What if we saw a weakened Ethiopia after the Abyssinian-Adal War become a Portuguese protectorate and/or colony? What effects might there be on Portugal and Ethiopia?
What effects might Portuguese colonization yield on Ethiopian culture?I can maybe see the Ethiopian emperors swearing fealty the same way the Malayali princes did: retaining their sovereignty in all matters except commercial, conceding mastery of the ocean to the king of Portugal, with the preexisting indigenous merchant fleets continuing to operate albeit under cartaz certification.
What effects might Portuguese colonization yield on Ethiopian culture?
What if we saw a weakened Ethiopia after the Abyssinian-Adal War become a Portuguese protectorate and/or colony? What effects might there be on Portugal and Ethiopia?
It has to be a joint desire, an alliance that brings the two countries together.Not happening. Ethiopia is too mountainous and Portuguese resources are not enough to subdue Ethiopia in the 16th to 19th century.
Why would Ethiopia want to expand into southern Sudan and Somalia?A successful protectorate would allow Ethiopia to displace Arab/Muslim groups along coast even maybe expand into southern Sudan and Somalia.
Portuguese could retain the islands in the Red Sea with few city enclaves. Constant threat by Egypt and Ottoman Empire would be catalyst for arrangement to continue to the 19-20 century.
The biggest threat might be scramble for Africa.
Could a process where Portugal establishes a permanent enclave in the Eritrean islands/coast work so that we see Ethiopia gradually become a Portuguese protectorate over time?Not happening. Ethiopia is too mountainous and Portuguese resources are not enough to subdue Ethiopia in the 16th to 19th century.
How could we get that? Having Ethiopia be completely occupied by Adal and then having Portugal liberate her?It has to be a joint desire, an alliance that brings the two countries together.
Why would Ethiopia want to expand into southern Sudan and Somalia?
Perhaps the Portuguese begin to expand into Ethiopia proper by the time the early 19th Century comes around.
How come?
Could a process where Portugal establishes a permanent enclave in the Eritrean islands/coast work so that we see Ethiopia gradually become a Portuguese protectorate over time?
How could we get that? Having Ethiopia be completely occupied by Adal and then having Portugal liberate her?
Why would Ethiopia want to expand into southern Sudan and Somalia?
Perhaps the Portuguese begin to expand into Ethiopia proper by the time the early 19th Century comes around.
How come?
Could a process where Portugal establishes a permanent enclave in the Eritrean islands/coast work so that we see Ethiopia gradually become a Portuguese protectorate over time?
How could we get that? Having Ethiopia be completely occupied by Adal and then having Portugal liberate her?
As I said: zero chance for that to happen before the 1850s.
Portugal has nothing but Slaves to get from Ethiopia which is a long time travel to Brazil and much better to get from Angola.
And the help for Ethiopia was largely to keep the Ottomans busy while doing their "Christian Duty". Portugal won't stay in the Horn for long. Unless massive Gold reserves are found but then Ethiopia does not even need Portugal.
Portugal doesn't need to subdue Ethiopia, that's obviously out of the question. Historically speaking, what is considered a protectorate in these circumstances could be acquired with relatively little adjustment to OTL.
I think you overestimate the importance of purely commercial prospects to the Portuguese in the 16th century Indian Ocean. IOTL Cristóvão da Gama led hundreds of Portuguese soldiers into Ethiopia to combat the Sultanate of Adal with virtually nothing to gain and for no other reason than to protect the Christian Ethiopian state, which was (wisely) seen as a regional ally. Had the Portuguese been able to get the horses captured at the battle of Jarte to da Gama's encampment before the battle of Wofla (or if firearms and reinforcements had not been granted to Adal by their Yemeni allies just in time), da Gama and the majority of his musketeers may very well not have been captured and killed, and Sultan Gragn may have been defeated even earlier. This could easily have lead to a permanent Portuguese presence in Ethiopia, even if its a small one. A few hundred Portuguese could very well be all that is needed to more closely align the interests of the Ethiopian court with those of Lisbon.
It was pretty much luck that a bullet hit Ahmed ibn al ibrahim.That is the problem. A few hundred musketeers would do well against Somali's who are not using the same weapons. But when the Adal Sultanate gets help from the Ottomans with a few hundred/thousand soldiers and weapons it does not go well.
At best you get an alliance between Portugal and Ethiopia until Portugal loses posts in the Indian Ocean.
And I fail to see how it is wise to see Ethiopia as a regional ally as they were only allied until the Adal Sultan was defeated. The alliance lasted until the mid 16th century and was non-existent until 1935 when Italy conquered Ethiopia. So enlighten me, because I really do not understand.
By the way I am not sarcastic if you assume with what I wrote... :/
It was pretty much luck that a bullet hit Ahmed ibn al ibrahim.
Well not being lucky in history is also ASB-ish.
Sometimes I wish a bullet did not hit my namesake in the battle of Slankamen so Hungary would be reconquered. But I guess you can't have anything.
BUMP. As a result of any potential de-facto Portuguese protectorate over Ethiopia, how better off would she be?