WI: President Dan Quayle

What if President Bush had died a few months after taking office and Quayle became president in mid-1989?

-Would Quayle have raised taxes in 1990 like Bush did?
-Who would he have chosen to be his Vice-President?
-How would he have handled Panama and Saddam's invasion of Kuwait?
-With Quayle being more socially conservative than Bush, would Justice Brennan and Justice Marshall both have tried to hang on until after the 1992 election despite their failing healths?
-How would he have handled the reunification of Germany and the fall of the Soviet Union?
-Would there still have been a recession?
-Who would have been his Democratic opponent in the 1992 (would Cuomo have entered the race in 1991)?
-Would Pat Buchanan still have ran in the Republican primary and would Perot still have ran in the general?
 
-Would Quayle have raised taxes in 1990 like Bush did?
Probably not.

-Who would he have chosen to be his Vice-President?
William Roth Jr. was mentioned. He's interesting because he has a ton of experience and would likely have helped people come in support of Quayle. I would also submit James Baker and Bob Dole as possibilities. H. John Heinz III would have been an incredibly interesting possibility given the potential ramifications (his wife marrying Kerry, avoiding his death, etc)

-How would he have handled Panama and Saddam's invasion of Kuwait?
@Kuwait: I would imagine more or less on the same lines as Bush. To be honest, I think Quayle's national security team would outweigh the President and force him to adapt their take on Kuwait - though this could lead to a larger occupation of Iraq, perhaps.

-With Quayle being more socially conservative than Bush, would Justice Brennan and Justice Marshall both have tried to hang on until after the 1992 election despite their failing healths?
Most likely.

-How would he have handled the reunification of Germany and the fall of the Soviet Union?
More or less stay out of the way and let it happen. In my opinion, Bush didn't actually need to do a whole lot.

-Would there still have been a recession?
Yes, it was more or less set in stone by '89, there wasn't anything Bush didn't do that Quayle would have to prevent a recession. The severity of it could have been different, I suppose.

-Who would have been his Democratic opponent in the 1992 (would Cuomo have entered the race in 1991)?
I don't know that Cuomo wanted to be President. He didn't run in '88 when there was a really weak field and he was on the heels of a strong Convention Address from '84. He again declined in 1992. Maybe he really didn't want to be President.

-Would Pat Buchanan still have ran in the Republican primary and would Perot still have ran in the general?
I doubt it, and most likely. Perot's interest was primarily based around NAFTA which I suspect Quayle would have still pushed for, though if NAFTA gets butterflied away than I think Perot does as well. I wouldn't rule out a serious primary challenge to Quayle though.
 
-How would he have handled Panama and Saddam's invasion of Kuwait?
@Kuwait: I would imagine more or less on the same lines as Bush. To be honest, I think Quayle's national security team would outweigh the President and force him to adapt their take on Kuwait - though this could lead to a larger occupation of Iraq, perhaps.

-How would he have handled the reunification of Germany and the fall of the Soviet Union?
More or less stay out of the way and let it happen. In my opinion, Bush didn't actually need to do a whole lot.

-Who would have been his Democratic opponent in the 1992 (would Cuomo have entered the race in 1991)?
I don't know that Cuomo wanted to be President. He didn't run in '88 when there was a really weak field and he was on the heels of a strong Convention Address from '84. He again declined in 1992. Maybe he really didn't want to be President.

You have solid points, but I have some disagreements with these ones.

Reagan kicked the ball down the road on Panama, but that was really a fight that Noriega got into himself, so I don't see that changing.

If the Gulf War occurs, I could definitely see Quayle going for Baghdad. There's also the case that it's butterflied away due to April Glaspie saying a few different things, or Quayle doesn't push for war--after the invasion, there was no discussion of war among the press, Bush really pushed for it.

There's always some chance that Quayle bungles up something with German unification or the fall of the wall, but I would guess that things are generally the same. Does Quayle effectively destroy Yugoslavia by imposing sanctions on it?

I do see Cuomo running in 1992. He was a frog's hair from doing so IOTL, and with either no Gulf War or one that doesn't end as well, I definitely see President Cuomo. His strong opposition to NAFTA might help keep Perot out too.
 
I think Quayle can just evoke Bush's memory to a solid victory in 1992. The extended occupation of Iraq could pull attention away from the economy.
 
Is it ASB that I think Quayle has a better chance of winning in 1992 than Bush had in OTL?
 
Is it ASB that I think Quayle has a better chance of winning in 1992 than Bush had in OTL?

It all falls on what the economy is. Even if Quayle avoids offending anyone, and doesn't muck up the war, 12 years on Republican control of the White House, and a bad economy will ruin anyone.
 
Quayle might not raise taxes but I see him invading Panama like Bush. aAs for the Persian Gulf War, if he goes to Bagdad then by 1992 there is a quagmire and that is a further strain his popularity. tThe bad economy will defeat him like it did Bush. hHis opponent is likely Clinton. I don't see anything here that would change Mario Cuomo's or Dick Gephardt's mind about running.
 
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