WI: Potato reaches Mesoamerica?

[SunKing105]

The potato, the humble spud, developed in the foothills of the Andes, was a major staple crop there. It is way more nutritious and provides more calories per acre than many other staple crops. What if it had reached Mesoamerica in the Pre-Columbian period? The challenge is to get them across the thick jungles of Central America, not prime potato country, so I have 2 possible PODs:

A. The Manteno culture develops sailing earlier, allowing for trade routes along the Pacific coast to eventually introduce it to Mesoamerica, even though maize was more common further north than the Central Andes. This would have other effects as well, possibly leading to the development of a seafaring tradition.

B. A mutant variety of the ornamental nightshade develops an edible root. While technically not a true potato, being a different species, it shares the same genus and has many similarities to the real potato, Solanum tuberosum.

What population levels could the Mesoamericans reach at contact, since highland areas have much higher agricultural yields. The polities in the Valley of Mexico will likely prevent the Aztec rise to power, what butterflies could that have? Would they still be conquered? Even if they still get conquered, the butterflies would be quite large.

 

[Vargulfr]

Could it butterfly the Mayan Collapse? As far as I’m aware the reason for their fall was bad harvests from hard to maintain crops like maize. The sturdy potato could give new breath to their civilization and cuisine.

 

[Lusitania]

It’s hard.

Several papers and articles have suggested that Eurasia civilization was able to grow such much faster and bigger was due to crops and animals through migration and human intervention were able to cross from China all the way to Europe and back.

The dense jungle of Central America and northern South America made it difficult For plants and animals to easily move from one region to another.

What if both potatoes and corn had reached Rio de la plata basin could we of seen an advanced civilization arise there.

I often wonder why we never had an advanced civilization in the rich California or Mississipi areas. As you said could potatoes of provided the additional crop? But would potatoes of been enough of was animal husbandry (domestication of animal of labor plus riding) required?

 

[twovultures]

The potato, the humble spud, developed in the foothills of the Andes, was a major staple crop there. It is way more nutritious and provides more calories per acre than many other staple crops. What if it had reached Mesoamerica in the Pre-Columbian period?

What population levels could the Mesoamericans reach at contact, since highland areas have much higher agricultural yields. The polities in the Valley of Mexico will likely prevent the Aztec rise to power, what butterflies could that have? Would they still be conquered? Even if they still get conquered, the butterflies would be quite large.

Regarding population increases: the estimate I've used for total population increase from an already agricultural population is 12.5%*, roughly the population increase that Europe saw that can be attributed to the potato. However, there is a complication in Mesoamerica-potatoes and maize have roughly the same calories per acre yield. Potatoes do have less of a water requirement, so they may still cause a population increase comparable to what I describe as above in highland areas, but they are not as superior to maize as you may think, especially given that the Mesoamericans have thousands of years of experience in cultivating maize.

Still, having a backup staple crop with same calories but less water required could contribute a lot to political stability in Mesoamerica. This could definitely butterfly away the rise of the Aztecs as they won't be able to exploit conflict like IOTL. By itself this doesn't prevent Cortes' conquest, but it does potentially make it much harder, if as just like the Aztecs before him he exploited political rivalries and divisions. A united front to the conquistador could see his expedition fail, followed by more law-abiding Spaniards coming in and actually respecting their King and Queen's wishes to honor sovereign monarchs.




*This is from the study "The Potato's Contribution to Population and Urbanization" by Nunn and Qian. Credit for crunching the numbers to show that the "25% increase in population growth" equals a 12.5% increase in total population goes to Charles Mann, from his book 1493.

 

[jycee]

Still, having a backup staple crop with the same calories but less water required could contribute a lot to political stability in Mesoamerica. This could definitely butterfly away the rise of the Aztecs as they won't be able to exploit conflict like IOTL. By itself, this doesn't prevent Cortes' conquest, but it does potentially make it much harder if as just like the Aztecs before him he exploited political rivalries and divisions. A united front to the conquistador could see his expedition fail, followed by more law-abiding Spaniards coming in and actually respecting their King and Queen's wishes to honor sovereign monarchs.

This alone is a huge butterfly though. The lower water requirement could give a big boost to the states/tribes in Mexico's northwest - like the Tzintzuntzan - and possibly into the Sinaloan Coast and Altiplano. The desert and mountains are still a huge obstacle to overcome, but the potato - thanks to its relatively easy cultivation - might make it into the American southwest where the larger population and subsequent butterflies would bring about very interesting changes.
As you mentioned, if we assume Cortes makes it in time, he could potentially have a harder time running rampant across Mesoamerica. If a Tarascan state and the tribes in the Altiplano are able to pull a resistance similar to, or greater than the Mayans, in OTL it might just be enough for the Spanish to stay confined in Central Mexico and - as you mention - actually recognize the sovereignty of their new neighbors.

 

[sampleswift]

It’s hard.

Several papers and articles have suggested that Eurasia civilization was able to grow such much faster and bigger was due to crops and animals through migration and human intervention were able to cross from China all the way to Europe and back.

The dense jungle of Central America and northern South America made it difficult For plants and animals to easily move from one region to another.

What if both potatoes and corn had reached Rio de la plata basin could we of seen an advanced civilization arise there.

I often wonder why we never had an advanced civilization in the rich California or Mississipi areas. As you said could potatoes of provided the additional crop? But would potatoes of been enough of was animal husbandry (domestication of animal of labor plus riding) required?

Mississippi: The Cahokian civilization? That seemed relatively advanced.

 

[riggerrob]

They would need extensive coastal trading to bypass the arid coasts of Texas and Southern California. To the East, the Mississippi River Valley is moist enough for potato growing. OTOH, you need to sail up to Monterey or San Francisco before soils are moist enough for cultivating potatoes. Remember that the Los Angeles Basina nd much of the California's Central Valley were arid until massive irrigation projects a century ago.

 

[Lusitania]

Mississippi: The Cahokian civilization? That seemed relatively advanced.

I was looking for Maian. Aztec and Inca advanced.

 

[Revachah]

Cassava is superior to potato and unlike potato you can cook the nutrient dense leaves.

There would be no point bringing it to Mesoamerica.

While I disagree with the term”advanced” First Nations Californians literally altered most of the state through intentional, methodical, repetitive alterations of fire, planting and pruning/weeding various trees, thorbs and herbaceous plants.

giving one crop doesn’t seem that smart nor necessarily useful as we see in the Pacific North West the potato Spanish introduced and traded with populations there were a high valued supplement crop.

 

[Vargulfr]

I was looking for Maian. Aztec and Inca advanced.

Cahokia was extremely advanced culturally.

This was the quality of metalwork they were producing:

And the Mississippi civilizations detail multiple civilizations ranging from as far north as Canada to Louisiana, going as far east as the Georgian coast. They all shared the dense urban settlements, socio -religious mound, a chiefdom and tributary structure of settlement hierarchies and complex metalworking and architectural skill. The only thing in which the Mesoamerica and Incan cultures seemed to be far advanced in comparison to them was in masonry and stone working.

 

[marathag]

if we assume Cortes makes it in time, he could potentially have a harder time running rampant across Mesoamerica.

Would still do so, as the plague bringers from across big water still seemed like the best ally to knock the Aztec down, so a small number of Spaniards, and 200,000 locals were able to do that job.

Potatoes won't give immunity to smallpox. The higher the population density, the faster that spreads

 

[Gwyain]

@Revachah is spot on about Cassava. In the tropics it is vastly superior to the potato and also works quite well into Mesoamerica as well. Sweet potatoes are also native to Mesoamerica and provide further competition. The other big issue the potato has is that it just wasn't a prestigious crop. Potatoes had an important niche in the Andes because they could be grown at high altitude, but once you star going down into the foothills you start being able to grow Maize, which was much more preferred by Andeans. Potatoes operated in the same niche as rye and barley did in the old world, they were grown where wheat wasn't able to be grown as easily for a staple; maize meanwhile assumes the same wheat niche.

So the problem for potatoes spreading is multiple: they aren't prestigious, they don't do great in the tropics, and there's competition already in Mesoamerica with Cassava and Sweet Potatoes.

As far as the Aztecs go, they don't even arrive in Mesoamerica until ~1250 and don't settle in central Mexico till ~1300, there's a host of things that can alter their rise.

 

[pattontank12]

It would be interesting to an alternate America's that had reached something comparative to antiquity or iron age by the time of contact with the old world.

 

[sampleswift]

It would be interesting to an alternate America's that had reached something comparative to antiquity or iron age by the time of contact with the old world.

Some of the ancient American civs (Aztecs, Mayans, etc.) seemed almost at antiquity levels in terms of social complexity except without iron (which only the Inuits had prior to 1492 in the Americas?)

 

[twovultures]

Some of the ancient American civs (Aztecs, Mayans, etc.) seemed almost at antiquity levels in terms of social complexity except without iron (which only the Inuits had prior to 1492 in the Americas?)

I'd say they match Europe in terms of social complexity, and in some fields even exceed them in technology; yes, Europe had better metallurgy (which was very important during the conquest), but the Mayans beat the Ancient Greeks to using 0 as a number.

 

[Gwyain]

I'd say they match Europe in terms of social complexity, and in some fields even exceed them in technology; yes, Europe had better metallurgy (which was very important during the conquest), but the Mayans beat the Ancient Greeks to using 0 as a number.

Indeed. Games like Age of Empires and Civ have conditioned us to think of civilization as a ladder, where there's a clear tech tree where you can tell who is more or less advanced. The reality of course is that civilizations develop organically following there own pressures and environments. Europe certainly had better metallurgy, shipbuilding, and tools of war in general, but is that really what makes a civilization "advanced?"