WI: POTUS William Jennings Bryan?

Wolfpaw

Banned
Let's say that WJB defeats William McKinley in the 1896 election. What sort of policies does a Bryan administration pursue?

I've heard theories that Bryan may attempt to pass Blue Laws, so perhaps an earlier experiment with Prohibition or some sort of Federal Vice Bureau? The Suffragettes will probably benefit since they now have a sympathizer in the White House.

While WJB was a pacifist, he supported the Spanish-American War so he'll probably take advantage of any cassus belli that happens by.

I do wonder what his fiscal policies would do to the economy. His free silver policies might cause some severe problems, especially if the 16-1 policy that Bryan promoted somehow makes it through Congress.
 
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What happens in the Congressional elections? OTL, establishment Republicans had 55 seats more in the House than the other parties combined. Free coinage of silver at 16:1 might pass the Senate (where establishment Republicans hold a plurality, but Dems+Populists+Silverites+Silver Republicans could combine to outvote them), but it's unlikely to pass the House without a major change in the Congressional election.

If it does pass, it devalues the dollar by about 25% and puts the US on a de facto silver standard while the rest of the world's pretty much settled on a gold standard. The intended effect is a one-time redistribution of wealth from bank investors to debtors, and it would probably work as planned to that extent. All the standard problems with wealth redistribution schemes apply, plus if banks have contracted to pay their depositors in gold rather than just "dollars" in any form (quite likely, since the Greenback period is still in recent memory), but are required to accept silver dollars at face value in repayment of debts, a big wave of bank failures is likely. On the other hand, the US is in a deflationary depression at the time, so a dollar devaluation is likely to improve the employment situation by making the same nominal wages (often locked in by union agreements) cheaper in real terms to employers. OTL, the economy recovered early in the McKinley administration when the Klondike gold rush and the discovery of the cyanide process for refining low-grade gold ore lead to an increase in the gold supply, but this might be accelerated under Bryan.

In the short term, the dollar devaluation would improve worldwide demand for American exports (by lowering the gold price assuming the dollar price stays constant) while raising the prices of imports. In the long term, this effect will fade out as dollar prices adjust, but the effects of having the mostly-silver-backed dollar floating relative to gold-backed European currencies will have a moderate negative effect on foreign trade on both the import and export sides, as well as having a similar negative effect on overseas investment in the US.

But regardless of whether Free Silver passes Congress, one major effect Bryan would have on economic policy all on his own would be to prevent the Dingley Tariff from becoming law. Bryan was a free trader (or at least an anti-protectionist), so he likely would have vetoed any attempt to increase tariffs, particularly to the extent that the Dingley Act did.
 

Deleted member 9338

I am wondering if his Vice President, Arthur Sewall would have curtailed his economic policies.
 
I am wondering if his Vice President, Arthur Sewall would have curtailed his economic policies.

... There's an interesting question.

Bryan had two running mates: Democrat Arthur Sewall and Populist Thomas Watson (Bryan was nominated equally by both the Democratic and Populist Parties). If he won, it would've been close. And Sewall probably wouldn't receive a majority of the VP electors.

So, how would the contingent go? Would the Republican Senate seriously vote in DNC figure, and never-held public office, Arthur Sewall? Or would they vote for the likely second-place figure, Garret Hobart?

The Populists seriously mucked up the election with their "we get our own VP candidate" nonsense.
 
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