capital - one built in a location where hydropower and/or nuclear power could be used for energy, as a testbed of sorts.

Though, for some reason, I don't know if the Yugo would be called, well, the Yugo TTL. If Yugoslavia ends up being non-aligned-yet-Western-facing, the whole deal with Miro Kefurt (where the name Yugo originated) and Malcolm Bricklin may have turned out quite differently. Perhaps the international market would become familiar with the Zastava "Jugo" 102 (as the original number and name was, named after the domestic term for the sirocco wind) rather than the Yugo 45/Yugo GV, making Zastava the brand rather than Yugo.

As far as military equipment is concerned, it very much depends where does Yugoslavia align. OTL, from late 70ies onwards Yugoslavia was able to produce quite advanced military equipment for a nation of its size, so whichever way they turn they could be able to at very least keep up with its neighbors, at least in regards to some military equipment. It could produce a lot for its own needs, including things like MBTs, Helicopters and small warships, but things like advanced jets and the like were quite a bit of a leap, and while it would be nice to see Novi Avion see service, it would probably be cheaper to buy Mirage 2000 or something. A more liberal Yugoslavia is likely to make different choices in regards to domestic arms production, and perhaps make wiser choices. However, if the "Nesvrstani" come about ITTL as well, many of the OTL arms choices might be made, even if Territorial Defense units never come into being.

In regards to the infantry equipment, it is very likely that OTL combination of 7.62x39 and 7.92x57 remains in use, it would really be hard to justify them changing the calibers during most of the Cold War, maybe after? Though, while Šarac is a very good MG, being after all a MG42 clone, I wonder what will they do in regards to other infantry small arms. M59 and M70, the Yugoslav made versions of SKS and AKM are likely to still be produced, since no matter how foreign policy might change from OTL, I really do not see YPA using FN FAL or M16 rifles, thus they stick with what they had IOTL. However, as Cold War drags on, we could see OTL developments repeat itself, with things like M90 Zastava (AKM in 5.56), M84 in 7.62 NATO or rechambering of M53 Šarac in NATO cartridge, if the Yugoslavia turns more and more towards the West.

I'm just going to nod my head as though I'm fully aware of the suggestions and implications you've made, yes, yes.

But to be more serious, I suppose it does make sense that things could repeat as per OTL if we have the move towards non-alignment, and continued shifts towards adopting NATO cartridge.

With that in mind, I have just found some interesting info about domestic arms production, so I am going to dump it here.

Yugoslavia Arms Production

We should also keep in mind that Arms exports are a very valuable source of Foreign Exchange, and if Yugoslavia gains a capability to produce both NATO and Warsaw Pact types of weapons, that would allow it access to a wide variety of markets.

Yugoslavia Arms Exports

Ooo, info dumps! Exciting!

The beginning section on the legislative developments regarding the arms/defense industry is fascinating, and it makes me wonder whether we'd see an exact repeat of it TTL, if only because they are important to national security. But it does give a clear show of what were the priorities and interests in this area OTL, as well as capabilities, a good base for speculation TTL. Rather important stuff!

I wonder if the point of electronics and guidance technologies might shift TTL with the removal of a major economic crisis, and further leanings towards the West (reminds me of the memetic point of Japan I had mentioned, though really, it isn't like something can't be done about that). Same goes for the point brought up on antitank systems.

But yeah, the point on arms exports should be taken into account, not only in regards to the economy, but also when regarding foreign affairs. The info you shared mentions the ethical issue of Yugoslav weapons sales to troubled regions, and it wasn't merely just an issue with citizens - it was a pain in the eyes of the US and the USSR too, which gives them all the more reason to act subversively (a point which I'm not even sure could be changed if Yugoslavia leaned more westwards after becoming non-aligned).

 

[Triune Kingdom]

I could certainly see a concession made to the Centralists on the matter of TO, though likely not in giving the individual republics control over their own units. The TO of TTL might end up highly centralized instead, organized not by the republics but by the federal government. It makes me wonder how the politics surrounding that would develop after the concession is made.

Well, TO might yet emerge, and if its much weaker and centralized arrangement ITTL, financial and political impact of its existance and eventual disbandement could be minimal. But, nevertheless, it could be a valuable tool in the Federalist arsenal, especially if they manage to push through a better economic policy by agreeing to a TO much reduced in scope compared to OTL.

Hm, a combination of hydropower and nuclear power might just work! Perhaps tie it into a theoretical proposal for a planned capital - one built in a location where hydropower and/or nuclear power could be used for energy, as a testbed of sorts.

Though, for some reason, I don't know if the Yugo would be called, well, the Yugo TTL. If Yugoslavia ends up being non-aligned-yet-Western-facing, the whole deal with Miro Kefurt (where the name Yugo originated) and Malcolm Bricklin may have turned out quite differently. Perhaps the international market would become familiar with the Zastava "Jugo" 102 (as the original number and name was, named after the domestic term for the sirocco wind) rather than the Yugo 45/Yugo GV, making Zastava the brand rather than Yugo.

Well, at worst Yugoslav Nuclear program is unlikely to result in a Chernobil 2.0 any time soon, since Westinghouse assisted in building Krško, and they would likely be involved in building other Nuclear Plants ITTL.

In regards to Hydropower, aside from building new ones, a bit of investment and modernization of existing ones could also substantially increase the amount of electricity availlable to Yugoslavia. I do think that Croatia might have the largest number of Hydroelectric plants, but there is an enormous unrealized hydro-potential in BiH, and other Republics too could get a few more. Not to mention that Solar and Wind power can be exploited in various locations all around Yugoslavia, further adding to the MWs availlable.

As for Yugo (or is it Jugo ITTL), a few additions to the basic model could work wonders, and it could still remain a cheap car for the masses. It was not that bad of a car really, and its bad reputation mostly comes from the US, while in Ex-Yu you can still find quite a few of them in running condition. Though, to be fair, I do recall riding around in one which would, upon reaching some 50km/h, start to vibrate terribly.... Hopefully, ITTL, bit better quality control, a higer degree of end-product quality, and Yugoslavia could end up with something (very) broadly comparable to Golf I. Hopefully, unlike its namesake wind, TTL version will not cause too many headaches.

I'm just going to nod my head as though I'm fully aware of the suggestions and implications you've made, yes, yes.

But to be more serious, I suppose it does make sense that things could repeat as per OTL if we have the move towards non-alignment, and continued shifts towards adopting NATO cartridge.

Well, TBH, I do like guns quite a lot, and I tend to go a bit overboard. But, I do have a rough Timeline if just how firearms could develop, if Yugoslavia turns more towards the West in later periods of Cold War.

• 1945-1950ies- M24/47/48 Rifles and MG42/M53 MGs, standard cartridge being the 8mm Mauser.
• 60ies-early/mid 80ies- Adoption of 7.62x39 intermediary cartridge, production of domestic variants of both SKS and AKM, while keeping M53 in service as HMG.
• 80ies onwards- Adoption of 7.62 NATO, Rechambering of M53, perhaps a variant of M84 in 7.62 NATO is adopted, something like M90 (AKM in 5.56) comes into service a bit earlier.

Ooo, info dumps! Exciting!

The beginning section on the legislative developments regarding the arms/defense industry is fascinating, and it makes me wonder whether we'd see an exact repeat of it TTL, if only because they are important to national security. But it does give a clear show of what were the priorities and interests in this area OTL, as well as capabilities, a good base for speculation TTL. Rather important stuff!

I wonder if the point of electronics and guidance technologies might shift TTL with the removal of a major economic crisis, and further leanings towards the West (reminds me of the memetic point of Japan I had mentioned, though really, it isn't like something can't be done about that). Same goes for the point brought up on antitank systems.

But yeah, the point on arms exports should be taken into account, not only in regards to the economy, but also when regarding foreign affairs. The info you shared mentions the ethical issue of Yugoslav weapons sales to troubled regions, and it wasn't merely just an issue with citizens - it was a pain in the eyes of the US and the USSR too, which gives them all the more reason to act subversively (a point which I'm not even sure could be changed if Yugoslavia leaned more westwards after becoming non-aligned).

Well, if more advanced electronics are sorted out, Yugoslavia could manage to keep its arms industry more competitive, especially if things like guidance packages and the like could be produced domestically. Not to mention electronics for the domestic civilian consumption, and while it might be a step to far for Yugoslavia to produce a PC, I will not give up hope (you would not give me a nuke, so I will pen in Sutjeska as a name for first Yugoslav PC ).
---------
Also, I do wonder how will YPA develop, especially with no/weakened TO, and with somewhat larger involvment with the Western nations. We could see Brigades replacing Divisions somewhat earlier then IOTL, though they are likely still sizeable Brigades (15k men) as in Plan Jedinstvo, but perhaps they go with somewhat smaller Brigades, more in line with what Serbian Army uses today, 10-11 Battalion Brigades?

Though, I do hope to see some Croatian representation here, as the YPA goes through the reorganization. Petar Stipetić should definitely see some screen time, he was one of the few decent men at the time, not to mention his work on the Organization of Corps with Reduced Numerical strength, which does sound compatible with YPA reorganizing into Brigades.
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All from me for now, I do hope we will see TL starting some time soon, keep up th good work.

 

[Damian0358]

Well, TO might yet emerge, and if its much weaker and centralized arrangement ITTL, financial and political impact of its existance and eventual disbandement could be minimal. But, nevertheless, it could be a valuable tool in the Federalist arsenal, especially if they manage to push through a better economic policy by agreeing to a TO much reduced in scope compared to OTL.

Well, TBH, I do like guns quite a lot, and I tend to go a bit overboard. But, I do have a rough Timeline if just how firearms could develop, if Yugoslavia turns more towards the West in later periods of Cold War.

• 1945-1950ies- M24/47/48 Rifles and MG42/M53 MGs, standard cartridge being the 8mm Mauser.
• 60ies-early/mid 80ies- Adoption of 7.62x39 intermediary cartridge, production of domestic variants of both SKS and AKM, while keeping M53 in service as HMG.
• 80ies onwards- Adoption of 7.62 NATO, Rechambering of M53, perhaps a variant of M84 in 7.62 NATO is adopted, something like M90 (AKM in 5.56) comes into service a bit earlier.

Also, I do wonder how will YPA develop, especially with no/weakened TO, and with somewhat larger involvment with the Western nations. We could see Brigades replacing Divisions somewhat earlier then IOTL, though they are likely still sizeable Brigades (15k men) as in Plan Jedinstvo, but perhaps they go with somewhat smaller Brigades, more in line with what Serbian Army uses today, 10-11 Battalion Brigades?

Though, I do hope to see some Croatian representation here, as the YPA goes through the reorganization. Petar Stipetić should definitely see some screen time, he was one of the few decent men at the time, not to mention his work on the Organization of Corps with Reduced Numerical strength, which does sound compatible with YPA reorganizing into Brigades.

Definitely could be a valuable tool in that regard!

And in regards to military stuff, I'll just continue to nod, smile and wave, yes, yes.

Well, if more advanced electronics are sorted out, Yugoslavia could manage to keep its arms industry more competitive, especially if things like guidance packages and the like could be produced domestically. Not to mention electronics for the domestic civilian consumption, and while it might be a step to far for Yugoslavia to produce a PC, I will not give up hope (you would not give me a nuke, so I will pen in Sutjeska as a name for first Yugoslav PC ).

Well, it isn't as though we didn't have a home computer market and what not, but the first majorly successful one aside from the Galaksija could be known as the Sutjeska, especially if somehow we've got folks that were formerly involved in the nuclear program getting involved and calling it that for kicks. Though, earnestly, if we do see a planned capital manifest in Bosnia, the growing industries in the area might inspire someone to try their hand at it and naming it after the Battle of the Sutjeska, because symbolically its production timeline was comparable to it.

Though the thought of PC-8800 and PC-9800 series computers seeing a release outside of Japan in Yugoslavia has my heart going doki doki, especially with the distribution of unlicensed copies for sale likely inspiring translations... no, no, get the memery out of your head, it isn't going to happen... Same goes for Hisashi Sakaguchi's Ishi no Hana seeing release, because what better way to symbolize better Yugoslav-Japan connections TTL than with a manga about WW2 Yugoslavia, and set in Croatia too... TTL's Western Balkans Cooperation Initiative...

Well, at worst Yugoslav Nuclear program is unlikely to result in a Chernobil 2.0 any time soon, since Westinghouse assisted in building Krško, and they would likely be involved in building other Nuclear Plants ITTL.

In regards to Hydropower, aside from building new ones, a bit of investment and modernization of existing ones could also substantially increase the amount of electricity availlable to Yugoslavia. I do think that Croatia might have the largest number of Hydroelectric plants, but there is an enormous unrealized hydro-potential in BiH, and other Republics too could get a few more. Not to mention that Solar and Wind power can be exploited in various locations all around Yugoslavia, further adding to the MWs availlable.

As for Yugo (or is it Jugo ITTL), a few additions to the basic model could work wonders, and it could still remain a cheap car for the masses. It was not that bad of a car really, and its bad reputation mostly comes from the US, while in Ex-Yu you can still find quite a few of them in running condition. Though, to be fair, I do recall riding around in one which would, upon reaching some 50km/h, start to vibrate terribly.... Hopefully, ITTL, bit better quality control, a higer degree of end-product quality, and Yugoslavia could end up with something (very) broadly comparable to Golf I. Hopefully, unlike its namesake wind, TTL version will not cause too many headaches.

Fair point! Westinghouse being the one assisting might prove beneficial to a lean westwards, thinking about it.

That point on "enormous unrealized hydro-potential" in Bosnia and Herzegovina could be beneficial to the concept of a planned capital in the region, especially depending on where exactly the move is made, especially when paired with solar and wind power. And briefly on this too, the move to a planned capital might impact Belgrade's growth, because while Novi Beograd is bound to happen, same with Zemun's absorption, how far will Belgrade expand north of the Danube into Pančevački Rit? Or if it does expand as north as it does OTL, could the introduction of more hydropower in the area result in it being its own municipality (ala the OTL Dunavski Venac proposal) instead of just being a big chunk of Palilula? Do Lazarevac and Mladenovac not become part of Belgrade TTL? Grocka, Obrenovac, Sopot and Barajevo I could still see becoming part. Does the shift from Belgrade to the theoretical planned capital result in Belgrade losing its unique autonomous region status? Does the shift prompt other cities in the area getting some extra prominence TTL due to Belgrade not being as prominent, like Pančevo, and Smederevo (please for the love of god, we need more restorative/conservationist work done to the fortress there)? And for the love of all that is holy, does Belgrade finally get a metro? You can bring the trams into the 21st century with a metro too, Prague has done it!

Calm down... calm down... but yeah, nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, wind, there's much potential here to be had!

Yeah, TTL, I could definitely see circumstances allowing for the Yugo 45, especially since by the 1980s things should be doing well enough to permit it. And the mention of the Golf I is kind of apt, since around the same time, Volkswagen actually had their own series of cars, the Scirocco, named after the same wind. If people catch on, you could possibly see comparisons being made, which might not turn out favorably for the Jugo. But yeah, I'd stick with the original name, Zastava "Jugo" 102, for TTL, because perhaps they wouldn't see the need to make themselves sound more international, and thusly, more attractive to customers abroad. How would the Jugo sell in Japan, considering the whole vehicle size classes and dimension regulations dealio? Stop it, you.

All from me for now, I do hope we will see TL starting some time soon, keep up th good work.

Well, I don't know if we'll see a TL soon from my end. I have my own work to do in regards to my studies (and in turn, research for them), and while we've done much speculation, we still haven't exactly named any more figures aside from Aleksandar Ranković, whom we could eliminate from the list of post-war Centralists. While Ranković's death could make for a nice set piece/starter for the TL, as one example of many of those who died (and naming those who survived, like let's allow Anđelija "Anđa" Ranković to live, as one example), we still need to figure out who exactly can die for the purposes of weakening the Centralists, because then comes the hard part - deciding who to kill, as to ensure that the Partisans still win and maintain the influence they had by the time the Soviets rolled around, gave the Partisans a thumbs up in Belgrade, and then left for Germany. Because if we kill too many (without suitable replacements, whether it be someone who survived OTL or survives TTL), we might just accidentally cause a domino effect that messes up everything, and renders all this discussion pointless.

That requires its own set of research, and I'm not in the position to do it. Hopefully this discussion inspires someone else to do so... I'd be willing to help with that, as much as I can at least, being a Serb and all...

 

[Damian0358]

Hello! It's been slightly over a year since this thread has received any discussion, but for anyone still interested, I'd like to share some of the private discussion Triune and I had way earlier this year, continuing on from the topic. I think they add some crucial elements that someone looking back might be interested in!

With saner economic policy, the Self-Management could work, if the proposals for the Socialist Market Economy are pushed through, thus forcing various companies to compete on a "free" market of sorts, if still somewhat controlled by the State. It could mean that Yugoslav economy of TTL 1980s is going to be miles ahead of its OTL counterpart, and economic prospects of Yugoslavia as a whole would be hugely different.

With stronger economy, and stable political situation, Yugoslavia would certainly become a prime candidate for European Union, and it is very likely that it could enter in it at the roughly same time period as the Slovenia did.

I myself also aren't sure entirely on the economic aspects either, though what you say makes sense. A proper timeline would need to investigate all the factors though. However, I personally don't think Yugoslavia would join the EU though, they'd be an EFTA member more (since TTL it could be convenient for the EFTA to absorb the CEFTA, once all its members join the EU, though I don't know what the logistics of that may entail).

With Centralist faction weakened, both in power and membership, Federalists do seem set to dominate KPJ and Yugoslav politics, although it should also be considered that we could also see some sort of a split within Federalists. The split could manifest itself by having Liberal or Conservative (perhaps some people who were OTL "softer" Centralists) wings of the faction, or in regards to foreign policy, as Western and Eastern wings, as Yugoslavia is avoiding comitments to either Capitalist West or Communist East, or even all four variants mixed up together.

I have done some thinking and I discussed the premise with one of my friends, and in regards to the economy, he said that he firmly believes that smaller and medium size companies could become entirely self-managed by their workers, the larger industrial concerns could very well end up still controlled by the State to a noticable degree, especially those industries that are going to be considered critical, such as arms manufacture, oil, energy or other utilities. But, with Socialist Free Market concept put into practice, it could very well work, and perhaps allow greater interaction with the economy of the rest of the world, and make at least some Yugoslav firms competitive with their foreign counterparts. One thing that we should also take into consideration is the amount of "light"/consumer goods industries Yugoslavia possesed, and that these goods could be exported to ComPac countries, and perhaps even to the West, damn things might not be the prettiest, but Yugoslav Fridges, Ovens etc. were made to last, no planned obsolesence in Yugoslav planned economy.

In regards to the Yugoslavia and EU, I will have to say that it seems to me that Yugoslavia would not have any other choice TBH. Once Communism falls, and EU starts its slow march East, Yugoslavia could very well end up encircled by EU member states, not to mention that Russian influence is something EU wants to avoid, just look how fast Romania and Bulgaria became members, even though it could be argued that neither were ready for membership. EU may very well speed up the process, overlook some flaws Yugoslavia has, sweeten the deal, all in an effort to deprive resurging Russia from deepening its ties with Yugoslavia. Though, would Yugoslavia demand that one star on the EU flag is Red instead of Gold? All jokes aside, by the time EU memberships is offered/considered, Yugoslavia would have had more or less a decade of economic back-and-forth with Western Democracies, and benefits (real or imagined) would certainly be seen as outweighing the negatives.

Important thing, and one that must be covered (perhaps explained as Federalists giving in to the Centralist demands) is to ensure that 1974 Constitution does not allow for any Republic to leave, unless all other Republics agree beforehand. That greatly lessens the chance of Croatia or Slovenia going their own way, without TOs they have no basis to build an army out of, better economy would pacify many, while liberal and federalist policies would deal with much of the political discontent. With more liberal policies and outlook, it is entirely possible that Croatian Spring never comes about, or if it does (IMHO with TTL Yugoslavia unlikely) it does not see elite of KPH removed, thus creating a core around which independance movement might start from. Hah, I am now thinking about Lepa Brena having a concert in Zagreb ITTL, and "Cultured" people still nagging and complaining about it, and even though they would not have War to use as their main weapon ITTL, I do not see that stopping them (Tisuć' Godišnja Uljudba Itd.) While we are on the subject of TTL 21st century, if you ever write something like this, I do think it appropriate that Yugoslavia at least repeats Croatian success on the 2018 World Championship, or even exceeds it.
Putting aside my wondering thoughts, IMHO it would not be seen as useful or profitable for people of various Republics to push for independance ITTL, as Yugoslavia would be seen as doing well enough as it is, performing what it promised in 1945, ensuring that all various peoples live in peace and prosperity.

Though, will we see Yugoslavia divest itself completely from Communism? I do not think so, and while many Western and Capitalist influences are likely to creep in, "Communism in Yugoslav Manner" could still be going strong, even if in some ways it is closer to Scandinavian Social Democracy, all the while KPJ rules benevolently over all of its Peoples and Nationalities in the Spirit of Brotherhood and Unity.... Frankly, no matter how liberal Federalist might be, I do not see KPJ just giving up its power, not to mention that creeping spectre of nationalism might be suppressed, but I fear never eliminated completely.

Hm, those are some good points. Regarding a split within the Federalists, with the Centralists weakened, it does make sense that said faction might just be absorbed by one of the two Federalist-derived sides. That's absolutely something worth considering, especially when thinking about who lives and who dies.

The economic/industrial details could also make sense, though we'd need to look into how exactly popular those goods were outside of the country. Everything makes sense though.

Obviously making sure the constitution has a hard line when it comes to the right to self-determination is something that needs to be done. It was mentioned in the thread after all! The Croatian Spring not happening is an interesting thought though, same with the other cultural details mentioned.

I feel as though the interplay between Yugoslavia's post-90s internal and external politics would be a deciding factor in whether Yugoslavia is in the EU or not. If Yugoslavia ventures closer towards social democracy, without the KPJ dominating (at least not in the same way it used to), then I could see potentially it joining the EU after being a member of the EFTA for a few years. If Yugoslavia remains closer towards "communism", then for some reason I don't see it likely.

With somewhat more open political discourse, it does seem ineventable that various sub-factions arise within Federalist faction, and even if it manages to completely dominate both KPJ and Republican KP, it stands to reason that there would be quite a difference of opinions, especially in regards to foreign relations and the like. Single party rule does not mean that everybody thinks the same way, and even Federalists will have quite a bit of discussion and conflict on subjects of Republics autonomy, economic policy or status of Kosovo and Vojvodina.

Industry wise, Yugoslavia OTL was well below European standard, it even lagged behind some ComPac countries, such as Hungary, same could be said with exports. Though, if we consider that companies were all controlled by the state, with planned economy in play, already mentioned changes could definitely improve that situation. It would also mean that economy is much less dependant on the country itself, and that state does not have to subsidise failling industries and be forced to borrow money from abroad.

You do have a good point in regards to the EU, but still, considering all changes TTL Yugoslavia would undergo, its Communism could mostly present itself in its Domestic Politics and/or greater protectionism of its domestic Economy.

One thing that constantly bugs me, and what I can not seem to figure out is just how the JNA would look like. Even with 1941 POD, stronger Federalists, Tito is still around, and while we could perhaps decrease or completely avoid TOs being formed, it seems rather certain that Yugoslavia could very well end up with bloated military, much too big for its needs. It is unlikely that we can avoid Conscription, but it could perhaps be reduced to 1 year length earlier, with professional soldiers introduced earlier then IOTL, perhaps somewhere in mid-late 1970s. General reduction in size would also do wonders, but just how big is big enough, while not breaking the bank is the question. I was aiming at around 100-120k ground personnel, in addition to substantial numbers of reservists, which does seem like a decent number, to be availlable by mid-80ies. It may be argued that without TOs, it will be seen as unecessary to hold on to substantial numbers of older equipment, not to mention smaller army in general, and smaller GDP % is spent on military, which would really have some positive effects, in 1980s some 30% of GDP went to military, a massive expense, for what they had and considering the state of economy. They can still have a decent force, somewhat smaller true, but adequate for their needs with "only" 15% of GDP. OFC, this number will go down further, as Cold War ends, and there simply is no need for such a massive expendeture, but even then it is rather likely that military share of GDP is to remain rather high, maybe around 5-10%, if only to keep the domestic arms industries going, and for employment sake.

Also, I have dug a bit around the things Yugoslavian industries produced, and it seems they have managed to hold their own until late 1970ies-early 80ies, in regards to technological refinement, maybe being a few steps behind what West had. They did start to lag behind in regards to consumer electronics, and perhaps greater cooperation with Japan (as you mentioned in the thread) would help with that. Having a decent domestic electronics industries for civilian consumption is extremely valuable, since it would allow for further refinements elsewhere, with substantial impacts on Yugoslav Economic development, not just having PCs in average Yugoslav household. Automotive industry would certainly benefit, as would shipbuilding, as computers would allow for greater efficencies, not to mention the ability to domesticaly produce shipboard navigational computer or engine management system wpuld cut down on price of ship, since there would be less of a need to import expensive foreign made systems. Impact should not be underestimated elsewhere, as bureocracy and economy could be computerized to a degree, with various branches all connected to a single network, and it would allow for a massive increase in efficency and information gathering. Lastly, military industries too could benefit as well, since it would allow for at least some electronical components for military systems to be produced at home, reducing the price of more advanced and complicated pieces of equipment.

Though, TBH, most striking image of decent domestic electronics industry, would be Personal Computers becoming availlable to an average Yugoslav, either at his workplace, school, public library or even at home. Main thing is, that they need to jump in quick, and have the computers in question produced in large quantities and at affordable enough price, so that they manage to do what the Apple II did, make the concept of owning a Computer a reality. Imagine, if you will Galaksija, Galeb or Orao computers, produced in dozens of thousands, and allowing Yugoslavia to step forwards into Digital Age. They need a concentrated effort though, they did have electronics industries, but these were relatively small affairs, cottage industries almost, with pitful output which would have never been able to compete with the Foreign competitors. Output is all, Apple IIs main selling point was not its performance, but its affordability, and if Yugoslavia can have a fraction of the output Apple had, I would say that they are well off. Another important consideration of keeping the price low, is the fact that it could become a valuable export item, especially for the ComPac countries, where its cost would still make it a luxury, but perhaps a affordable one. Though, we need better names, something more glorious and martial, something more Yugoslav for lack of a better term. Something along the lines of Neretva, Sutjeska, Kozara, hell you can name the damn thing Partizan, although if exports are possible, Sava Kovačević or Prvi Sisački Partizanski Odred should perhaps be removed as options from the naming list.

The prospect of having Yugoslavia cooperate more with Japan seems questionable, and I present it as somewhat of a meme idea. In the documents I linked when I did mention it, there did appear to be a sort of Japanese self-interest in having some level of cooperation with Yugoslavia, if only to placate their own socialist/communist parties (or at least, that's what I recall, been a while since I last looked at them). Plus, I don't recall if something was mentioned in those documents for the Yugoslav reasons for cooperating with Japan.

The industrial details, mentioned in your last message and in this one, are rather useful to know. And I do agree that having a decent domestic electronics industry would certainly help in many areas. Another parallel to PCs becoming available elsewhere can be found in the BBC Micro, part of the BBC's Computer Literacy Program, a microcomputer with an emphasis on education, found in schools throughout the UK, which managed to be successful even as a home computer despite its high cost. Yugoslavia had the Pecom 32 and the less-common Tim 011 in the same sort of position at schools, but I don't think they went ever beyond.

Here's a PC name suggestion - the Partizanka. Parallel it to the wartime Partizanka rifles, and symbolize a shift away from war to science.

I did hear about BBC Micro, but I had absolutely no idea about similar Yugoslav projects, it seems almost unreal TBH, looking at it from todays perspective, that Yugoslavia did have an electronics industry of its own, even a small one when compared to foreign projects. But, one can not underestimate just how much of an impact PCs (especially when combined with networks, even local ones) can have on entire society. You may have heard about SSSR plans for a massive computer network, to help with running the economy, and while it is doubtful they could have ever make it work, even just a network to serve as a data storage could help a lot. Name does fit, something along the lines of "Swords into Plowshares", remembering the past deeds, while looking into the future type of thing.

Funnily enough, in the comments of one of RetroManCave's videos, the second part of his BBC Micro clean-up, there's a comment (and replied) which RMC liked, from someone from former Yugoslavia, discussing the very computers I mentioned! Apparently, they are planning on sending the channel a Pecom, so that'd be a fun video to have.

Ah, OGAS, you're referring to? Yes, I've heard of it, Kitov's EGSVC and Federenko's SOFE, though funnily enough I've been hearing about OGAS more lately in the context of one Chinese mobile game, Girls' Frontline (that's a topic in of itself!). But I get your point on networking, that would likely have an impact.

Recently, I had spoken about my father over the recent political developments going on regarding Serbia, Montenegro and indirectly Kosovo, and the topic ended up leaning itself into discussing more general topics related to modern day Serbia and ol' Communist Yugoslavia (among which my father's belief in the shadowy continuation of the Communist system by way of the Socialist Party maintaining the ol' hierarchy, though let's not get into that).

One point my father raised was his opinion that the slow collapse of Yugoslavia began starting from November 1968, with the Albanian nationalist protests in Kosovo, and following that, during the 70s, the worker's strikes that happened in the region, especially related to the thermal power plants. Those power plants, placed there because of the bountiful lignite resources in the region, powered not only Kosovo, but Macedonia, Montenegro and plenty of Serbia (up to where my dad lived, in Loznica). As a result of these protests, power management became such an issue that, in his next of the woods, there would be periods where they would announce that, for two hours the next day, there would be no electricity. And that time span only grew as time went on, especially as appeasement failed, and how following Ranković's reign of terror resulted in a counter-reaction, with local authorities such as the police not stepping in despite Belgrade telling them to do so, resulting in the need to get the federal police (or federal forces, something like that) involved during the 80s, which included Croats, Slovenes and the like who didn't feel the need to be soft on Albanians, and thus the protests calmed down until the 90s approached and they realized the Serbs couldn't rely on the others this time.

After bringing up the nuclear power plant in the west of the country, powering Slovenia, Croatia and half of Bosnia, I asked him what he thought of the potential of such a nuclear power plant being built in Serbia, and if that would've helped in regards to Kosovo. After discussing his opinion on the potential of alternative power sources (with wind only being useful in Vojvodina and otherwise potentially harmful to airborne wildlife, sun not receiving enough support by the government, and water still being preferred as an alternative despite its potential damages to the environment [and folks in some regions being against it due to said damages and how they could impact the sights]), as well as pollution reduction (Belgrade being hit with some serious pollution and inversion these days) and the other issues facing the power grid (specifically the continued reliance on outdated systems and thermal/geothermal power plants, which are hard to update due to the costs), my father pointed another thing out to me: the fear the Communists had of the Serbs.

The fear, to be specific, being that of Serb retribution. As such, much was done to appease the Serbs as to ensure they were on their side, from ensuring the return of at least some to Kosovo, and other things. The Serbs, out of all the groups in Yugoslavia, had suffered the most causalities, both in conflict and in civilian counts (in Croatia, in Kosovo, in Hungarian-controlled Vojvodina and even in the eastern bits controlled by the Bulgarians), and thus he understood why Ranković, intentionally or not, did what he did in Kosovo. The Croats, meanwhile, were in disbelief that nothing came, at least supposedly so. In my father's belief, this emphasis on appeasing the Serbs had a detrimental effect in that it made them miss the potential threat of nationalism elsewhere, and post-Tito's death, the party was ultimately consumed by Serbian nationalism anyway (which adds to his belief that the Socialist Party continues to maintain the hierarchical system of Yugoslavia today in Serbia even with democracy, finding itself in a coalition in power, and if not, those in power get fucked over).

This point on Serb appeasement and fear of retribution, and missing nationalism elsewhere turned to two other topics - the intentionality of where things were built, and Albania. On the former, where which industry was built was intentionally done so as to a) utilize each republic to their fullest potential; and b) maintain a sense of balance. Kosovo as a lignite resource was powerful, but having the power plants there would to some extent ensure Serbia didn't have full control over them. Having a nuclear power plant would've shifted that balance in Serbia's favor, if one was ever built (which my dad doubted, because investing in a nuclear power plant, he believed, wasn't cost-efficient, since you would spent many years building it, then upgrading it after being built because it was outdated, and the costs would've pay for themselves until years after - unlike, say, a hydro plant). On the latter, after Hoxha began his purges in Albania, to eliminate all potential enemies, many fled from Albania, both regular folks in need of food, water, shelter and education, as well as folks from the Communist Party of Albania, who were under threat of being purged. Tito accepted them, and integrated them into Kosovo, with the latter group even joining the party, being integrated further (since it was likely Tito wanted to integrate Albania into Yugoslavia, thus fulfilling Albanian wishes of being united in one country, as proposed in the Kararname of the League of Prizren). But my father's thoughts indicate his belief that, following Ranković, these people were part of the problem in the rise of nationalism in the region, due to doing nothing to help the situation, leading to the whole situation where the police in the region would applaud the workers' protesting and cutting power to many outside of Kosovo despite Belgrade telling them to do otherwise. He even commented on seeing a video of Tito coming to Kosovo to discuss the issue, and critiquing them.

The importance of Kosovo as a power resource puts, at least to me, into perspective one of the many arguments given by some Serbs in Kosovo's attempt to become independent - that of the investments made in the region, developing its industry and, more importantly, its power grid in tandem with Serbia's.

While my lofty goals of eliminating the Centralists and ensuring a more Federalist-dominated party may help, the fact that the Serbs need to be appeased and that the Albanians need to be considered is something that has to be dealt with early on. I do recall I gave some early suggestion on the former, such as having those royal-era colonists also returning to Kosovo, but yeah.