WI Portuguese Colonial War is successful?

Hello gents!
Time for another round of intellectual discussion/Timeline Idea contribution!

So, here it is: In The Portuguese Colonial War (1961-1974), the Fascist Portuguese Republic under Salazar fought a hard war against te African Independence Movement( MPLA, UNITA, FNLA, PAIGC, FRELIMO) who were supported by the USA, USSR, People's Republic of China, and their various Satellite States (Including Cuba in a major role). Assisting Portugal were the crack military forces of the Republics of South Africa and Rhodesia.

Here's some basic intel for you:
  • Portugal had a powerful colonial presence due to the head start that it had compared to the other colonial powers.
  • Salazar, while a Fascist dictator, viewed his people in a largely paternal sense and wished for a 'multiethnic state'.
  • Because of this view, the native inhabitants of the Portuguese Colonies in Africa shared equal rights under thelaw with their white counterparts.
  • The local population of the colonies were pretty well educated, with a relatively large number of colleges and universities.
  • The Portuguese Military, while poor in performance and morale at the war's beginning proved totally successful in every colony except guinea.
So, one might ask, why did the Portuguese lose?
Here's why:

  • The US, PRC, and Soviets provided heavy amounts of supplies and soldiers to the Independence Movement (weapons in particular).
  • While the Independence Movement troops' US and Soviet supplied tanks were largely ineffective in the African landscape, the RPG caused massive problems for the Portuguese.
  • The Portuguese were seen as Fascist relics from WWII, and were criticized for not picking a side in the Cold War (Like South Africa and Rhodesia).
  • MOST IMPORTANTLY-In 1974 the Soviet Union was able to raise a Coup in Lison against Salazar in Lisbon, leading to a radically liberal government taking power and removing its claim on the colonies.
So, the question is, what if the Soviet coup was unsuccessful in 1974 and only led to the independence of Guinea Bassau (where they largely lost the war)? In the future the Portutguese could have reestablished the 'pink land', their goal of owning everything from Angola to Mozambique. If so, they could have played a large role in assissting their ally Rhodesia in its war against Robert Mugabe, probably resulting in a victory for Rhodesia.

So, what would the result be of a power bloc in southern Africa consisting of Portugal, Rhodesia, and South Africa? Portugal was a member of NATO, so neither the USSR, PRC, or USA could declare war on them without causing the old Cold War ClussterF**k.

What do you think the implications of this would be?

P.S. I'm writing TL on this, so offer any suggestions!

Start discussion:
NOW! ;)
 

MacCaulay

Banned
The South Africans would be a lot less pressured in South-West Africa Territory/Namibia.

The Cubans might have a harder time finding an in there, as well.
 

Germaniac

Donor
This would have HUGE repercussions on Rhodesia. The Rhodesians were largely successful in the Bush Wars until the Portugese Colonies collapsed. With their fall the ZANU and ZAPU no longer have a safe haven from which to launch, this allows the Rhodesians to focus directly on stomping out the revolutionaries at their source (which will be pushed into Rhodesia). If the Portugese can retain control over Angola and Mozambique, AND grow their relationship with Rhodesia, It also gives them a Country to trade with and bring in MUCH needed supplies once Vorster, South African PM, Gives up on Rhodesia (However with a more successful Rhodesia AND the Port. Colonies not collapseing he might never cut off trade in the first place.)
Also, Rhodesia will likely not face such huge casualties, again deminishing the power of the White settlers.

Overall, Portugal WILL NOT be able to hold onto the colonies for a long time. Decolonialization was at its height, and it wasn't stopping. However, Portugal will be able to hold onto them long enough to reestablish stable colonial governments where the Port. Settlers AND the black majority will be able to coexist and work together towards a more productive country. Mozambique and Angola will break away from Portugal peacefully and hopefully stable republics will emerge.

Back to Rhodesia, It still has the problem that it will never be accepted by the outside world. A Zimbabwe-Rhodesia will likely form, Where Whites hold a larger portion of Seats and power that their numbers afford, BUT it will be a majority rule government. Thatcher will be willing to accept this and it will be given recognition by the commonwealth states (She tried getting it in OTL so a more succesfull one should automaticly get it).

Southern Africa will be vastly different. It will be a Properous region with Angola/Mozambique/Zimbabwe-Rhodesia/South Africa forming a powerhouse of economic development. It is likely that this success will lead to middle african nations following suit.
 
Top