alternatehistory.com

Heya folks, working on a potential timeline where this is the primary PoD, I've thought out some vague ideas for what might happen but I'm far from an expert.

In one fell swoop, the Teapot Scandal breaks out and Harding is tarnished by association and Harding's affair comes out, which swings it big time.

In a worst case scenario for President Harding, I have him hemorrhaging votes to both the Democrats and the Progressives compared to Coolidge IOTL. The resulting electoral map sees Davis perform quite well, taking 'back' the border states of Kentucky, Missouri, Maryland and Delaware in addition to Indiana; and squeak out narrow wins in Colorado, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and Oregon.

For La Follette, he takes Wisconsin as OTL, but racks up 82 votes by sweeping the upper Great Plains and California and Washington

However - the state that I'm mostly wondering about is could this flip New York Democratic.

OTL, Davis took just under 30% of the vote there, Coolidge won it with 55% and La Follette took about 15%. Assuming Harding loses a big chunk of support there, could we see a narrow Democratic victory by having 7%~ vote Davis and 15%~ vote La Follette? Resulting in (roughly)

Davis 37%
Harding 33%
La Follette 30%

and swinging the election from a deadlock to a Democratic victory?

Is that too much? A deadlock would probably see Harding take another term (right?), which I have a plan for if that does happen but I wanted some more opinions on what would happen before I dive too far down either path in my writing.
Top