WI: Portuguese victory in the War of the Castilian Succession

Pigs fly?:p

Nah but seriously, the obvious immediate consequence is Aragon is on its own and Portugal and Castile are united. Whether this arrangement stays depends heavily on Ferdinand and Isabella and Alfonso and Joanna all managing to produce children. Assuming they do, we have several interesting developments.

Firstly, no Habsburg Spain. This will likely cause them to focus more on the HRE, since they control both the Netherlands and Austria, and will probably hope to increase their nominal control over the lands inbetween. With this early focus on Germany, I'd say that the Habsburgs have a good chance of uniting it, and perhaps keeping some or all of the Netherlands as a part of it too, though there are certainly no guarantees.

Meanwhile, Castile+Portugal almost certainly doesn't finance the Columbian expedition. Whether this delays the discovery of the Americas depends on whether Ferdinand still decides to give Columbus some old ships, or if Columbus can convince someone else in the absence of Spanish interest. Without him, we likely see the discovery delayed until sometime after the discovery of the cape route to India, however this in itself may go quicker due to butterflies or the resources of the Castilian crown. This would also change the initial discovery from the Caribbean to the coast of Brazil, which might further slow European interest, given the difference in resources in Brazil.

Without Castile, Ferdinand will push even harder for Navarre than in OTL, either for his son by Isabella or himself, and will likely succeed. On the otherhand, he likely doesn't have a strong enough military to take Naples. What could be really interesting IMO is if he both gains control of Navarre, and funds the Columbian Expedition, thus allowing Aragon, a Kingdom now controlling Aragon, Navarre, and all of the major islands in the Western Mediterranean, to get the jump on the colonization of the New World, with Navarre providing the vital Atlantic port to allow Aragon to colonize.

Meanwhile, Alfonso V was very focused on Africa IOTL, and with Castile under his control I'd be shocked if he doesn't complete the Reconquista on schedule. After that, pressing into Africa seems likely, bubt there is also a distinct possibility that Castile is too much for Alfonso to adequately control, leaving both Castile and Portugal paralysed by an unstable monarchy. Also note that Alfonso already has a son by his first marriage, so united Castile and Portugal dies when he does unless OTL's John II of Portugal dies heirless.

Oh, and just to put the cherry on top, we're in time for butterflies to totally reshape England, from surviving Edward V, to victorious Richard III, to Henry VII with multiple sons. No idea what'll happen there, or with the reformation for that matter, but I imagine it will be interesting.
 
Without Castile, Ferdinand will push even harder for Navarre than in OTL, either for his son by Isabella or himself, and will likely succeed. On the otherhand, he likely doesn't have a strong enough military to take Naples. What could be really interesting IMO is if he both gains control of Navarre, and funds the Columbian Expedition, thus allowing Aragon, a Kingdom now controlling Aragon, Navarre, and all of the major islands in the Western Mediterranean, to get the jump on the colonization of the New World, with Navarre providing the vital Atlantic port to allow Aragon to colonize.
Would Portugal-Castille try and stop his acquisition of Navarre? Would France also get involved? If so could they halt Ferdinand and keepe Navarre independent?

Also surely Ferdinand wouldn't be able to afford such an expedition, even if he could, would he? I mean the Gibraltar Strait would now be controlled by Portugal-Castille, unlike IOTL where both Spain and Portugal had easy access to the Atlantic, now Aragon has no access to it unless through that small strait.
Meanwhile, Alfonso V was very focused on Africa IOTL, and with Castile under his control I'd be shocked if he doesn't complete the Reconquista on schedule. After that, pressing into Africa seems likely, bubt there is also a distinct possibility that Castile is too much for Alfonso to adequately control, leaving both Castile and Portugal paralysed by an unstable monarchy. Also note that Alfonso already has a son by his first marriage, so united Castile and Portugal dies when he does unless OTL's John II of Portugal dies heirless.
Couldn't Alfonso V deny John II the inheritance? Or perhaps we could see his son who inherits Castille launch an attack on Portugal to take it? I'm unsure though, and it might be easier to say that, during the revitalised Reconquista, John II dies.
 
Would Portugal-Castille try and stop his acquisition of Navarre? Would France also get involved? If so could they halt Ferdinand and keepe Navarre independent?

Also surely Ferdinand wouldn't be able to afford such an expedition, even if he could, would he? I mean the Gibraltar Strait would now be controlled by Portugal-Castille, unlike IOTL where both Spain and Portugal had easy access to the Atlantic, now Aragon has no access to it unless through that small strait.
Although Navarre did not have an atlantic port by the fifteenth century, it had plenty of claims to them, so it might be able to provide Ferdinand with such, by giving him a claim on either a French or Castilian one, which he might be able to win either through fighting or simply purchasing it. Without the port, he may still fund the expedition, given that he has far less expences than in OTL even if his income is also reduced, but Aragon's colonizing capabilities will be very limited, so a scenario in which he can claim an Atlantic port by way of Navarre is the one that I find most interesting.

Couldn't Alfonso V deny John II the inheritance? Or perhaps we could see his son who inherits Castille launch an attack on Portugal to take it? I'm unsure though, and it might be easier to say that, during the revitalised Reconquista, John II dies
John could certainly predecease his father, but that isn't all that likely given that he's nearly twenty by the PoD. Disinheriting him would be incredibly unlikely, given that from Alfonso's perspective the lands are all still staying within his family, and John will almost certainly be his only adult son at the time of his death. Another possibility is that Alfonso and Joanna don't produce issue, and John makes a legal case for marrying her after his father's death, thus keeping the union alive. Joanna's marriage to Alfonso was never recognized by the Pope in OTL, so it could be legally argued that they weren't married if Alfonso still doesn't bother with obtaining the Pope's permission at a later date ITTL.
 
Although Navarre did not have an atlantic port by the fifteenth century, it had plenty of claims to them, so it might be able to provide Ferdinand with such, by giving him a claim on either a French or Castilian one, which he might be able to win either through fighting or simply purchasing it. Without the port, he may still fund the expedition, given that he has far less expences than in OTL even if his income is also reduced, but Aragon's colonizing capabilities will be very limited, so a scenario in which he can claim an Atlantic port by way of Navarre is the one that I find most interesting.
That's assuming Ferdinand would get Navarre, he might not. If he loses the war for Castile, we might see him unable to conquer Navarre.

Even so, I doubt anyone would sell an Atlantic port to him, and I doubt he could conquer one. He could claim some land in the Americas, but he'd have a very tough time keeping them when Portugal-Castille could easily just stop his ships from getting past the Mediterranean.
 
That's assuming Ferdinand would get Navarre, he might not. If he loses the war for Castile, we might see him unable to conquer Navarre.

Even so, I doubt anyone would sell an Atlantic port to him, and I doubt he could conquer one. He could claim some land in the Americas, but he'd have a very tough time keeping them when Portugal-Castille could easily just stop his ships from getting past the Mediterranean.
Navarre had two royal heiresses in this period, so I think personal union is most likely. As for taking a port later, conquest from Castile at a later date seems the most likely. Alfonso might find himself ruling over a very unruly population in Castile, making his kingdom into something of a paper tiger, or a war between OTL's John II and Alfonso's alt son could open the door. I still say that to France, the sale of a bit of Basque territory, perhaps for aid in the Italian wars of Charles VIII, is a distinct possibility.

Of course, none of these is as easy for Aragon as doing nothing, but I dare say they are all more interesting.
 
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