WI post mongol japan

Hello everyone, I was wondering something for a while, what if the Mongol invasion of japan was succesfull? By many different ways, maybe the mongols start it after the storm that destroyed the invasion force OTL, maybe they bring more numbers, they try one more time after the first desaster, etc. My doubt it how would a post mongol japan look like.

I just want to put here some restrictions, the first is that the mongols must conquer all japan, including kurils, sensaku and hokkaido, the second one is to have the mongols either to kill the japanese royal family or keep them arrested until the end of the mongol occupation, the last one is to have the mongols to try to colonize japan, this last point can be the main reason that result in the mongol collapse later

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A good start is not beginning the expedition when there was obviously going to be a typhoon. Any other time, even the winter, would serve better.
Second may be to simply commit to a third expedition a few decades after, when Japan was in slightly more turmoil.
 
A good start is not beginning the expedition when there was obviously going to be a typhoon. Any other time, even the winter, would serve better.
Second may be to simply commit to a third expedition a few decades after, when Japan was in slightly more turmoil.

Right, but how much time it will take to the mongol rule collapse and what's going to happen after that? Also, with all clans crushed during the mongol era, can a unified japan rises after the fall of the mongols?
 
That requires a good enough POD that not also avoids the typhoon but prevents the Japanese from being able to learn enough to fight back which doomed the 2nd invasion.

Still Mongol forces would have to fight their way through very narrow terrain with adeal of mountain passes.

If there is a victory I could see Japan becoming a Mongol vassal, but nothing too serious at least externally.

Internally that depends on what happens with the invasion. We could see the fall of the Kamakura Shogunate, but perhaps the survival of the Hojo clan. (note they are not related to the sengoku era Hojo) There could even be the possibility of a much earlier restoration of the Emperor if the invasion being successful can be placed at the shogunate's feet.
 
Right, but how much time it will take to the mongol rule collapse and what's going to happen after that? Also, with all clans crushed during the mongol era, can a unified japan rises after the fall of the mongols?

I don't know if we can really say The clan system would be upended,the Shogunate definitely. Yet the OTl fall of the Mongols is not a sure fire thing, Kublai Khan'a son was an able ruler, but things started going downhill when he died without an heir. if that gets butterflied away then we could be seeing at least a longer-lasting Yuan dynasty
 
A lot doesn't sound like the way the Mongols did things. Any "invasion" of the Kurils or Hokkaido will be comparable to Mongol operations in Siberia--just remind the people there who to pay tribute to. Alternatively, if the Japanese government tries to flee there, they might end up going there to remind the natives not to harbour pretenders and such.

Imperial family will mostly survive (kept under house arrest, no doubt), and so will quite a few prominent clans--they need loyal people to run the government.

I've always thought a post-Mongol Japan would be more likely to remain outward looking. You'd upend the entire Japanese mindset at the time and prevent the Japanese mindset that saw the islands as unconquerable from ever developing. This could mean earlier incorporation of Hokkaido and later Karafuto into the Japanese world.

Mongol rule in Japan will collapse whenever the Yuan dynasty looks too weak to keep the Japanese paying tribute. If Japan can say "no thanks" to Mongol demands and believe they are able to crush any invasion that comes their way, then they will do so.
 
Timing and unpredictability is a must.

The Yuan should invade on a fair season, but at the same time, don't let the Japanese know where will they land specifically. Bonus if they invaded when Japan is in a crisis.

Naturally, they won't last. But if they stayed long enough, Japan will not be the same as OTL.
 
How much they can last in the best case scenario?

And what if the royal family get killed by accident? Like a siege weapon fires at the palace for accident during the siege of kyoto?
 
I would be intrigued to see how the cultural exchange would pan out. The reign of Kublai was the high point of an era of moving intellectuals around the empire, the Islamic world receiving Chinese medicine and the sinosphere Arab mathematics etc. I'm not too familar with Japanese history at the time, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Ilkhanate amongst others highly appreciate Japanese metallurgy.
 
How much they can last in the best case scenario?

And what if the royal family get killed by accident? Like a siege weapon fires at the palace for accident during the siege of kyoto?

Do you mean the Mongols? That more depends on how stable China stays. But looking at the lifespan of Chinese dynasties, anything later than the early 16th century is pushing it.

And not all of the imperial family lived in Kyoto, I'm pretty sure. The Imperial clan was big enough that both the Mongols and anti-Mongol faction will be able to find two individuals to back.
 
Do you mean the Mongols? That more depends on how stable China stays. But looking at the lifespan of Chinese dynasties, anything later than the early 16th century is pushing it.

And not all of the imperial family lived in Kyoto, I'm pretty sure. The Imperial clan was big enough that both the Mongols and anti-Mongol faction will be able to find two individuals to back.


Nice nice, so let's make this scenario: The Mongols invade after the Typhoon, they crush most of the clans and occupy Kyoto and then put the imperial family under house arrest, while giving the de facto power to minor collaborationist clans, and then the Mongol retreat in early 16th century at the collapse of the Yuan dynasty

In this scenario, how does japan look after the withdraw?
 
Probably a civil war to fill the power vacuum. But Mongol rule will have Japan avoid the disturbances during the Ashikaga Shogunate and lead to an easier resolution of the problems of the Late Heian period (or solve them with a lot less violence).

That war will probably substitute for the wars of people like Oda Nobunaga. An interesting wildcard is how Christianity might play into this--seems like an easier way to get a Christian Japan (could be of a more Taiping-esque flavour, though) than most PODs. Or it could not and Christianity will still be crushed. After the war, a period of isolation could still happen, but there will be strong voices against it, especially since Yuan remnants or whoever gets hold of China afterwards might find whatever tribute system exists worth maintaining.
 
Probably a civil war to fill the power vacuum. But Mongol rule will have Japan avoid the disturbances during the Ashikaga Shogunate and lead to an easier resolution of the problems of the Late Heian period (or solve them with a lot less violence).

That war will probably substitute for the wars of people like Oda Nobunaga. An interesting wildcard is how Christianity might play into this--seems like an easier way to get a Christian Japan (could be of a more Taiping-esque flavour, though) than most PODs. Or it could not and Christianity will still be crushed. After the war, a period of isolation could still happen, but there will be strong voices against it, especially since Yuan remnants or whoever gets hold of China afterwards might find whatever tribute system exists worth maintaining.

Nice nice :D can this lead to a earlier unification of japan under the banner of the emperor? I mean, the shogun is gone and the strongest clans that opposed the mongols are crushed by this point
 
That depends if there's an emperor like Go-Daigo around. He might have more of a chance than OTL Go-Daigo did, especially if he looks forward and not to the past like Go-Daigo did. But the Mongols would just be making new strong clans to replace the old ones, and new people/families who could have a chance at becoming shogun. But there's also the thought that since the only shogunate at that point was crushed decisively by the Mongols, there just might be a thought to back the Imperial court instead, especially if there's a dynamic ruler around, but the sort of social structure that would produce a shogunate is probably still in place to some extent.

If the Mongols try and bring the Ainu into their tributary sphere, then maybe there's a chance of an earlier Japanese colonisation in Hokkaido since the region would have much more of a tradition of paying tribute to Kyoto (and from there China during the Mongol rule). It would ease the tension in the military about not getting properly rewarded for success in battle, plus allow the creation/strengthening of regional nobles who owe their power to the emperor and no one else. That's not too far out there, since the Mongols had a pretty effective tributary system going on in rather remote parts of Siberia that the Russians effectively took over from Mongol successor states.
 
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