What would have been the ramifications for both Portugal and Brazil if the fleet was attacked by French ships, and the royal court was either sunk or captured?
The choice would probably fall on a minor sub-branch of a cadet branch of the Braganças.Let's see...
The Portuguese convoy was well escorted by the British Royal Navy and I doubt the French could pull off something like that. Assuming they did...
I'd say Brazil is going to follow a similar path to OTL Hispanic America. They may respect the central viceregal authority at first but I bet some Brazilian provinces will eventually secede.
Additionally - Brazil as a whole and Rio de Janeiro in particular - will not benefit from the cultural and economical boost that came along with the status of headquartering the Portuguese Empire for more than a decade.
As to Portugal, eventually Portuguese and British troops will liberate it more or less as per OTL. If the royal family is just captured, well... they'll just return when Napoleon is defeated.
If the entire fleet is sunk than that's a bitch. Not only do the Braganças die out but also most of their Portuguese relatives like the Cadavals die too.
The Cortes will have to find a way to (s)elect a suitable prince to the throne. No republic for now, of course...
I'd say Brazil is going to follow a similar path to OTL Hispanic America. They may respect the central viceregal authority at first but I bet some Brazilian provinces will eventually secede.
As to Portugal, eventually Portuguese and British troops will liberate it more or less as per OTL. If the royal family is just captured, well... they'll just return when Napoleon is defeated.
If the entire fleet is sunk than that's a bitch. Not only do the Braganças die out but also most of their Portuguese relatives like the Cadavals die too.
The Cortes will have to find a way to (s)elect a suitable prince to the throne. No republic for now, of course...
The Portuguese royals fled on a Royal Navy fleet. They fled at a time when the French practically had no operating fleet, because they'd lost virtually every ship that was at Trafalgar and all the other ones were mothballed in port, unable to resist the British blockading them in. The Portuguese royals could've swam the Atlantic and they'd still never have seen an enemy ship.
The choice would probably fall on a minor sub-branch of a cadet branch of the Braganças.![]()
The Portuguese royals fled on a Royal Navy fleet. They fled at a time when the French practically had no operating fleet, because they'd lost virtually every ship that was at Trafalgar and all the other ones were mothballed in port, unable to resist the British blockading them in. The Portuguese royals could've swam the Atlantic and they'd still never have seen an enemy ship.
Do you think the Portuguese would have risked it had the French Navy still been operating? If so, that could be our POD.
The junior branches of the Braganças (the Cadavals and the Lafões) were all on board!
With the legitimate descendents of King João IV dead, the only ones that can claim to have all-legitimate all-Portuguese connection to Portuguese royalty are those descending from Infanta D. Isabel (1459-1521). The Cadavals headed this branch but ITTL they're dead. A large part of the high nobility was on board and it would be a hard exercise to find someone that descendend from Infanta D. Isabel that wasn't! There must certainly be somebody but... what a mess.![]()
As far as I know the only descendents of the Dukes of Lafões in 1807 were two young girls (the daughters of João Carlos de Bragança e Ligne de Sousa Tavares Mascarenhas da Silva). And I can't find their names in the list of passengers of the fleet: http://www.serqueira.com.br/mapas/cortebr-anexo.doc
You said it right.The junior branches of the Braganças (the Cadavals and the Lafões) were all on board!
With the legitimate descendents of King João IV dead, the only ones that can claim to have all-legitimate all-Portuguese connection to Portuguese royalty are those descending from Infanta D. Isabel (1459-1521). The Cadavals headed this branch but ITTL they're dead. A large part of the high nobility was on board and it would be a hard exercise to find someone that descendend from Infanta D. Isabel that wasn't! There must certainly be somebody but... what a mess.![]()
Uau! Great source!As far as I know the only descendents of the Dukes of Lafões in 1807 were two young girls (the daughters of João Carlos de Bragança e Ligne de Sousa Tavares Mascarenhas da Silva). And I can't find their names in the list of passengers of the fleet: http://www.serqueira.com.br/mapas/cortebr-anexo.doc
Regarding Portugal, It would be difficult to have a Republic in that period. Republican support was minimal.OK, let's say in this scenario - how likely would it be for a Portuguese Republic to come about? One which is not allied to Napoléon but retains its alliance with the UK, obviously.
It would be difficult to have a Republic in that period. Republican support was minimal.
The only way I could see during that period is if there was no suitable candidate for the throne, and foreign extreme circumstances forced some kind of compromise.
Without the 'Imperial Period' to transition in a good, democratic system (respect for civil liberties, legislative framework, etc etc) into Brazil I can expect that a Republic before the Empire would be messy, alot more like what happened in the Spanish American republics.
Or rather - Brazil would be divided into different countries.