WI: Possible Greek-Turkish War in 1999?

So, we all know that when in 1998 Cyprus ordered two batteries of S-300 missiles from Russia, Turkey threatned to attack Cyprus if the missiles were delivered. At the end, they decided to give missiles to Greece- so they have put them on Crete.
But, what if they didn't do that and continued with deployment of missiles in Cyprus?

Would Turkey attack them? Would Greece enter the war?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cypriot_S-300_crisis
 
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In my humble opinion, the best combustion point for a second Greco-Turkish War is 1974 with the Turkish invasion of Cyprus after the Greek Cypriots tried to join Greece proper.
 
As much as I'd like to say otherwise, they'd lose unless they had Russia or dedicated allies from the start. That being said. there is nothing saying Greek nationalists wouldn't find their way over there to cement "enosis" with their fellow Greeks.
 
Keep in mind that 1999 was the year of "earthquake diplomacy" where the Greeks were among the first to send aid to Turkey after the Izmit earthquake, and the Turks reciprocated after the Athens earthquake, which led to a thawing of relations between the two countries...
 
Keep in mind that 1999 was the year of "earthquake diplomacy" where the Greeks were among the first to send aid to Turkey after the Izmit earthquake, and the Turks reciprocated after the Athens earthquake, which led to a thawing of relations between the two countries...

This.

Honestly, the chance that Greece and Turkey going to war again in 1999 was fairly unlikely, given this plus the ongoing Kosovo War that NATO found itself involved in.
 
So, we all know that when in 1998 Cyprus ordered two batteries of S-300 missiles from Russia, Turkey threatned to attack Cyprus if the missiles were delivered. At the end, they decided to give missiles to Greece- so they have put them on Crete.
But, what if they didn't do that and continued with deployment of missiles in Cyprus?

Would Turkey attack them? Would Greece enter the war?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cypriot_S-300_crisis

No. Not while Nato is bombing Belgrade and a looming invasion of Iraq is right about there. The USA would intervene and halt the conflict.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Lets divide this into

1-air war : over cyprus or will this spill over to turk-greek land border

2-Potential of a land war at the border of turkey and greece ?

3-A second turkish naval invasion of cyprus and will the greek navy respond ?
 
Lets divide this into

1-air war : over cyprus or will this spill over to turk-greek land border

2-Potential of a land war at the border of turkey and greece ?

3-A second turkish naval invasion of cyprus and will the greek navy respond ?

None of them will turn into a real war as I said before, the USA will force both countries to back down. Turkey won't attack Greece or Cyprus anymore and Greece has no reason to attack Turkey either. There was a conflict over some unclaimed rock in the Aegean but both countries won't mobilize for war for some rock.

There is one way to actually get a war and that is if Greece actively starts to purge the Turks of Western Thrace. Enough to kill them. But that is unlikely in a 1999 non-Communist Greece.
 
Keep in mind that 1999 was the year of "earthquake diplomacy" where the Greeks were among the first to send aid to Turkey after the Izmit earthquake, and the Turks reciprocated after the Athens earthquake, which led to a thawing of relations between the two countries...

This.

Honestly, the chance that Greece and Turkey going to war again in 1999 was fairly unlikely, given this plus the ongoing Kosovo War that NATO found itself involved in.

No. Not while Nato is bombing Belgrade and a looming invasion of Iraq is right about there. The USA would intervene and halt the conflict.

Well firstly the OP's date for a possible conflict is likely too late. In OTL the crisis lasted from January 1997 into December 1998. The bombing of Iraq happened in December 1998, the bombing of Yugoslavia was in March - June 1999 and the earthquakes were in August-September 1999.

If the crisis erupts into war that is likely to happen sometime in late 1998, likely before Baghdad starts getting bombed. If not then maybe January 1999 which is before NATO action in Belgrade and could well throw off those operations/plans. Any conflict is likely to be very limited anyway since once turkey strikes at the missiles, its reasons for war now vanish and Greek forces aren't going to be tasked with capturing Istanbul.

The earthquakes are likely to mean that reconcialiation still happens only that it is deeper and more meaningful given the two countries were in a short but destructive conflicf not long before
 
Honestly, the chance that Greece and Turkey going to war again in 1999 was fairly unlikely, given this plus the ongoing Kosovo War that NATO found itself involved in.
No. Not while Nato is bombing Belgrade and a looming invasion of Iraq is right about there. The USA would intervene and halt the conflict.
Greece didn’t take part in NATO bombing of Serbia. In fact, NATO’s actions were super-unpopular with the Greek public:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece–Serbia_relations#NATO_bombing_of_FR_Yugoslavia
NATO's bombardment of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia caused a strong popular reaction in Greece, Prime Minister Costas Simitis sought a political solution to the Kosovo conflict. Greece refused to participate in the strikes against Yugoslavia.

Several polls were conducted, of which revealed that 99.5% of the Greek population were completely opposed to the bombing, with 85% believing NATO's motives were strategic and not humanitarian.[30] 69% wanted U.S. President Bill Clinton tried for war crimes, while 52% opposed the admittance of Kosovo Albanian refugees to Greece.[31] Another poll showed 94% disapproval.[32]

20 prominent Greek judges of the supreme court (Council of State) signed a declaration, where they declared NATO guilty of war crimes.[31] The more dramatic event was a People's Tribunal of over a 10.000 people in Athens, Greece, where the Greek Supreme Court declared president Clinton and NATO leaders guilty of war crimes.[33]

During a C-SPAN discussion in 2005 with General Wesley Allen Clark, the commander of NATO during the Kosovo War and NATO bombings, it was reported that several Greek non-governmental organizations were sending relief supplies in the middle of the bombings, which caused the bombing of certain targets more difficult, the intention of the organizations was to forestall the military action by sending humanitarian aid to the Kosovo Serb enclaves.
Can you just imagine the reaction of the Greeks if just as the coalition aircraft are attacking Serbia, NATO & USA refuse to help Greece in their conflict with Turkey?
Any conflict is likely to be very limited anyway since once turkey strikes at the missiles, its reasons for war now vanish and Greek forces aren't going to be tasked with capturing Istanbul.

The earthquakes are likely to mean that reconcialiation still happens only that it is deeper and more meaningful given the two countries were in a short but destructive conflicf not long before
Yeah, right!

Athens: “Sure Turkey, you just destroyed our brand-new and expensive anti-aircraft defences as our Western allies stood by and did nothing... but hey, what’s a few pranks between friends! Here, have some aid. I’m certain this gesture will not cause any outrage amid the Greek public.” :rolleyes:

If there is any aid exchanged between the two in this ATL, I’d expect it to cause controversy akin to the 2013 Chinese-Philippines aid.
 
I think people are forgetting the Russian aspect of this crisis. Russia explicitly supported Cyprus and Greece once the crisis began to escalate. I think if Turkey strikes then there is probably a quick Russian and Greek retaliation before the U.S. steps in to stop the conflict from escalating further. Depending on how the U.S. resolves the conflict there could be lasting damage to Turkey or Greece's relationship to the rest of NATO.

As a note, I don't think the U.S. would militarily retaliate against anyone for their initial actions. Greece and Turkey are NATO members and Russia would have acted in concert with a NATO member. Additionally, the U.S. can resolve the issue with diplomacy and that is definitely the preferred route at this point.
 
I think people are forgetting the Russian aspect of this crisis. Russia explicitly supported Cyprus and Greece once the crisis began to escalate.
Unless Russia threats to use nukes. It won't amount to much even If it join fighting as it blocked off from Mediterranean,doesn't even share a land border with any of the participants, and the Russian military is still a wreak from the still ongoing chaos of the 1990s.
 
Yeah, right!

Athens: “Sure Turkey, you just destroyed our brand-new and expensive anti-aircraft defences as our Western allies stood by and did nothing... but hey, what’s a few pranks between friends! Here, have some aid. I’m certain this gesture will not cause any outrage amid the Greek public.” :rolleyes:

If there is any aid exchanged between the two in this ATL, I’d expect it to cause controversy akin to the 2013 Chinese-Philippines aid.

A lot of the earthquake aid was private aid sent by Greeks themselves. Mostly because lots of people aren't heartless when they see other people affected by devastating earthquakes.

So if the public is outraged it would have to be outrage with their own actions rather than at the government.


The controversy you referenced even noted this in the very story:


On the streets of Beijing, many seemed to understand the division between aid and politics.

"Personally I don't like the Philippines," one man told me, "we don't have a good relationship with them. But it's not about our relationship with the government, we only need to help the people."

"Politics and charity are two separate things," agreed another. "When we have problems, other countries help us, so we'll help them."

The same dynamics would likely be at play and there have been other instances where lots of shared natural devastation has been a factor (though never the sole cause of course) cooling of tempers between warring sides (the Aceh conflict for instance where the devastation of the Boxing Day Tsunami lead the Aceh insurgents to declare a unilateral ceasefire and for Indonesia to lift restrictons on the area so aid could get in)
 
Unless Russia threats to use nukes. It won't amount to much even If it join fighting as it blocked off from Mediterranean,
This concept comes up in ATLs and I’ve even seen people suggest Turkey do this in real life (i.e.: I’ve read people asking “Well, why doesn’t Turkey just close the Turkish Straights to Russian naval/civilian ships & prevent Moscow from sending military hardware to Syria?”)

What people seem to forget is that thanks to the Montreux Convention there is little Turkey can do (short of going to war) to stop Russia from sending its Black Sea Fleet out into the Mediterranean. So brinksmanship ahoy!
doesn't even share a land border with any of the participants,
Moscow maintains the 102nd Military Base of the Group of Russian Forces in Transcaucasia in Armenia. If matters escalate between Russia and Turkey to the point that you need to “share a land border” for military matters there is this:
In 1997, Armenia and Russia signed a far-reaching friendship treaty, which calls for mutual assistance in the event of a military threat to either party and allows Russian border guards to patrol Armenia’s frontiers with Turkey and Iran.
and the Russian military is still a wreak from the still ongoing chaos of the 1990s.
And yet the mere presence of Russian soldiers and the risk of escalation was enough to dissuade NATO from confrontation at Pristina airport in 1999.
A lot of the earthquake aid was private aid sent by Greeks themselves. Mostly because lots of people aren't heartless when they see other people affected by devastating earthquakes.

So if the public is outraged it would have to be outrage with their own actions rather than at the government.


The controversy you referenced even noted this in the very story:
On the streets of Beijing, many seemed to understand the division between aid and politics.

"Personally I don't like the Philippines," one man told me, "we don't have a good relationship with them. But it's not about our relationship with the government, we only need to help the people."

"Politics and charity are two separate things," agreed another. "When we have problems, other countries help us, so we'll help them."
I like how you conveniently didn’t quote the very next paragraph in the article:
Comments on social media have been much more forceful. One netizen called China's donation "disgraceful[ly]" small, but many more say they are angry that their government is giving any money to the Philippine victims at all.
The same dynamics would likely be at play and there have been other instances where lots of shared natural devastation has been a factor (though never the sole cause of course) cooling of tempers between warring sides (the Aceh conflict for instance where the devastation of the Boxing Day Tsunami lead the Aceh insurgents to declare a unilateral ceasefire and for Indonesia to lift restrictons on the area so aid could get in)
That’s not a comparable situation. Fighting was stopped by Indonesia and the insurgents as both sides were simultaneously impacted by the disaster. If, say, only Jakarta was impacted I doubt the Aceh insurgents would call for a ceasefire.

When thinking about Greek reaction to earthquakes in Turkey after a hypothetical Greece-Turkey war I keep coming back to the Russian Flight 9268 air-crash disaster in 2015 when Ukrainian journalists condemned those Ukrainians who choose to express their condolences to the “enemy nation”.
 
What people seem to forget is that thanks to the Montreux Convention there is little Turkey can do (short of going to war) to stop Russia from sending its Black Sea Fleet out into the Mediterranean. So brinksmanship ahoy!
Expect I am talking about it in the context of a war

Moscow maintains the 102nd Military Base of the Group of Russian Forces in Transcaucasia in Armenia. If matters escalate between Russia and Turkey to the point that you need to “share a land border” for military matters there is this:
Which would result in Turkish forces overrunning Armenia
 
I like how you conveniently didn’t quote the very next paragraph in the article:

I didn't need to. It wasn't relevant. There's always people on social media (and it must be noted it is often a very small set of persons who make a lot of comments) who vehemently complain about any and everything. Most of those people would never have donated anyway (and in some cases if the disaster had taken place in another part of China itself some of these same people would complain about the aid going towards this or that region because of this or that excuse).


That’s not a comparable situation. Fighting was stopped by Indonesia and the insurgents as both sides were simultaneously impacted by the disaster. If, say, only Jakarta was impacted I doubt the Aceh insurgents would call for a ceasefire.

If you say so. Given that the ordinary Greeks who donated to the Turkish victims were not militants nor for the most part members of the armed forces, whether or not a militant group would do something if a disaster affected a neighbouring hostile region can't be a direct comparison, however my example was never a direct comparison, but as stated before, an example of how disasters can cause people in general (and as militants are people too, this includes them as the example referred to militants and a government, with said government not being a set of militants either) to be less hostile towards each other. But for some reason you seem vested in ascribing an extremely malicious character towards average Greeks, so if that's what you believe despite OTL evidence to the contrary then okay.

When thinking about Greek reaction to earthquakes in Turkey after a hypothetical Greece-Turkey war I keep coming back to the Russian Flight 9268 air-crash disaster in 2015 when Ukrainian journalists condemned those Ukrainians who choose to express their condolences to the “enemy nation”.

So, you think that the majority of the people who voluntarily donated to Turkey from OTL will respond in a similar way to Ukrainian journalists as opposed to the ordinary Ukrainians they were condemning? In that example I would think the Greeks who donated would be more like the Ukrainians that the Ukrainian journalists condemned rather than like the journalists. And clearly since the Ukrainian journalists (plural) had to condemn Ukrainians (plural again) over expressing condolences in regards to an air-crash disaster, this means the number of Ukrainians who did so was clearly not insignificant was it? Otherwise how would it be worth even commenting over by the journalists or even make news outside of Ukraine?
 
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