WI President Taft is assassinated during a visit to Mexico?

[jerseyguy]

In 1909, Mexican President Porfirio Diaz requested a summit with US President William Taft in El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. Diaz aimed to demonstrate US support for his run for re-election, and Taft hoped to protect US investments from political instability in Mexico.

The summit was the first US presidential visit to Mexico. During the summit in Ciudad Juarez, US security found and disarmed a man with a concealed pistol who was standing only a few meters away from Diaz and Taft.

If the assassin wasn't discovered in time and either Taft, Diaz, or both were assassinated, how would world history have changed? Diaz's death could have produced an earlier and more chaotic Mexican revolution. Without Taft's death, could Teddy Roosevelt have won the Republican nomination in 1912, leading to a Roosevelt presidency when WW1 breaks out?

 

[lerk]

Roosevelt ran in 1912 because progressives were getting tired of Taft's ostensible conservatism, and were clamoring for Roosevelt to run. Take away Taft at such an early time in his presidency and he might not run.

 

[Simon]

Been watching Sicario?

There she is. The beast. Juarez. You know, 1900s, President Taft went to visit President Diaz. Took 4,000 men with him. And it almost was called off. Some guy had a pistol. Was gonna walk right up to Taft and just blow his brains out. But it was avoided. 4,000 troops! Think he felt safe?

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

What do we know about vice president Sherman? Except that he was in ill health and the last vice president to die in office. He would have died a little earlier probably, meaning that the secretary of state would take over sometime in mid 1912.

 

[SandroPertini98]

Sherman was an honest, polite and stubborn old-guard conservative, known for his integrity and good judgement. He was conservative especially about tariffs. It seems that he and Taft hadn't a good relationship at the beginning, as Taft was a progressive, but, after Taft shifted to right, they and their wives became very friendly.
So probably Roosevelt and progressives will be hostile to Sherman more they were to Taft but if Sherman dies in summer or spring, before convention, it's still possible find a compromise. Acting President Philander Knox was often mentioned as a possible compromise candidate and in this case he could have success. If not Roosevelt could win the nomination and run for a third term.

 

[ND4]

Taft and Roosevelt wouldn't have been able to make up as friends(since I think their friendship was on the rocks at this point/wasn't really repaired until woodrow willson won and roosevelt died a couple years later which is sad in it's own right)and that just bums me out on a personal level : (