redlightning
Banned
What if during the 1979 Iran Hostage Crisis, the American government attacks Iran and begins a war to rescue those held?
WI: President Carter Attacks Iran During Hostage Crisis
- Thread starter redlightning
- Start date
An actual war (as opposed to a "rescue mission") would be unlikely for three reasons. First, that it would put the hostages in even more danger. Second, that it risked driving Iran into the arms of the Soviet Union. (The new regime's anti-communism doesn't preclude it finding the USSR the lesser evil if the US resorts to actual war and the USSR is their only hope for military counterbalance.) And third, the obvious problems of occupation.
(I assume that this is what you mean by "a war to rescue those held." If all you mean is a rescue mission, then of course there was one.)
(I assume that this is what you mean by "a war to rescue those held." If all you mean is a rescue mission, then of course there was one.)
Rescue mission going hot? Assuming they get (most of) the people out: Carter beats Reagan.
Dropping the 82nd Airborne on Tehran? That gets messier…
Dropping the 82nd Airborne on Tehran? That gets messier…
I disagree. Yes, he gets a big temporary boost in the polls but the election is still several months away and by that time the bad state of the economy (high *and rising* unemployment, high inflation, especially gas prices, farmers outraged by the Soviet grain embargo, etc.) will tell against Carter. Don't forget that Carter's job approval ratings were under 30 percent before the hostage crisis... http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/popularity.php?pres=39&sort=time&direct=DESC&Submit=DISPLAY Also, some Kennedy voters will still refuse to vote for him, and Anderson on balance still hurts him more than Reagan.
I don't say he loses by almost ten points as in OTL, but I still think he loses.
And that is assuming the best. There is another possibility: There were still Americans walking around free in Iran at the time of Eagle Claw! What if Iran just grabs them and makes them the new hostages? Cyrus Vance pointed that out in objecting to the proposed rescue mission:
"I reminded the group that even if the rescue mission did free some of the embassy staff, the Iranians could simply take more hostages from among the American journalists still in Tehran. We would then be worse off than before, and the whole region would be severely inflamed by our action." http://books.google.com/books?id=RH5SZHYfMI4C&pg=PA82
Zbigniew Brzezinski, the leading advocate within the administration of a rescue mission, did pay some attention to this possibility. He argued "that we should consider taking prisoners back with us, so that we would have bargaining leverage in the event that the Iranians seized other Americans as hostages..." http://books.google.com/books?id=RH5SZHYfMI4C&pg=PA86
USA was the 'Great Satan'
USSR, 'Lesser Satan'
Israel, 'Little Satan'
France. 'Mini Satan'
Nah, I don't think Khomeini would go into the arms of the USSR, even if it made sense. Allah would show him the way to victory, and that path wouldn't include the USSR
jahenders
Banned
I can't see an actual war, but he could certainly have said, "I am ordering the launch of bombers, and the preparation of missiles, now. You have 6 hours to acknowledge that you're releasing the hostages and 12 hours to have them safely back at the Embassy, vacate the grounds, and have Iranian security personnel protecting the embassy from any further intrusion. If this is not done, or if the hostages are harmed, our bombers and missiles will arrive and destroy Tehran and key elements of Iranian power. If you survive that, you will be hunted until you are brought to justice, dead or alive."
nbcman
Donor
Not in 1979. The US was not the biggest baddest military force to be feared in the late 1970's as opposed to the 1990s or 2000s. The Iranians would probably resist and the post Vietnam US military would be stuck in another quagmire.
Nope, the US wouldn't have had to put one 'boot on the ground'. Iran didn't want war, they didn't even want to be bombed and the real threat of it would have gotten them released. This isn't ISIS we are talking about, this isn't even 2003 Saddam.
The Mullahs released the hostages immediately after Reagan got into office because he would have bombed them if they didn't and they knew it. As Jimmy said he could have wiped out Iran's oil facilities from the air and was given plans to do so by the Pentagon, but choose peace.
The problem is that was a false choice, because Iran was bluffing as they always do as shown by the second you had a President in office who they actually worried would bomb them.
This episode cost the democrats the Presidency for 12 years.
Dayton Kitchens
Banned
What missiles was the U.S. going to launch at Iran?
It wasn't like we had a bunch of cruise missiles handy back then.
It wasn't like we had a bunch of cruise missiles handy back then.
I can understand why someone would think this, but that's not what happened at all. It's pretty well documented that the hostages were released as part of a larger negotiation, and then held over a few hours to give Carter one final indignity. Reagan didn't play into their decision.
Honestly if they were that concerned about Reagan, they would have released the hostages before the election to help Carter's electoral chances.
No, but had plenty that make the joke weather forecast I heard at that time for Tehran
Very Sunny with temperatures reaching 10,000 degrees
We could use a few AC-130s on offshore Iranian oil platforms, lay a few mines.
Yeah, this may have been how it worked out in Team America world, but the reality is completely different. Carter's administration negotiated the release of the hostages, and it was basically done in exchange for the value in gold of Iranian offshore assets, which were frozen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis_negotiations
Actually, the Mullahs released the hostages immediately after Reagan got into office because he was exactly what they wanted.
They deliberately engineered the fall of Carter and his replacement. They meddled successfully in American politics.
Afterwards, they continued to play Reagan like a fiddle, eventually producing Iran Contra.